Iceberg

I think spiders are really spreading the AGW myth, ever noticed how it's always the nutty professors with cobwebs in their hair that keep producing these detailed peer reviewed papers they have the nerve to say that just because they have 20-30 years experience they should be listened to ?. I think they are being mind controlled by these spiders to say these things. The big question we need to answer is why are the spiders doing this ?, Does the mayan calender mention something about spiders taking over Europe ?.

You did make it then Andrew, :lol: What are your thoughts re the now forecasted moderate El nino to develop from Christmas onwards. ? Matt

Andrew certainly produces one of the most(if not the most) detailed, comprehensive free winter forecast for the UK. Does anybody know if he's a member ?, if not I'll ask him to come over and discuss/ answer any questions etc....

Good summery, Very much in keeping with the NCEP US forecast. However off the US Eastern seaboard where the two jet meet we are going to get some rapid cyclogensis, it's difficult to see this moderating much, unless the Jet can be forced south. I've also included the latest ENSO forecast, which shows only a stronger EL NINO occuring. Does anybody know why the pattern will retrogress ?, is it just due to the continued cooling of the oceans in the NH. ?

Forget what I just said Parts of Finland on the baltic are showing a -4C anom over the last 30 days so it's certainly a mixture of temp and wind.

The baltic has indeed gone below average, quite amazing considering the large postive anom's that existed there even a month ago. Go's to show the effect of wind and strong LP systems on the water rather than cold though. Some intesting changes in the SST charts though. BTW I wouldn't suggest cross using SST charts i.e the NCEP reconstructions using Reynolds and the Unisys charts as an example, the differences in the base values etc are quite large. The big changes in SST's though in the last 2 months is why I am highly sceptical of any LRF's for this winter, unless your going to predict major SST trends as well (and get them right) it turns into a guess. Time to investigate the various SST charts in a bit more detail...... Sorry and baseline baltic temps

Full copy of the report as well as conclusions summery's etc. http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/independent_...view_report.cfm

I agree Peter but those things took a generation or longer to change, we don't have that time. We can continue thinking but we have to start acting now with the resources, processes and tools we have.

Well the Stern Report is out, probably should have it's own thread but our continue it in here as P3 as put up some links. Lots to go on, but I am just concentrating on the Governments response and plan to combat AGW. Taken from the BBC Site with my own comments added: Create a global market for carbon pricing -Completely agree Carbon pricing is an effective way of starting to reduce CO2e production. Extend the European Emissions Trading Scheme (EETS) globally, bringing in countries such as the US, India and China -Carbon trading is essentially a good idea as long as it's implemented correctly. So I welcome this too. Set new target for EETS to reduce carbon emissions by 30% by 2020 and 60% by 2050 -I don't think these are agressive enough personally by they must be achievable if we are to truelly limit AGW impact. Pass a bill to enshrine carbon reduction targets and create a new independent body to monitor progress. -Yes again agree and the costs of this should be paid by the Carbon trading scheme and CO2e taxation to reduce needless CO2e production. Create a new commission to spearhead British company investment in green technology, with the aim of creating 100,000 new jobs - Um... not a big fan of commissions subsides are a better use of the money (see the UK film industry subsidies to show how these work) Former US vice-president Al Gore will advise the government on the issue. -As long as he's an unpaid adviser I am happy. Work with the World Bank and other financial institutions to create a $20bn fund to help poor countries adjust to climate change challenges -The fund isn't big enough, nor is the world bank the best institution to distribute the money, (look at the problems is caused with forced water privatisation). Work with Brazil, Papua New Guinea and Costa Rica to promote sustainable forestry and prevent deforestation. A no brainer really but what about indonesia etc..... Basically I am all for the use of taxation to combat and correct market imperfections which are term negative externalities, AGW is probably the biggest one of these ever. Capitalism believes in correcting these negative externalities through the use of taxation, hence the real cost of the product, or production of the product is shown to the markets. Matt

An ACE of 81.1 would give it slightly less than the 100% average, although it would still fall into the near average NHC category. It would also be below the 9.4 Average for TS's, below the 5.6 average for Hurricanes and well below the 1,7 average of hurricane hits on the US also the quietest season for 8 to 10 years. MR P if it's not out of the ordinary when was the last time the US was not struck by a Hurricane ? I don't think it's been in the last 10 years. I think an assumption was made that basically there are no major changes to the main hurricane drivers compared to last year, hence the deliverance of an above average season (Although not a record breaking season like last year). The NOAA/CPC forecast in August was calling for a neutral ENSO. "One factor known to significantly impact Atlantic hurricane seasons is ENSO (Gray, 1984). El Niño favors fewer hurricanes and La Niña favors more hurricanes. Based on the most recent ENSO outlook issued by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, ENSO-neutral conditions are expected in the tropical Pacific through much of the Atlantic hurricane season. Therefore, ENSO is not expected to impact this hurricane season." Personally I don't think a weak and very late El NINO is really going to effect the cane season that much, the main driver as Darren menioned was the increase shear, ALL TS and hurricanes really suffered from it and interestingly even in normal low shear environments such as the GOM, TS development was almost none existant. Also playing a part was the dust factor see this months good article below on the latest theories, an increase in dust will also by it's nature lead to a lack of moisture basically meaning the Atlantic looks more like a Graveyard, The ITCZ was also very patchy at best due to the above reason. http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2006/s2719.htm Dust Matt

I can't think of one that will realistically work

But Peter we have to do something about AGW and it has to be something that works ergo, we have to use capitalism. Matt

Individual Storm Summary Winds in knots, pressure in millibars, category is based on Saffir-Simpson scale. # Name Date Wind Pres Cat 1 Tropical Storm ALBERTO 10-14 JUN 60 995 2 Tropical Storm BERYL 18-21 JUL 50 1001 3 Tropical Storm CHRIS 01-05 AUG 55 4 Tropical Storm DEBBY 21-27 AUG 45 1000 5 Hurricane ERNESTO 24 AUG-01 SEP 65 1 6 Hurricane FLORENCE 03-12 SEP 80 972 1 7 Hurricane GORDON 11-20 SEP 105 955 3 8 Hurricane HELENE 12-24 SEP 110 954 3 9 Hurricane ISAAC 27 SEP-02 OCT 75 985 1 If this continues then we will be looking at the quietest cane season since 96 or 98. It was forecasted to be well above average. Not a single hurricane has hit the US this season, Can't remember how often this happens. The big players got the forecasts wrong pure and simple, I think it's basically down to the season last year. Nothing major changed so the natural conclusion was to go for an above average season. However things had changed.....

Yer but we have to live in the real world P3. If we are serious about tackling AGW we have to play by the worlds rules or we don't have a chance.

Yep Capitalism rules the world and the only way that we will tackle AGW is if we make if more profitable for governments, businesses and inderviduals to do it, hence the success of carrot and stick approaches such as taxation and subsides. Unfortunately all the people I mentioned above have a very ST view on things and we will only take action if it postively effects the bottom line in a 4-5 year cycle.

Well it's a typical 2006 Invest, in that although it's still active nobody really expects it to do anything other than disappear. GFDL has effectively dropped it and UKMET never ran with it. NHC are still open to possible intensification to maybe a TD but I am not holding my breath..... Matt

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6093396.stm One of my bug bears for the last 10 years has been the attitude that there is no point is trying to combat AGW and it's effects becuase the costs of doing so are too high. Well I hope this provides a bit more proof that it is well worth it, even given the uncertainty of whether it's going to happen or not. BTW these economic papers from the likes of the world bank have been coming out since 1995, I am not really sure how much convincing it will achieve on it's own, but it's another brick on the wall.

It won't amount to much, but it's the first Invest for a while. GFDL makes it a possible TS as it leaves the Antilles FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN BARBADOS AND THE MAIN WINDWARD ISLANDS CHAIN. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE THIS EVENING... UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS AS IT MOVES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ADJACENT WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. Floater 1 is currently over the system and shows some circulation but not a great deal of organisation.