Typhoon Hunter

September 18, 2006

Yagi has been upgraded to a Severe Tropical Storm and is expected to reach typhoon intensity in 24hrs. Here's the latest JMA advisory:

Issued at 12:00 UTC 18 Sep 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME STS 0614 YAGI (0614) UPGRADED FROM TS

ANALYSIS

PSTN 181200UTC 20.7N 159.4E FAIR

MOVE E SLOWLY

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 050KT

30KT 140NM

FORECAST

24HF 191200UTC 20.3N 159.0E 80NM 70%

MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY

PRES 970HPA

MXWD 065KT

48HF 201200UTC 20.2N 154.8E 150NM 70%

MOVE W 09KT

PRES 960HPA

MXWD 070KT

72HF 211200UTC 21.7N 148.7E 220NM 70%

MOVE W 14KT

PRES 955HPA

MXWD 075KT

September 18, 2006

Here's the latest on Yagi from JMA:

Issued at 06:00 UTC 18 Sep 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 0614 YAGI (0614)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 180600UTC 20.7N 158.9E FAIR

MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY

PRES 990HPA

MXWD 045KT

30KT 130NM

FORECAST

24HF 190600UTC 20.2N 158.3E 80NM 70%

MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 050KT

48HF 200600UTC 20.0N 154.8E 150NM 70%

MOVE W 08KT

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 060KT

72HF 210600UTC 21.4N 148.7E 220NM 70%

MOVE W 14KT

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 070KT

Here's their forecast track:

September 18, 2006

Typhoon Shanshan has sadly killed 9 people in Southern Japan. Here's a link to some impressive pictures on Yahoo!, including a train which was blown over:

Typhoon Shanshan news pictures

Here's an article from Yahoo.

TOKYO (AFP) - Powerful typhoon Shanshan has moved off the Japanese west coast, after killing nine people, injuring 270 and leaving one person missing, as it cut across southern Japan, officials have said.
As of 11:00 am (0200 GMT), the typhoon was located 210 kilometers (130 miles) off the Japanese coastal city of Matsue in western Japan, the Japan Meteorological Agency said.
Shanshan, packing winds of up to 108 kilometers (70 miles), was moving toward the Russian coast, but was expected
(Advertisement)
to turn northeast to hit the northern Japanese island of Hokkaido by Wednesday morning, the agency added.
The agency issued high wave and strong wind warnings to areas along the Sea of Japan (East Sea).
It also warned of strong rains in the Kanto region, of which Tokyo is a part, and other areas.
"As the typhoon moves north, stronger winds are expected in the Hokuriku and Hokkaido regions along the Sea of Japan. Waves along the areas are likely to become suddenly high," the agency said.
The typhoon hit land near Sasebo on the southern island of Kyushu shortly after 6:00 pm (0900 GMT) Sunday on its way from the East China Sea.
In all, nine people, mostly in Kyushu, died during the weekend of storms in Japan.
A 39-year-old electrician died on the island Sunday afternoon, after an industrial container at his firm fell on top of him, according to the Fire and Disaster Management Agency.
Also in Kyushu, a moored ferry from Maldives overturned late Sunday, throwing five crew members to the sea, killing one of them. A local journalist covering the effect of the typhoon in western Hiroshima remained missing since Saturday night, the agency added.
An express train was blown off the tracks, in the city of Nobeoka, in Kyushu, slightly injuring six of some 45 passengers on board, police said.
A glass entrance of a supermarket in the city was crushed by flying debris, knocking down a shell with three people underneath it. One of them died after he was taken to hospital.

I hope they find the missing journalist in one piece.

September 17, 2006

As Peter said we now have TS Yagi far out in the Pacfic. Here's the latest from JMA:

Issued at 09:00 UTC 17 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 0614 YAGI (0614)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 170900UTC 21.0N 157.8E FAIR

MOVE N SLOWLY

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 035KT

30KT 70NM

FORECAST

24HF 180900UTC 21.4N 158.1E 80NM 70%

MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 040KT

45HF 190600UTC 22.2N 158.5E 150NM 70%

MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY

PRES 992HPA

MXWD 045KT

69HF 200600UTC 21.9N 156.2E 220NM 70%

MOVE W SLOWLY

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 050KT

Most agencies forecast a temporary track northwards before turning south then west.

September 16, 2006

Hi Craig, just looking at the latest sat and it appears the outer bands are clipping your area. I'm not expecting much in Shanghai but something lively could pop through!

Shanshan is trundling NE after hammering the Ryuku Islands. Geoff Mackley's website www.rambocam.com has a great sat pic of the islands in the eye wall. JMA have upgraded her to a 100kt system which is very big in JMA terms and expect her to make landfall in Kyushu in 24hrs as a 90kt system which is far more powerful than at first thought.

Here's their summary and warning track:

Issued at 09:00 UTC 16 Sep 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 160900UTC 26.5N 125.4E GOOD

MOVE NE 14KT

PRES 925HPA

MXWD 100KT

50KT 90NM

30KT 200NM

FORECAST

24HF 170900UTC 32.0N 129.4E 100NM 70%

MOVE NNE 18KT

PRES 935HPA

MXWD 090KT

45HF 180600UTC 37.6N 132.2E 160NM 70%

MOVE NNE 18KT

PRES 955HPA

MXWD 080KT

69HF 190600UTC 40.2N 133.4E 290NM 70%

MOVE N 06KT

PRES 970HPA

MXWD 065KT

Here's the latest sat courtesy of NRL Monterey TC page:

I also have my eye on invest 96W. This looks like it's almost reached TD strength and has been upgraded to "fair" by JTWC.

September 16, 2006

Hi Craig. It's pretty calm here in Shanghai at the moment with light rain and a slight breeze. Looking at the latest satellite pics the outflow isn't that far from Shanghai...will keep post again if conditions start deteriorating.

September 15, 2006

Typhoon Shanshan is bombing! JMA have upgraded her to a 90kts storm and JTWC have current 1 min winds estimated at 115kts. They expect her to intensify to 125kts. Taiwan is currently obscurred by the outflow and it looks like some strong embedded thunderstorms will be heading there from the north soon. The latest sat (courtesy of NRL Monterey) shows this nicely:

Since this is passing slap bang between Taiwan and Okinawa I'm unable to intercept, had she tracked 120nm east I'd have been on a plane 6 hours ago. Still I bet the wave show on the east coast of Taiwan is pretty insane!

September 15, 2006

Typhoon Shanshan has intenisfied and is looking beautiful just sitting off the east coast of Taiwan. JMA have her winds at 85kts (10 min) and JTWC 100kts (1 min.) CWB have issued sea warnings and the hourly track of the typhoon can be found on their website:

CWB website

Taiwanese radar is also picking up the eye nicely at the moment, here's the latest image courtesy of CWB:

Here's the latest visible sat image from NRL Monterey, it's very beautiful:

September 12, 2006

Shanshan up to 85kts now with pressure of 945HPA. JMA now forecasting to turn NW at T+72:

Issued at 06:00 UTC 12 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 120600UTC 19.7N 131.6E GOOD

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 945HPA

MXWD 085KT

50KT 70NM

30KT 150NM

FORECAST

24HF 130600UTC 20.3N 129.0E 80NM 70%

MOVE W 06KT

PRES 935HPA

MXWD 090KT

48HF 140600UTC 20.8N 127.2E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 930HPA

MXWD 095KT

72HF 150600UTC 22.1N 125.7E 220NM 70%

MOVE NW SLOWLY

PRES 925HPA

MXWD 095KT

Looks like this one could be for Okinawa...JTWC certainly think so:

September 12, 2006

Shanshan is really intensifying nicely. JMA expect her to become a 95kt typhoon! Will be interesting to see if they forecast a re-curve...at the moment they have a WNW track for forecast period:

Issued at 03:00 UTC 12 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 120300UTC 19.6N 131.8E GOOD

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 955HPA

MXWD 080KT

50KT 70NM

30KT 150NM

FORECAST

24HF 130300UTC 20.5N 129.0E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 06KT

PRES 940HPA

MXWD 085KT

45HF 140000UTC 21.2N 127.4E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 930HPA

MXWD 090KT

69HF 150000UTC 22.0N 125.8E 220NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 925HPA

MXWD 095KT

It's possible to make out the eye on latest visible sat image. Courtesy of NRL Monterey TC page:

September 11, 2006

Ok here's what I've been able to gather regarding Shanshan. First of all I'll start with JMA who is the official forecasting agency for this area. They have upgraded Shanshan to a severe tropical storm (STS):

Issued at 12:00 UTC 11 Sep 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME STS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 111200UTC 18.8N 133.2E FAIR

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 055KT

50KT 40NM

30KT 130NM

FORECAST

24HF 121200UTC 20.2N 131.7E 80NM 70%

MOVE NW SLOWLY

PRES 960HPA

MXWD 075KT

48HF 131200UTC 21.1N 129.6E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 950HPA

MXWD 080KT

72HF 141200UTC 21.5N 127.5E 220NM 70%

MOVE W SLOWLY

PRES 940HPA

MXWD 085KT

CWB of Taiwan have also upgraded Shanshan and have a similar forcast track:

Even the mainland Chinese (CMA) with they're wonderfully clear map agree with the Taiwanese on something!

In addition there's the forecast from HKO which John posted earlier this afternoon which shows a similar track to the above mentioned agencies.

Then's there's JTWC. They are really plugging the re-curve option now and strengthen Shanshan into a 115kt howler near Okinawa. Here's their latest chart:

Hopefully things will be a bit clearer in 24hrs time. Luckily for me this system has been slow moving so far, as I mentioned earlier I will not be able to travel until Friday 0100z when I pick up my passport from Shanghai Immigration Office. The way the JMA forecast is going I'm on standby to intercept....time will tell.

P.S Apologies to users whose computers may take a while to load all the pics.

September 11, 2006

John thanks for posting that, was about to check up on HKO forecast track, even Shanghai Typhoon Institute (part of CMA) forecast Shanshan to move toward Taiwan. I'll write a longer post once the latest JTWC track comes out within the hour...I have a feeling the poleward turn is going to become less and less prominent. We'll see!

September 11, 2006

Tropical Storm Shanshan is intensifying quite rapidly at the moment but there still remains a sharp contrast in forecast track between JTWC and JMA/CWB. Here's the latest JMA summary:

Issued at 03:00 UTC 11 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 110300UTC 18.2N 133.9E FAIR

MOVE NNW SLOWLY

PRES 990HPA

MXWD 045KT

30KT 130NM

FORECAST

24HF 120300UTC 20.2N 131.2E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 08KT

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 060KT

45HF 130000UTC 20.9N 128.7E 150NM 70%

MOVE W 06KT

PRES 960HPA

MXWD 075KT

69HF 140000UTC 21.0N 126.4E 220NM 70%

MOVE W SLOWLY

PRES 950HPA

MXWD 080KT

They expect her to track towards S Taiwan. This is in contrast to JTWC who expect Shanshan to make a more poleward turn later on in forecast period:

However, regardless of differences in forecast track, Shanshan is expected to intensify and is already looking great on satellite, could teach Florence a lesson or two in presenting herself! Courtesy of NRL Monterey:

September 10, 2006

JMA forecasts Shanshan head westward towards S Taiwan/ Phillipines, so things are quite conflicting at the moment which is to be expected. I just hope this doesn't intensify into a beast and make landfall before Friday. My passport is with the Public Security Bureau until Friday thus rendering me immobile!!

September 10, 2006

Well it took less than 24 hours for Shanshan to be upgraded to a tropical storm. Here's what JMA have to say:

T0613 (SHANSHAN)

Issued at 12:00 UTC 10 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 0613 SHANSHAN (0613) UPGRADED FROM TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 101200UTC 16.8N 134.8E POOR

MOVE NW 08KT

PRES 1000HPA

MXWD 035KT

30KT 90NM

FORECAST

24HF 111200UTC 18.8N 132.8E 80NM 70%

MOVE NW 06KT

PRES 994HPA

MXWD 040KT

48HF 121200UTC 19.8N 130.4E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW 06KT

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 050KT

72HF 131200UTC 20.0N 127.7E 220NM 70%

MOVE W 06KT

PRES 970HPA

MXWD 065KT

They expect Shanshan to intensify and reach minimal typhoon strength within 72hrs.

The Taiwanese forecast Shanshan to head in the direction of Taiwan and the Ryuku Islands. Here's their forecast track:

Finally JTWC have a similar track at first but then expect it to make a more NW turn after T+72:

Of course anything after T+72 is highly uncertain so we'll have to wait and see where this is likely to make landfall (if she doesn't recurve.)

September 10, 2006

Looks like we could have a TS within the next 24hrs. Here's the latest gale warning from JMA:

WARNING AND SUMMARY 100000.

WARNING VALID 110000.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

GALE WARNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPAAT 15.0N 136.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08KNOTS.POSITION POOR.

MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXPECTED MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 16.7N 133.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUSOF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

Here's the latest JTWC track:

September 9, 2006

JMA have now upgraded the low pressure area (94W) to a TD. Here's their latest summary:

SUMMARY.

LOW 1006 HPA AT 51N 131E NNE 20 KT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 14N 138E WEST SLOWLY.

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 22N 124E WSW SLOWLY.

LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 28N 162E WNW 10 KT.

HIGH 1028 HPA AT 38N 106E SE 10 KT.

HIGH 1026 HPA AT 47N 174E ESE 15 KT.

September 8, 2006

Well it looks like the NWP might be waking up, however it better not wake up to much until next Friday when I can collect my passport from the immigration bureau where my residence permit is being processed! Here's the latest from JMA:

SUMMARY.

(1) LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 24N 129E ALMOST STATIONARY.

(2)LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 143E ALMOST STATIONARY.

(3)LOW PRESSURE AREA 1010 HPA NEAR 26N 166E NNW 10 KT.

HIGH 1026 HPA AT 49N 156E ALMOST STATIONARY.HIGH 1026 HPA AT 39N 176E ALMOST STATIONARY.

STATIONARY FRONT FROM 32N 108E TO 34N 114E 37N 117E 40N 122E 44N 125E44N 129E.

STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 141E TO 38N 145E 42N 147E 42N 151E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

#1 is invest 95W.

#2 is invest area 94W. JTWC has the following on this disturbance:

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 13.4N 140.3E,

APPROXIMATELY 240 NM WEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE

IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR A POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL

CIRCULATION CENTER. A 080122Z AMSU PASS SHOWED AN ELONGATED LOW

LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEVELOPING CONVECTIVE BANDS OVER THE

NORTH SEMICIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE CENTER

IS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, THE AREA IS SOUTHWEST

OF A TUTT CELL WITH WEAK EASTWARD OUTFLOW AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD

OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15

KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

#3 is way out in the ocean and is invest 92W.

94W is the area I'm gonna keep a close eye on at the moment.

September 3, 2006

The latest Guam IR sat loop shows nicely how Ioke is becoming more ragged:

Guam IR sat loop

September 3, 2006

Looks like Ioke is going to recurve before hitting mainland Japan. Here's the latest from JMA:

Issued at 06:00 UTC 3 Sep 2006RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 030600UTC 25.6N 152.6E GOOD

MOVE WNW 12KT

PRES 945HPA

MXWD 085KT

50KT 150NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST

30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 220NM SOUTHWEST

FORECAST

24HF 040600UTC 28.4N 148.2E 80NM 70%

MOVE NW 12KT

PRES 945HPA

MXWD 085KT

48HF 050600UTC 32.2N 145.2E 150NM 70%

MOVE N 11KT

PRES 950HPA

MXWD 080KT

72HF 060600UTC 37.7N 147.2E 290NM 70%

MOVE NNE 14KT

PRES 960HPA

MXWD 075KT

September 2, 2006

Blackie it's forecast to head towards south coast of Honshu. Here's JMA map:

September 2, 2006

The image below gives some scale and goes to show how huge Ioke is. Taken from Digital Typhoon.org:

September 2, 2006

Ioke has weakened but is still a potent TC. Here's the latest from JMA:

Issued at 03:00 UTC 2 Sep 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 020300UTC 23.2N 158.4E GOOD

MOVE WNW 15KT

PRES 935HPA

MXWD 095KT

50KT 140NM NORTHEAST 95NM SOUTHWEST

30KT 300NM NORTHEAST 200NM SOUTHWEST

FORECAST

24HF 030300UTC 24.8N 153.3E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 12KT

PRES 930HPA

MXWD 100KT

45HF 040000UTC 26.5N 149.6E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW 10KT

PRES 935HPA

MXWD 095KT

69HF 050000UTC 28.2N 145.8E 220NM 70%

MOVE WNW 09KT

PRES 940HPA

MXWD 090KT

As for forcast track, JMA forecast Ioke to head towards southern Japan. JTWC has Ioke passing close to Tokyo but staying off shore on the 7th with winds of 90kts gusting to 110kts. CWB of Taiwan have a similar forecast track to JMA.

September 1, 2006

Ioke now looks to be heading in the direction of Iwo Jima if I'm not mistaken. Looks more and more likely it could end up hitting mainland Japan. Here's the latest forecast from JMA, they still want to keep Ioke at 105kts for 45+ hours:

Issued at 03:00 UTC 1 Sep 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0612 IOKE (0612)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 010300UTC 21.0N 164.0E GOOD

MOVE WNW 10KT

PRES 920HPA

MXWD 105KT

50KT 100NM

30KT 240NM NORTHEAST 180NM SOUTHWEST

FORECAST

24HF 020300UTC 22.6N 159.2E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 10KT

PRES 920HPA

MXWD 105KT

45HF 030000UTC 23.9N 154.2E 150NM 70%

MOVE W 14KT

PRES 920HPA

MXWD 105KT

69HF 040000UTC 25.8N 149.5E 220NM 70%

MOVE WNW 11KT

PRES 930HPA

MXWD 100KT

August 31, 2006

BBC Weather website World News section has the following today:

Whole island evacuated as super typhoon makes final approach by Sean Batty
Earlier in the week we said that ex hurricane Ioke, which is now a super typhoon could be heading towards the tiny Mid-Pacific island of Wake. We expect the storm to smash into Wake later this afternoon.
The island is home to a U.S Air Force base, which has around 200 personnel based at it. U.S authorities evacuated the entire island of people on Monday afternoon and flying them to the safe haven of Hawaii.
The decision was taken after forecast from the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) showed that the storms eye would cross directly over the island.
It will also bring a surge of water up to 30ft (9.1 metres) in height which could submerge many parts of the 2.5 square mile island, where the highest point is around 18ft, bringing devastation to the island.
According to a NWS forecaster, Ioke is currently ranked the fifth-strongest storm ever seen in the Central Pacific, and is the first Category 5 storm in the region since 1994.
The typhoon is one of the longest-sustained storms in world history, having stayed at Category 4 for a week. Current winds in this monster are whipping round at a steady speed of 155mph, while gusts have been reported in excess of an astonishing 190mph.
The island saw another devastating typhoon nearly 40 years ago. "Sarah" roared through with winds just as strong. National Weather Service accounts say torrential rains battered the island. Buildings were ripped apart.
The water went right across Wake Island and, for a short time, it was submerged.
Those brought to safety aren't sure what will be left when Ioke's gone but grateful to be far from the path of the typhoon.

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