jcw

Maybe they do have a clue...and it's to BE average? You can't expect Met Office to come out with "committed" forecasts like Madden (who should be committed) and forecast one extreme or another when the signals just aren't there...yet anyway? They can surely only go on what the models are showing which, at this time, must only be average conditions until something changes that viewpoint. As they say "no strong signal in weather patterns" but hopefully that will change soon enough for them to be more 'certain' if you can ever be certain about a weather forecast over a 15-30 day period!! Joe

"Damning verdict of Chion..."??? I don't see that, Hocus and if that's the rash reply you refer back to maybe just delete it? Otherwise, what BFTV suggests about seeing stats.."to see the stats that show they are consistently wrong. I mean in an objective manner, and not a select few seasons" is very reasonable. You use one season, last year, as an example. A single sample, or two or even three, is hardly "consistently wrong". I'd have more faith in a forecaster with a 70-80% success rate base on probability forecasts than a self-professed claim of 80% by people like Ken Ring (New Zealand forecaster) or by James Madden and his inExacta rubbish.. Anyway, Steve is putting forward a strong argument for a cold winter forecast. The Met Office, on current factors, don't see it as the form horse..as they say. Let's wait for the season to actually happen before taking anyone to task about winter. It will be what it is and Steve, Uk Met Office, Joe B*stardi, Madden, Powell, Corbyn, et al, can't influence outcome. I hope as much effort goes into re-analysis when all is said and done that any lesson to be learned can be learned... J.

Don't shoot the messenger but one of the scientists, currently in Iceland and who has a twitter feed, remarked last night that they do not hold Jon in high regard from a scientific standpoint. That does not mean Jon is not right but neither does it mean his word should be taken before qualified scientists. Maybe they will become more worried themselves and issue a greater level of alarm but for now they are holding fire.... It's fascinating and potentially worrying nonetheless. Joe

Indeed, this could be interesting. This close-up graphic showing the activity well... http://en.vedur.is/earthquakes-and-volcanism/earthquakes/vatnajokull/ Joe

Roger Smith is Peter O'Donnell is MT Cranium is.......he probably has more aliases....why though? Joe

I've collated a number of forecasts from PWS, WSI, James Madden, etc. at www.iontas.net just to keep people "honest"...!! ;-) Joe

He did comment about the cold October forecast by James Madden in one of his PDF bulletins which can still be read here; http://www.weatheraction.com/docs/WANews11No21.pdf He didn't go into his winter forecast at that time but did forecast a number of storms over the following weeks.... Joe

Well unless someone else DID more accurately forecast that event with the specifics you noted then you could still say their "forecasts of where and when it would snow were second to none!??" Joe

Difficult to take PWS seriously, IMO. It's a case of pick your forecaster and someone's bound to be close to the mark. Earlier forecast from end-Aug followed by a "disclaimer" from Jonathan Powell in relation to Serena's forecast posted by GavinD. Autumn 2011 - Winter 2012 This generic PWS Frontiercast for Europe is geographically centred upon France / Germany / Switzerland. These data cannot therefore be used as a guide for conditions in more peripheral regions of our continent. September: Warmer than average / precipitation around the norm October: Somewhat milder than average / wetter than normal November: Average temperatures / wetter in southern regions December: Slightly colder than average / precipitation around the norm January 2012: Slightly colder than average / precipitation around the norm Ray Anthony Chief Assistant Weather Forecaster Saturday August 27th 2011 PWS Comment Extra Winter 2011/12 Forecast, Not Yet Folks!.... As regular visitors to PWS will know, the company concentrates its main work on long range forecasting, with predictions made several months ahead of the arrival of a new season. Back in June, it was decided that we would employ the services of a 'number cruncher', (our Serena), who would basically run the system ahead to incorporate another season beyond that which we were forecasting for. Serena has indeed identified patterns and trends in the data, but PWS advises that her findings are merely a general theme for that season and is not PWS's proper seasonal forecast. Whereas her work is noteworthy, at this range it really is too early to call what will happen, so it is advisable to wait for the winter forecast launch to see how PWS expects the new season to behave, and this can only be done by using a formula which envelopes more current data, data which Serena is not using in these extreme long range forecasts. Jonathan Powell Senior Weather Forecaster Saturday September 10th 2011 - (Originally Posted Saturday September 3rd 2011) Disclaimer. The opinions expressed by the above forecaster are not necessarily those of Positive Weather Solutions.

Karyo, a full blown Katla eruption is not something to wish for at ANY time. Have a read of Katla impacts from the past and you might just settle for a natural evolution of winter rather than the influence of Katla which has the potential to be a lot more devastating than "blocking sunlight"! Joe

This "coldest in 1000 years" is becoming a bit of an urban myth. There were links posted on a thread in the UKWW forum some time ago that explained how this story arose. Basically a climatologist was interviewed and asked, hypothetically, what would be the consequences of a slow-down or shut down in the Gulf Stream (or was it the nAD?). His response was along the lines that it would result in a 'millennium' winter. The media then had a field day and turned the story into te "coldest winter in 1000 years" on the way. It was attributed to Polish scientists. Further trawling of the Net shows that, once the story took wings, Russian scientits were dragged into the story and they issued a rebuttal of sorts insofar as saying that while a cold winter was expected they diagreed with the "Polish" view! This is really a case of the media generating a fascinating, headlin-grabbing story from what was an opinion and slowly it becomes scientific reseach and a forecast!! Will pos links when(if) I can find them again! *EDIT* Here is one link; Russian Winter View Joe

Rippley's believe it or not...! :lol: Dun Laoghaire Harbour Weather Station reported maximum temp of 22.1c around 14:25 today. # Date: 2007-10-27 # Time: 13:24 hrs GMT # Tide Height: 3.594 m # Wind Bearing: 229 ° # Wind Direction: SW # Wind Speed: 10.7 kts # Beaufort: 4 # Wind Gust: 20.3 kts # Air Temperature: 22.1 ° # Pressure: 1008.9 hPa # Rainfall: 0 mm Six hour trend data also available showing very mild, even warm, temperatures from quite early morning until now. Conditions very pleasant with spells of sunshine and light winds. Joe Dublin View details at the link: Dun Laoghaire Harbour Weather