Iceberg

It does indeed look very good and has been upgraded to Invest 93l. Models don't really take a liking and even GFDL kills it instantly, IMO this is more to do with it's location which the models don't really handle well, GFS keeps the system intact, but both GFS and METO have it ploughing straight west without any recurve north. The ITCZ might just be a little bit to far south for this to really take effect.

I'd like to say that this is all due to Bush and Putin, but that would be giving Blair et al too much credit. There is very little or no appetite for any "new" or working policies to bring about a real reduction or even really a slowing down of CO2 emissions. They are prepared to sit in their towers, probably damming the developing and third world (look at the real inaction over Africa to see how much they care !). Maybe a CAT 5 wiping out Miami ( A Richer/whiter city) will cause Bush to Act, as to Putin he's only got to gain from this.

A bit jump yesterday up to 16C (+2.6C)

15.6 C now so a full 2.3C above normal for the first 8 days, it's going to be difficult to recover from such a high start to anything near average. It should go up to 15.8 by the end of the weekend too.

What happened last year does seem to be a huge problem, thanks for that Reef because I'd completely forgotten. A more detail map of the area shows some very intense melting ( to be honest I trust the more detailed maps than the cryo ones which a basic sat guide. http://iup.physik.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr/...MSRE_visual.png ( A bit 1.3mb so I can't post it !) But a snipet of the area in question. very, very worrying.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/CT/animate.arctic.0.html Hope it works for you.

realclimate is unfortunately blocked from work :lol: Rahmstorf's recent paper though confirms the findings (this is still a conservative assessment !), based on a linear rate of increase, without a temperature related proportional increase in icemelt, ross, WIAS collaspe etc. http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~stefan/Publicat...cience_2007.pdf

The warm plume coming up from north alaska(+10 850's) is really starting to be felt. The 30 day animation shows this better. But the thining ice and melt water is very noticable.

Indeed, my first post on this thread ended with. "The article/study doesn't really surprise me but has any body any links to the science behind it, Just as I would with an anti article I would need to see the science and data to come to a realistic conclusion. " Thanks for the actual science I hate jumping to conclusion from press snipets alone.

People are really getting desperate if this thread is anything to go by. Same old same old.

Well according to the meto it's been the warmest spring on record. http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/story/0,,2096431,00.html Just to put the cat amongst the pigeons.

Now currently a CAT1 and estimated to hit muscat at full strength around 2-3pm today.

REMARKS: 060300Z POSITION NEAR 22.8N 59.7E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 30 FEET.

Looks set to hit Muscat today(probably as a CAT 1 (maybe a 2), this is the largest city in Oman with 600,000 people. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Muscat,_Oman As you can see from the wiki map it's very very flat with power stations, desalination plants, oil terminals etc all on the sea front. The path is still the same and virtually travels up the Gulf shipping lane. Even a TS with gusts of 50-60 mph will be a problem I think.

Direction has changed again (This must be getting really anoying for anyone in it's path !). Now a direct hit on musqat again. and travelling straight up the gulf (worse case scenario again ) Strength seems to be going down still, but the dry air is making some attempt at being mixed out, if this happens the strength should stablise. She did indeed reach CAT 5 status officially.

Position is further west than last time. 051200Z --- NEAR 21.9N 61.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT Keeping Musqat in the storm force winds again.

More degredation so it's probably a CAT 3 now. Dry air could well cause a massive collapse of the system in the next 24 hrs.

Alot of people where claiming how conservative they where, not how right they where. Right direction, wrong speed. As to this study I've not seen an ounce of scientific data from it, so reluctantly must dismiss it as only a possible or potential hype at the moment. Matt

quick update: The track has been moved further eastward, with a more pronounced turn to the north, due to increase weakness in the ridge. Intensity down to 125Kt. And further weakening expected. Completely agree KW, dry air will be a major problem from now onwards,due to this it won't expand any further. It's also increasing in speed and could potentially still hit the Pakistan boarder. Looks like the oil interesting are much safer than last night.

Good Dvorak numbers still, but downgraded to a conservative 135Kt. Gradually weakening is expected now down to 95Kt when landfall takes places (still a CAT 3 though !) 050000Z --- NEAR 20.9N 62.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT Quite a large radius of strong winds. However musqat is nolonger the target(although it's very close !), a turn north occurs plunging Gonu into Iran, thanks to a ridge weakeness (I'll take this plunge north with a pinch of salt atm, even if all the models are forecasting it). IMO they are forecasting the environment but not the monster. Matt

Dubai looks ok, but Oman's main Oil facility at Musqat looks like it will take a direct hit, expect production from Oman to take the best part of 12 months to reach current levels and probably 3 months to reach 20% levels, I would also get use to seeing petrol at 105-110 per litre in this country. A worse case scenario see's it hitting Iran and UAE as well, looking at model guidance none of them really have a clue atm.

I don't follow these normally, but this is a kind of 1/50 yr event for them. Looks to be 140Kt, with Landfall being a real problem as it could skirt up the coast past Muscat, kitting alot of coastal communities. From here anywhere from Iran to possibly even Doha could suffer. Considering the oil implication the price will probably go up again, and also this is one of the busyest shipping lanes in the world. A double landfall looks possible as well.

Yep type 2 should be 3. I completely agree not much promise in either. We have an active ITCZ it just needs to be further north.

"So can we have some balance please? Yes, the world's climate is changing. Yes, we are producing more CO2 and the atmospheric concentration is increasing. No, plotting two graphs next to each other and declaring "correlation" is not proof" I'd suggest reading some of the pro AGW links if this is the evidence you have seen, it might well open up a new world for you. "No, there is still little evidence that on balance the planet will be worse off as predictions of mass famines and great storms are based on climate models that not only can't tell what the weather will be next week, but when you put last week's data into them they can't tell you what the weather was LAST week!" Climate models are climate models not weather models, doh...... I think all sceptics need to be able to understand the difference between climate and weather. It's like saying a 2CV is a car, a Maclaren F1 is a car hence they should drive, react and go the same speed. The article/study doesn't really surprise me but has any body any links to the science behind it, Just as I would with an anti article I would need to see the science and data to come to a realistic conclusion.

The hole in picture A occurs every year, however this year it's about 4 to 5 weeks early. Picture B shows an area that is likely to melt alot in the next 2 weeks (i.e above the normal amount!).