Crepuscular Ray
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Posts posted by Crepuscular Ray
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Saw the first one of the year a couple of months ago, although he looked quite small and underdeveloped and haven't seen any since then, thank goodness. Hardly any butterflies, the herbs on my windowsill haven't got greenfly, hardly any wasps, no ladybirds (as opposed to the hundred of harlequin ladybirds last year) and no flying ants. Sadly, I think there's a nest of the unmentionable stripy things at the bottom of the garden.
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SC, have your contacts had time enough yet to even start working out whether this level of activity is statistically unusual, let alone come up with any theories?
CR
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Possibly the Med is a bit far off as a plausible model for a future UK climate. If you settled for central France, which is more realistic, then the past winter would have been fairly normal and this summer would be like a cool, wet summer in that region. My expectation is that climate zones will shift northwest with the adjusting magnetic field, for a while at least, although a different global regime could set in at some point and overwhelm that steady-state shifting regional model.
Our own climate here has shifted about the same in recent decades, the range of winter and summer temperatures is about what it used to be in northern Oregon. This has led to an environmental crisis for the forests of B.C., which are under assault from a rampant beetle infestation. This was always in the ecology of the province, but the beetles were often killed off by very cold winters. We haven't had such a winter here since 1969, a few near misses perhaps, leading to some mortality in the beetle population, but essentially for the past ten years they have multiplied without any checks at all.
Although climate zones can shift, variability will shift with them, so this is no guarantee of dry summers in the U.K. ... and the solar angle is not changing, so if that much rain comes down, it will not evaporate as quickly as it would from fields in central France.
That's fascinating. I've not heard anything about the shifting magnetic pole having an effect on the climate/local weather. Any links?
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You can't say our climate isn't warming, winters have been exceptionally warm lately, unfortunately summers haven't followed suit in the past 2 years.
If that's aimed at me, I wasn't.
I've seen some textbooks and media sources suggesting that we'll get "Mediterranean summers" as a result of global warming, but I'm yet to see any eminent climate scientists suggest anything of the sort.For us to get Mediterranean summers we'd need the mean track of the jet to move quite a lot further north, as well as having global temperatures at least a couple of degrees warmer. There is evidence of a northward movement of the jet in winter, but not so much in summer- we had a move towards warmer, drier sunnier summers starting around 1989, but it seems that the change of decade/century has brought a new change in direction, back to summers more like we had in the 80s but a bit warmer.
I'd distrust 'media sources'; they're more interested in selling advertising space than the truth, and many of those textbooks that I've read or worked on that claim that we're going to get hot dry summers don't seem to be able to substantiate their claims as far as I can see. There are always a lot of ifs in the text.
The track of the jet seems to me to be following what most of the models say - more or less where it would usually be in winter (if not a bit farther north) and farther south in summer. But then, next year, for all we know, the various other effects like ENSO and the jet stream that crosses the northern Pacific (can't remember the name) will flip and we'll get broiled, baked and fried, the trains will grind to a halt and we'll all whinge about it being too hot instead.
Ho hum.
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Swifts look like a double-ended scimitar and go sqeeeeeeeeeeeee. When they fly low, they're noticeable larger than swallows and martins.
Swallows are smaller, dart about, don't make much noise and have forked tails. They sit on telephone wires, which swifts don't.
It's been an awful year down here for both as there have been almost no insects for them to feed on at all.
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Definitely erupting, but it does'nt look like its higher than 15,000 feet.
Looks like the winds are pretty strong, which might have an effect on that - whatever, I'm glad I don't live there.
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It's not unprecedented, take the summers of 1985-88 for example- Junes 1986 and 1988 apart, all of the months of those four summers had a pretty strong Atlantic, often with the jet tracking some way south.
Yes, the jet's "normal" track is further north than this summer, but some members post as if the jet normally takes the track that it did during Summer 1976. For example the depression tracks of June 2008 were representative of the long-term normal. Quite often, the strength of the jet is more important than the track as a slow jet gives greater scope for blocking highs to break off from the main Azores High and settle around Britain.
I didn't say it was unprecedented (I've live though more than 40 English summers after all), it was more of a way of questioning whether any sensible forecaster promised us a "Mediterranean summer".
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Um, sorry, pardon my ignorance, but don't most of the models predict that even though average global temperatures are rising, there's nothing to say that the UK will get hot sunny summers just averagely warm and less sun? Basically, if anyone can come up with a concrete reason for the jet stream to have stayed this far south two summers running, it would be interesting to hear.
(goes and hides in bunker)
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I went to Canterbury for the day - not a good idea - even in the crypt of the cathedral, it was like a sauna. The train trip back to London took 4 hours rather than the 90 minutes advertised because of the speed restrictions. I seem to remember getting through about 4 litres of water just to stop feeling thirsty.
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The second one is definitely a gladdy - even it it appears to be growing at a funny angle.
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In this country, you're very lucky to hear a Turtle Dove as they're being pushed out by Collared Doves and Wood Pigeons and are now back on their way south. Well done for spotting it.
Grey Wagtails are cute - nearly as cute as the flock of 40-plus Long-tailed Tits than amble through my garden most days.
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Discussion of activity in the Aleutians
Earlier on we were pondering the question as to whether this level of activity in the Aleutians was in any way unusual and was there any significance in the fact that there seemed to be a lot going on over on the Russian side at Kamchatka as well.
Ive just had a response back from one of the scientists at AVO and they have been puzzling over this as well.
What they say is that yes indeed this level of activity is a bit more than what they would expect. They normally average about 1 to 2 eruptions per year for the whole of Alaska so to have 3 in close proximity all going off at once is somewhat surprising.
Basically, they say they are looking at all this going and shaking there heads in wonder and saying "wow!"
So its not just us!
Hi Bob - do they have anything to way about whether they think the slightly more than normal activity in Alaska might be related to the activity in Kamchatcha (sp?) and South America?
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Great pictures Jurgen. Crepuscular rays are among my favourites, as you might guess from my name!
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Cant believe youve not seen them down your location, i'm way north and i saw them 4 days ago and
always every year i look out for them, i love the little blighters. I had a nesting pair in my eves, but last
year they didnt return
if they dont come this year i reckon they've probably stayed further south coz theweather's crap here
:lol: I'm not normally down in Sussex, I was just down there for the weekend. I usually only see them here in my particular patch of n/w London later on when the ants are flying - there aren't any nesting sites that close so it's only when the ants from the Kensal Green mega-colony fly that I see them. In a bumper year it's yucky - entire streets are carpeted with ants, but at least it provides food for the Swifts.
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You're right; it doesn't seem like summer until I hear that 'squeeeeeeeeee' and see them batting about.
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I may be a bit slow (as ever) but has anyone else seen Swifts yet? I saw three in East Sussex yesterday afternoon, but haven't seen any reports of others elsewhere, which seems a bit late compared to the last few years.
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The first Common Tern I've seen this year was fluttering around the dock near Canary Wharf just now.
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I always see them first at the riding stables my kids go to in South Manchester.I saw 3 last saturday afternoon 12th April.Last year they arrived very early on 29th March.A sure sign of Summer.Something else I have noticed the last couple of years is that Skylarks are making a comeback.They make a lovely constant twittering sound and remind me of my youth.
Adore skylarks - one of my most memorable mornings ever was mid-morning at Stonehenge just over 5 years ago - because it was pretty cold the skylarks had delayed getting going until then, but when they did go for it they were swooping around among the punters and the stones singing their little heads off - magical! If you've never been sung at by skylarks at about 20 ft (as opposed to the normal 150 ft) you don't know what you've missed!
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nope not seen or heard any yet. but did see to parakeets (sp) fly into the woods today
They'll be expanding southwards from London rather than migrating north for spring. Get used to the idea of a new form or dawn chorus.
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You're lucky to have such lovely signs of spring. I wouldn't take the parakeets as a sign of warmer weather, though: the little demons have been waking me up long before dawn for weeks and weeks and weeks. They're here all winter now - e.g., they were around v. early in January and it was bizarre hearing their squawks during a funeral in Surrey in early February when they look like such summery creatures, and they were around most of the time anyway.
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You're not being thick: it's taken me several attempts to get it right when I've tried (or maybe I'm being thick too). Is there a limit on how much can be uploaded at one time? The one that has worked is over 3.7 mB.
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About an inch here in west London at the moment: there would have been more but the ground's warm so it's melting from underneath.
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The place was closed for tourist's so i asked them if i could do some outside shots , they said what for... I said i love churches / graveyards and old buildings and its for a project. Showed them my card and they said go ahead , what a nice person the nun was
If you want something really old and beautiful and a challenge to photograph in your area, try the Norman church at Patrixbourne - it's got gorgeous sculpture round the doorways.
if they dont come this year i reckon they've probably stayed further south coz the
Daddy Long Legs
in Spring Weather Discussion
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Why was a daddy-long-legs talking to your cousin on facebook?