Snowyowl9
-
Posts
9,970 -
Joined
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Snowyowl9
-
-
Very wise words Anti-mild.
I remember last Autumn reading forecast's for the US based on SST's that they were going to have a very harsh winter and yet apart from early Dec the rest of the winter was above average. I believe that when it comes to a LRF you have as much chance of being correct by using instincts than science. For example if somebody posted a forecast in Nov for Dec/Jan/Feb based on instincts and then you compared this forecast to someone who used SST's/teleconnections, both IMO would have an equal chance of being correct.
This summer has been a very good example because back in May WIB suggested a very warm/hot June & July and by what I read a majority of his forecast was based on instincts and yet he was the only one to be right on this forum.
Im sure science is the answer to a successful LRF but at the moment nobody IMO has enough understanding of SST's/Teleconnections etc to understand how they affect our climate. Due to so many factors going into making our climate instincts is just as good as science in making a successful LRF at the moment.
I based my autumn mini forecast on instincts earlier in this thread it`ll be interesting to see how much of it will happen it would be great if it did
but I`ll be surprised if it did happen like that.But it`s along while until the end of november anything can happen and usually does surprise when you least expect it too.
As far as the SST`s/Teleconnections it`s very interesting and complex at the same time,so I`ll leave that to the experts on here GP/S.Murr/SB to solve it`s all very new to me,I`ve always been interested in the weather patterns,they always use to show the pressure charts on the bbc weather years ago,I`d rather see those types of charts,back in 1986 they had those I remember it well when they showed the Scandi high bringing those juicey 1st n.e. winds for the start of that amazingly long cold winter.
S9
-
Expect a few frosts then
It`s hopecasting,although nothing`s impossible so they say.
S9.
-
Thanks for all the replies very interesting,I never checked all of the 1977 nov charts,they look much more impressive now TWS. than that one I put up,I see what you mean with the mild air coming in, it happened them days aswell then.
I`m surprised anyone would remember that november BFTP,I wish I could remember much more from the late 70`s
or even better go back in time So that was an unusual event for snow in your part of the world and cornwall for november in a normal winter let alone in the G.W age.
I`ll check those radar archives Jackone.
S9.
-
If we were to get a significant northerly this November, it would be the first time we'd had northerly incursions in three successive Novembers since 1978/79/80.
Certainly not impossible, but it would be interesting if it did happen.
There was a northerly in november 1977 also, but not quite as impressive as those 3 years you mentioned.
I wouldn`t of thought anyone could remember this one.
S9.
-
Very snowy on 25 November last year with 4 inches of snow on the grass (properly measured) and closer to 2 inches on other surfaces.
The heaviest snow fell between 6-8am in the morning, a good time for snow sticking.
Very unusually the snow stuck around to give a snow day for 3 days before gradually thawing away.
Some photos on the BBC website
http://www.bbc.co.uk/wales/southwest/sites...ow05_2.shtml?13
You did very well from that setup,it was more of a straight northerly which we don`t do so well from,n.w. are better.
When was the last time you had that amount of snow in any previous novembers?
Those links don`t seem to work that Helly Hanson put up.
S9.
-
On the subject of November N'erlies, I was quite impressed how potent the N'erly was at the end of last November here, on the 25th the temp got no higher than 2.5C with snow showers with a min overnight of -8.5C, something we haven't seen in Jan or Feb in some of the warmer winters more recently. Though the Easterly of 1993 was even colder around here, with 3 or 4 days with maxes of just 2C.
We had the same temperature as you that day also at 2.5c with a few light snow/hail showers which only brought a dusting, because the next day 26th it thawed.
Max that day was 5c.
The lowest temperature during the actual northerly got down to -3.1c.
We had colder nights before the northerly set in must of been when we had high pressure.
S9
-
Is it me or what as I havn`t seen many wasps about this summer.
Just the odd one or 2 about after such a hot July I would of thought there would of been more about.
Not many people like wasps me for one as when they start stinging they won`t stop and I swell right up if I get stung on my hands.
S9.
-
It was between Anvil crawler and John Cox for me.
I voted Anvil Crawler because I love lightning and that`s amazing capture.
But John`s is such a fantastic crisp, clear photo I would of voted for both if I could.
S9.
-
If we were to get a significant northerly this November, it would be the first time we'd had northerly incursions in three successive Novembers since 1978/79/80.
Certainly not impossible, but it would be interesting if it did happen.
We`re overdue then
S9.
-
As far as autumn goes I say september will be cool unsettled, october may start of cool then it`ll settle down to bring a warmer period later in the month then I think november will start mild then we`ll get a very cold northerly with a strong greenland high and hopefully it will be better than last years november northerly, as we got hardly any snow from that, west wales and cornwall got the brunt of that.
I`ve seen much better november`s for snow than that.
That`s as far as I`m going to go at the moment.
S9.
-
In other words it`s going to be a mixed winter
Very funny forecast :lol:
S9.
-
I`ve only just found this thread
I don`t remember anything about this it must be hidden in the back of my mind somewhere :lol:
As SB ask the wind speeds look very strong indeed on that,the east wind looks like severe gales easy to me unusual for easterlies/west winds yes.
Lots of trees came down that`s what I read somewhere.
S9
-
wev'e got the reds back up here in co durham,thanks to a tollerance of the greys,SHOOT TO KILL :lol:
Yes they do get shot around here not that many about here now more rabbits than anything.
I did see 1 the other day tho.
Crimsone they were planted.
:lol:
How do you reply like you just did 2 or 3 times on the same reply :lol:
S9
-
I knew it was an imported tree but I didn`t know that it carried disease either,we have alot of old sycamore trees here infact we have a wood of them,I certainly agree about the grey squirel is a pest to say the least,bring back the red squirel I say
They`ve had a rough time from the grey,and I`ve just heard the other day that about some virus from the grey to the red,they are still in parts of the country Scotland/parts of north wales :lol:
The grey ones also rip the bark off trees especially sycamore.
As far as disease is concered the rhododendrum,as I heard this over 1 year ago it`s the carrier and it spreads the disease to the beech especially,there are a few other spiecies,this importing is no good bringing disease in.
Squirrels are also imported/dutch elm disease I could go on.
:lol:
Beech is my favourite spieces too.
:lol:
I like all trees actually especially the broad leaf ones.
Sitka spruce was one of the low risk to get this disease.
S9
-
Can we destroy the sycamore while we're at it? that needs to go too... ...And himilayan balsam - evil stuff.
Actually, I find it quite incredible that the government can consider declaring open season on badgers, but not on those plants above.
Why the sycamore?
S9.
-
I think you maybe thinking of 26th July 1985, there were some severe thunderstorms then, Northern Ireland really got hit. We had a couple of thunderstorms here in Manchester.
Thanks for that.
It was school holiday time that`s why I remember as I left by 1987 and I don`t recall much that summer.
S9
-
This has reared it`s ugly head again has it
rhododendron spreads this disease to the trees as it`s the carrier, it needs to be destroyed it`s no good for nothing, this I don`t want to see,good thing that plant isn`t around here.S9.
-
It will always remain a planet to me.
S9.
-
Does anyone remember these storms or I'm the only one?
For some reason I don`t remember any severe storms in 1987.
Do you remember any severe thunderstorms in august 1985 in england/wales?
This was on a friday only event.
S9.
-
I`m going to go for a cool september this year at 13.7c.
S9.
-
Sounds like there`s quite alot of thunder around today.
Nothing like that here just a few showers although I may of heard 1 rumble but I was in the house, not surprising as it looked black all of east side of here.
Max of 18.4c
Wind is now light n.e.
-
Warmer with a little more sunshine,but still plenty of cloud 20.1 max.
Wind light s.w.
Some patchy rain on and off now.
S9
-
Better day today but still very cloudy with odd glimpses of the sun,1 or 2 v.light showers too.
Wind moderate west.
max of 18.1c
-
A cold polar vortex has already developed early this season in the Artic....
Here illustrated on the 12Z ECM for the Artic- day 3
There is some sub -10C air at the heart of that which is around 6-10 degrees cooler than normal....
S
This does look promising as much as I remember the cold winters of the 80`s.
I don`t expect any like that but slightly colder and snowier than last year will do me.
:lol:
but I`ll be surprised if it did happen like that.
rhododendron spreads this disease to the trees as it`s the carrier, it needs to be destroyed it`s no good for nothing, this I don`t want to see,good thing that plant isn`t around here.
Autumn And Winter
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
It`s like the old saying there`s alot of berries on the trees this year which there is especially the rowan.
I`ve never gone by it.
S9.