[Nw Pacific Activity]

JMA have max winds of 90kts for Saomai, it has really intensified more so than expected. The latest sat image of Saomai with the rest of the NWP is stunning. The region is boiling and on top of the three active tropical cyclones there are three invest areas 92/93/94W. The image two posts above automatically updates so I won't post it again here!

Here's the latest data from JMA on Saomai, still forecast to track to the north of Taiwan:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0608 SAOMAI (0608)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 090600UTC 24.7N 126.9E GOOD

MOVE WNW 15KT

PRES 930HPA

MXWD 090KT

50KT 70NM

30KT 160NM EAST 100NM WEST

FORECAST

24HF 100600UTC 27.0N 120.5E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 15KT

PRES 950HPA

MXWD 080KT

48HF 110600UTC 30.0N 114.5E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

Tropical Storm Bopha has made landfall on Taiwan and is now entering the South China Sea. JTWC forecast it to intensify to 40kts and pass very close by Hong Kong whereas JMA expect it to weaken to a TD.

I do not expect it to be long before the next TC forms. SSTs around 92W are approaching 30C and wind sheer is low and is expected to drop further. Watch this space!

Plus I'll repost the link for Taiwan's radar as Saomai passes to the north...it will be a great image! P.K those are interesting posts over on UKWW, I'll subscribe to the forum tomorrow.

[Nw Pacific Activity]

Bust on the interception of Typhoon Saomai. As is the case with chasing/intercepting never get your hopes up until all hell is breaking loose around you!

So we still have our three tropical cyclones in the NW Pacfic.

Severe Tropical Storm Maria is wobbling her way towards the big island of Japan. Current winds are blowing at 50kts and is forecast to weaken to a TD after 48hrs due to land interation.

Typhoon Saomai (Name of planet Venus. Name contributed by: Vietnam) is packing winds of 70kts and is forecast to pass between the Ryuku Islands and Taiwan blowing 80kts. Here's the latest JMA data:

NAME TY 0608 SAOMAI(0608)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 080600UTC 21.6N 132.9E GOOD

MOVE WNW 12KT

PRES 960HPA

MXWD 070KT

50KT 50NM

30KT 150NM

FORECAST

24HF 090600UTC 25.2N 127.0E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 16KT

PRES 955HPA

MXWD 075KT

48HF 100600UTC 27.1N 120.9E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW 14KT

PRES 950HPA

MXWD 080KT

72HF 110600UTC 29.2N 114.9E 220NM 70%

MOVE WNW 14KT

PRES 990HPA

MXWD 040KT

Severe Tropical Storm Bopha (meaning "Flower" common name for little girls. Name contributed by: Cambodia) is lingering offshore Taiwan. Currently blowing 50kts and forecast to make landfall in central Taiwan over the next day or so. Here's a link to Taiwanese radar:

http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V5e/index.htm click on the radar link on the left hand column.

Here's the latest sat image of NWP as a whole...pretty chaotic!

Ciao for now, James!

[Nw Pacific Activity]

Hello all!

It's very late so just a quick message. The forecast track of TY Saomi is looking quite pants now (since it'll be passing more or less bang in between Taiwan and Okinawa thus having minimal effect on each) and it's not forecast to become that strong so unless things change drastically in the next 12 hours I ain't gonna bother going after this one. If she was due to make landfall on Taiwan I'd head up even though it ain't that strong, to test out my new camera gear, however this is unlikely to happen

Best be patient and wait for the big momma!

Will post more in depth update on NW Pacfic tomorrow, ciao for now!

James. :lol:

[Nw Pacific Activity]

Greetings all.

Please forgive me, for purely selfish reasons I'm going to refrain from giving updates on TSs Maria and Bopha and concentrate on STS/TY Saomai. JMA report that Saomai is now a Severe Tropical Storm with wind of 60kts (10 min average.) JTWC (sorry P.K I know it's not official but an interesting read none the less) (1 min average) have already upgraded her to a typhoon and here's their latest prognostic reasoning:

2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 071200Z TO 111200Z AUG 2006. A. TYPHOON (TY) 08W (SAOMAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM NORTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. A 062300Z TRMM IMAGE SHOWS THAT TY 08W A BANDING EYE HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS.

B. TY 08W CONTINUES TO STEER NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION LOCATED WEST OF TY 08W IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO THIS NORTH- WESTWARD MOTION. THE FORECAST TRACK WILL REORIENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AFTER TAU 48 AS THE STEERING RIDGE BUILDS WESTWARD. INTERACTION WITH TS 10W MAY CAUSE A POLEWARD SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, BUT DECREASE THERE- AFTER. DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL FORECASTS AFTER TAU 36 RESULT FROM VARIATION IN THE WESTWARD EXTENSION OF THE STEERING RIDGE. THE SOLE OUTLIER IS TCLAPS, WHICH FORECASTS A POLEWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE AIDS WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON TCLAPS.

C. TY 08W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH TAU 48. IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUPPORT THIS CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION. INTRUSION OF DRY, CONTINENTAL AIR AND INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL IMPEDE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AFTER TAU 48.

D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 062000Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM. E. AFTER TAU 72, THE STEERING RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SLIGHTLY, CAUSING TY 08W TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD BRIEFLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN SOUTHEASTERN CHINA PRIOR TO TAU 96. DISRUP- TION OF THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW, INTRUSION OF DRY AIR AND INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND.

The Taiwanese, Americans and Japanese all have very similar forecast tracks with JTWC suggesting her passing just to the south of Okinawa blowing at 115kts! With the possibility of a more poleward turn later in the forecast period Okinawa looks like the place to be. If things don't change drastically in the next 12 hours I'm gonna hot leg it to Bangkok and proceed from there. I'll post updates as and when things emerge!

Ciao, James.

[Nw Pacific Activity]

The NW Pacific is going nuts at the moment and the image below shows this nicely:

STS Maria (0607) is packing 50kt winds at the moment and is still forecast to head towards Kyushu.

TS Saomi (0608) has jogged westwards over the past few hours. and is packing winds of 45kts. It's heading in the direction of Okinawa.

TS Bopha (0609) is packing 45kts too and is forecast to head towards the Bashi Channel/Straight (between the Phillipines and Taiwan.

Saomi is the one i'm keeping my eye on for the best bet for intercepting...still way too far off to tell now though. Eye's will be peeled indeed!

[Nw Pacific Activity]

P.K. is right, not confusing if one follows JMA (had my eyeballs in a twist, too much Tiger beer last night! )

Here's how things stand in the NWP at the moment. We now have two tropical storms swirling in the NW Pacific - TS Maria (0607) and TS Saomai (0608) and an unnumbered TD.

Maria is forecast to intensify into a 55kt system and head in the general direction of Kyushu (S Island of Japan.) Saomi, which has just affected Guam, is forecast to move in a NW direction towards Okinawa and Kyushu. Here's the latest JMA data for Saomai:

T0608 (SAOMAI)

Issued at 03:00 UTC 6 Aug 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 0608 SAOMAI (0608)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 060300UTC 14.4N 143.6E FAIR

MOVE NW 13KT

PRES 996HPA

MXWD 040KT

30KT 170NM

FORECAST

24HF 070300UTC 18.7N 140.2E 80NM 70%

MOVE NW 13KT

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 050KT

45HF 080000UTC 22.0N 138.2E 150NM 70%

MOVE NW 11KT

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 060KT

69HF 090000UTC 26.0N 134.9E 220NM 70%

MOVE NW 12KT

PRES 970HPA

MXWD 065KT

Eyes also on the area of convection about 330nm SE of Okinawa which has developed into a TD within the last 12 hours or so.

Meanwhile here are some links for youtube videos of TY Prapiroon's effects in HK and Macau (kindly searched and posted by Isaac over on weather.org.hk forum)

Rain and wind

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGOfniey7Mw

A US traveller walked on the street in Macau

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mYAT_8lGAKo

Near HK University

[Nw Pacific Activity]

Things have been slightly confusing recently!

JMA is now listing 3 numbered systems:

0606 - TY Prapiroon which has more or less dissipated

0607 - TS Maria which has just been upgraded from TD (incidently JTWC are referring to this as a subtropical system!)

0608 - TS Saomi which has just been upgraded and is located about 300nm SE of Guam

Forecasts for 0608 are a bit chaotic at the moment. JMA has a more poleward track compared to JTWC. The JTWC prognostic reasoning makes for an interesting read in regards to conflicting model forecasts. It's slightly out of date but still seems to confirm the differing tracks at the moment:

TD 08W IS FORECAST TO TRACK TOWARDS A WEAKNESS IN THE SUB-

TROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED SOUTHEAST OF JAPAN. THIS WEAKNESS

IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE EAST OF IWO JIMA. AS THE

SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE PROGRESSES WESTWARD, THE RIDGE WILL ALSO BUILD

WESTWARD, CAUSING TD 08W TO BEGIN TO TURN WESTWARD AFTER TAU 24. MODEL

GUIDANCE, CONSISTING OF NCEP GFS, AFWA MM5, JGSM, UKMET EGRR, WBAR

AND THE BETA AND ADVECTION MODELS (BAMS), ON THIS SYSTEM IS MINIMAL

AND IN POOR AGREEMENT. AFWA MM5 AND JGSM FORECAST A SHARP TURN POLE-

WARD EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. BASED ON PERSISTENT EASTERLY 500MB

WINDS AT GUAM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, THIS SOLUTION IS CONSIDERED LESS

LIKELY. THE SOUTHERN CLUSTER, INCLUDING UKMET EGRR, NCEP GFS, WBAR AND

THE BAMS, FORECASTS A STRONGER STEERING RIDGE AND A SUBSEQUENT TURN

WESTWARD AFTER TAU 24. THE AVAILABLE NCEP GFS TRACKER TRANSITIONS TO

A DIFFERENT CIRCULATION CENTER AFTER TAU 36, CAUSING A SHARP EQUATOR-

WARD TURN. THIS FORECAST IS BASED ON THE SOUTHERN FORECAST CLUSTER

WITH LESS EMPHASIS ON NCEP GFS AFTER TAU 36.

I'll try and make more head and tail of this tomorrow when I haven't had so much beer (don't worry UK readers in 10.20pm where I am now, not mid afternoon! )

[Nw Pacific Activity]

JTWC has issued warning #2 for 08W and forecast it becoming a typhoon 3 days from now. Here's a great loop showing the convection around Guam at the moment...the area is really going nuts!

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamircolor.html

Here's the latest text from JMA:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPAAT

24.7N 147.0E EASTSOUTHEAST OF OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING WESTNORTHWEST14 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 24 HOURS.FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 26.0N 142.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUSOF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.WARNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPAAT 10.0N 148.5E CAROLINES MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.POSITION POOR.MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

Here's an article I found about the effects of Prapiroon's landfall...details sure to change over time:

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/05082006/323/typh...s-31-china.html

[Nw Pacific Activity]

Hi parmenides - it's interesting that you should mention that, because I had a rant just the other day about this. I suppose it's lack of English language media coverage over here.

Prapiroon is dissipating rapidly over S China.

The Pacific is like a kettle now. Here's SST's from this morning (Asia time):

http://www.oceanweather.com/data/NPAC-Western/sst.html

JTWC has three watch areas at the moment, one of which (99W) has a fair chance of developing over the next 24hrs in a TC. This sat image shows the disturbances nicely:

I caught a glimpse of that invest is the S Pacific...would have been entertaining if it developed!!

[Nw Pacific Activity]

TY Prapiroon is just making landfall on the southern Chinese coast and the inner bands are buffeting Hong Kong and Macau. Here's an interesting composite movie I found showing the tack of the typhoon:

http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/...EG-1/200606.mpg

[Nw Pacific Activity]

TY Prapiroon has been making a more Northerly track than first expected. The outer bands are affecting Hong Kong with heavy squalls and strong winds being reported there. Here's the latest from JMA:

T0606 (PRAPIROON)

Issued at 06:00 UTC 3 Aug 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0606 PRAPIROON (0606)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 030600UTC 20.9N 112.2E FAIR

MOVE NNW 09KT

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 070KT

50KT 60NM

30KT 240NM EAST 200NM WEST

FORECAST

24HF 040600UTC 22.1N 109.8E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 06KT

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 060KT

48HF 050600UTC 23.1N 107.9E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 992HPA

MXWD 040KT

72HF 060600UTC 24.0N 106.2E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[Nw Pacific Activity]

Indeed we now have Typhoon Prapiroon, as P.K said recently upgraded, here's the latest from JMA:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) UPGRADED FROM STS

ANALYSIS

PSTN 021200UTC 19.2N 113.7E FAIR

MOVE WNW 10KT

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 065KT

50KT 50NM

30KT 200NM

FORECAST

24HF 031200UTC 20.2N 110.6E 80NM 70%

MOVE W 07KT

PRES 960HPA

MXWD 075KT

48HF 041200UTC 21.4N 108.6E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 055KT

72HF 051200UTC 22.1N 107.1E 220NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 992HPA

MXWD 040KT

The more northerly track in the last few hours has really got the folks on the Hong Kong weather board going!

[Nw Pacific Activity]

Here's the latest from JMA on STS Prapiroon;

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME STS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606)

ANALYSIS

PSTN 020300UTC 18.6N 115.1E FAIR

MOVE NW 07KT

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 055KT

50KT 40NM

30KT 200NM

FORECAST

24HF 030300UTC 19.9N 111.9E 80NM 70%

MOVE WNW 08KT

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 070KT

45HF 040000UTC 20.3N 110.7E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW 06KT

PRES 970HPA

MXWD 065KT

69HF 050000UTC 21.8N 108.9E 220NM 70%

MOVE NW SLOWLY

PRES 985HPA

MXWD 050KT

Still headed in the general direction of Hainan Island.

[Tropical Depression 8-e]

Hi summer blizzard..

which Ts is this one..is it to do with Chris? http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurricane...getype=position

,..differnt positions so I assume not

08E is a Tropical Depression in the Northeast Pacific and has nothing to do with Chris in the Atlantic. There are currently 2 systems in the NE Pacific, one in NW Pacific and one in the Atlantic.

[Nw Pacific Activity]

Greetings folks!

The NE Pacific is currently 1 tropical cyclone ahead of the NW. First warning for 08E has just been issued.

In the NW Pacific region TD 07W has been upgraded to a TS and is now in the South China Sea with winds at 35kts

Here's the latest from JMA:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TS 0606 PRAPIROON (0606) UPGRADED FROM TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 010600UTC 17.0N 117.7E FAIR

MOVE WNW 07KT

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 035KT

30KT 110NM

FORECAST

24HF 020600UTC 17.9N 114.7E 80NM 70%

MOVE W 07KT

PRES 990HPA

MXWD 045KT

48HF 030600UTC 18.8N 112.6E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 980HPA

MXWD 055KT

72HF 040600UTC 20.0N 110.9E 220NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 975HPA

MXWD 060KT

It's unlikely I'll go for this system. However eyes out to the east, this is from typhoon2000.ph:

TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH: Meanwhile, the new Tropical

Disturbance (LPA/98W/1005 mb) is now starting to consoli-

date over the Caroline Islands with a distance of about

495 km SW of Guam (9.8N 142.1E)...almost stationary over

the past 6 hours...sustained winds remains at 30 km/hr.

Watch for more updates soon..please stay tuned.

Su Rui Ke, I'll be moving up to Shanghai on 1st September and will be looking to intercept typhoons on the East coast. I'll let you know if I'm passing through Ningbo (maybe hook up for a Qingdao or two! B) )

[Nw Pacific Activity]

Hello all.

Typhoon Kaemi is now the 3rd typhoon on the NW Pacfic season. Here's the latest data according to JMA:

T0605 (KAEMI)

Issued at 06:00 UTC 21 Jul 2006

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TY 0605 KAEMI (0605) UPGRADED FROM STS

ANALYSIS

PSTN 210600UTC 15.8N 132.8E FAIR

MOVE WNW 13KT

PRES 965HPA

MXWD 070KT

50KT 60NM

30KT 220NM

The current forecast track is split at the moment. JTWC and CWB (Taiwan) have similar tracks forecasting the typhoon to make landfall on east coast of Taiwan.

The JMA track takes Kaemi more northwards towards the Ryuku islands instead.

Should Kaemi stay on a track toward Taiwan and not be forecast to weaken considerabley near landfall, I'll be on a flight over there. I'm currently in Bangkok and really enjoying the tropical sun kick off the convection!

James

P.S from Typhoon2000.ph

KAEMI {pronounced: gae~mi}, meaning: An ant. A very

small insect that lives in highly organized groups.

It often appears in Korean fairy tales as a symbol

of diligence. Name contributed by: Republic of Korea.

[Nw Pacific Activity]

Hey guys.

This is my first post on here, and look forward to posting more as the summer months wear on and activity in the N hemisphere really kicks off!

06W has formed in the NW Pacific. This is the latest from JMA:

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME TD

ANALYSIS

PSTN 180900UTC 09.5N 145.0E POOR

MOVE W SLOWLY

PRES 1006HPA

MXWD 030KT

FORECAST

24HF 190900UTC 10.4N 143.0E 150NM 70%

MOVE WNW SLOWLY

PRES 998HPA

MXWD 035KT