Iceberg

Just looking at the picture in the atlantic again, 4 active waves currently, with two (2 and 3), showing the most immediate promise, although not that much it has to be said. Wave 2 has some good circulation but very little organised activity. Wave 3 has the activity without the required circulation (quikscat indicated moderate 15-20Kt winds associated more with the tunderstorms that any Tropical storm activity). These can change very quickly though. Sorry I couldn't find a generic Wave thread.

Thanks for the reply KW, I didn't see the begining of it as it's been a really hectic weekend. It certaintly had a good LLCC, I've seen systems with a warm core near the azores classified as sub tropical though (it all depends on whether or not it got it energy from the core or rather from some sort of external temp gradient), personally I don't think convection was in the centre long enough for it to create and sustain energy from a vertical motion to be called a TS and it fits in with the NHC's view of classifying systems that might hit the US but not those that don't.

I not sure what most of this thread has to do with the environment now, but as to public V private ownership. By far the best place is private if at all possible (not that it's always possible !). The public sector inherantly gives bad value for money. They pay too well (at least for the work done on a productivity basis), the people that work in the public sector generally don't work hard enough, they have too generous pensions, etc, etc. All the above doesn't include the rubbish management that takes place due to essentially lack of accountability. The role of regulators is to make sure that sufficent investment takes place, without too much of a price increase onthe consumer. The regulator needs to be strong, if this is the case then by and large it works for such areas as water, gas, electricity.

Some extreme warmth looks to be coming up from Alaska next week. 850 temps look to be as high as 15C with widespead pluses available all the way to the North Pole.

He really shot out of nowhere. Goes to show what a could LLCC can achieve given a bit of help. Shear seems to have removed any central convection and he's def on a downward trend now, but it Fantastic to get a storm here so early in the season (on the first day !). I wonder whether this is the earlyest Carr/Gom named storm in the last 100 years ? Almost forgot latest NHC update. "AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION EARLIER TODAY...STRONG SHEAR HAS REMOVED MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS INDICATES THAT BARRY IS NOT CURRENTLY STRENGTHENING. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF AN EXPOSED CENTER SURROUNDED BY A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND EXTENDING FROM WESTERN CUBA NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SURFACE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED." Given the SST's and the above I wonder whether this was really a hybrid storm ?. The current precip certainly seems frontal in nature......

What interesting is that we've had a month with almost 200% rainfall, record cold days, but it still manages to come in above average.

I don't know whether it's been viewed before but here's the CET triangle. Sorry if it has.

A chilly night tonight certainly but with widespread 16's tomorrow and even a 19 or 20 (using latest GFS) with nighttime temps of between 6 and 10 I would expect the CET to start climbing again for the last two days.

It all depends on our Euro high IMO, there have been some pretty high temps in Germany this May, it would only take a slight shift to direct that heat towards us.Like wise if it doesn't we get a pretty bog standard June.

Does anybody remember where the CET sights are now. ? As to what effect today will have ?, that depends on the exact location of the sights. Obs show most of the country at between 11-14C atm. Going down to 1 - 4C tonight, so there will obviously be another drop, but the average could be anywhere between 5C to 9C depending on exact location. I would probably expect it to go down to 12.07 by tomorrow, but that is a rough guess, rounded up to 12.1.

You could be right Today will probably be a critical day, I am not at all convinced by the 00Z run temp figures though (It still has a max of 4C for me today up until midday when the temp is already at 7C !.) Tuesday night looks a bit bizarre as well with 850's of +5 and a dp of 1C it has 2m temps of -2 or -3. Hopefully the next run will be a bit more accurate.

Yet again we have the known unknowns of the natural cycles that are responsible for a goodly portion of the Warming observed. I once started a thread on this and asked anybody who knew anything about these natural cycles to show even a thread of evidence (unsurprisingly there were no takers). Research into natural cycles is huge in climate science and it's an area we need to know more about.

Getting back to May. Temps held up pretty well over night considering the conditions and the forecasts. 6's or 7's for most of England with a small pocket of 5's in central southern england (GFS was predicting 4's and 5's even down to 2.) Overnight temps keeping up to this degree with massively help the final CET figure. With temps during the day maxing out just in double figures for most of the CET zone an average of 8.5C won't drag the overall figure down as much as possibly thought.

I've not entered this for awhile, but have some strong feelings on the upcoming summer (i.e I think it will be another record breaker), At least a +1 C looks a dead cert so I am going for some where between 1 or 2 above that giving a rough 16.6C. and a total of between 2C and 3C above average.

Given the fact the GFS has undercooked temps today by 1 or 2 C (it's max a 9.00am for me was 8, in real life it was 10C.) Today and Monday will be a bit down (maybe dragging it down by .2) Wed pretty neutral maybe taking up by 0.05, thursday looks to be warm again with 20C being reached taking up by 0.1C, so in total only dropping very slightly down from yesterdays figure. With the above I think a record breaking spring will just be hit, thanks to the final may figure.

You can't include rural areas in a congestion charge, it's not your choice where you live, if you've been brought up in the rural area, all your family in a rural area etc. They would lose all charecter and turn into old peoples and rich peoples playgrounds. I live at least 5 miles from the nearest semi-decent shop, the bus service doesn't operate before 10.15am, therefore I need my car, unless you don't think I have a right to live where I've been brought up, grew up etc.

I don't think the law is much different re mileage. I am actually all for an increase in fuel duty, but the real problem (re congestion) is in urban areas so I am not sure why rural people need to pay. Work from Home......emmm......definately. I've got an ISDN line put in from work and I do frequently. Not sure it makes me more productive, but it's much better for me.

Yep. If they are driving for work i.e a midwife visting house to houst the toll will be paid for them like they get there petrol paid. If they are travelling to a hospital etc to work, then they can get public transport like the rest of us. As for a docter he might have to reduce his holidays abroad by 1 each year, poor thing.

Completly agree 2003 isn't similar at all

By and large congestion isn't a problem in rural areas. If you use a dual carriageway or motorway you should pay more simple. Also lorries don't pay nearly enough IMO. Maybe if these measures are taken the local area's will come back into play and people won't keep travelling to these horrible mass shopping centres, to buy things they don't need.

As long as they leave rural areas well alone and tax the people stupid enough to drive in inner cities I am quite happy.!

I find Unisys to be the least accurate. Both the NHC and NOAA charts show that most of the atlantic is above, with the colder upwelling and eddying around the GS the only real cold feature. Both similar to a 2003/2004 outlook. Cheers Matt

Have to admit that bio fuels are a pet hate of mine as well, it's part of the fluffy bunny world of environmentalism that exists purly to make people feel better, such as recycling christmas cards etc. I once had the green party compaigning in Poole with a bus powered by bio fuels (bloody idiots didn't have a clue !). Completely agree with the straw clutching as well.

We are certainly alot better at including ice thicknesses thanks to sat. I take the opposite view in that the much discusses cold pooling in the upper atmosphere (the curse of last winter), let to an intense and high latitude PJ keeping the cold enclosed. I would probably expect to see more ice than currently seen. A few years like this might bring it back to normal and reverse the trend but we know that's highly unlikely to happen. Models are still indicating an early start to the artic summer. Does anybody have an answer to the highest temp recorded at the north pole. ?, or climate averages.

I have to admit with the varying effects on ENSO in the modern climate, I am not sure that correlations with past years really work. The ITCZ looks to be pretty active so far this year and with SST's in the average category the only real limitor to TS formation will be shear. Shear, particularly around the GOM is hugely impacted by any kind of postive ENSO. Only a few weeks to go until the start of the season now though....Come on you ITCZ move north....! Matt