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markg

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    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    The most pleasing difference about model watching this year against the 6 years ive been watching them on here is that the cold theme has been there since early december and hasnt really changed in that whole period , yes the models have flighted some less cold interludes(mainly at weekends with less data) whereas previous years when we were all going into meltdown when the models showed day after tomorrow at t384 , just been a great blocked theme!! :blink: and models today still going for cold to mid march by that point we could do with some warmer weather. :good:

    Scottish Cold Spell Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    hi all been a strange old day in Ayr today snow all day till about 4 pm lay a bit early on in day but mush after that ,webcams on traffic scotland look good up north even glasgow m77 at newton mearns still looks like its snowing heavy , teletext says M77 FENWICK IS ONLY JUST PASSABLE , current temp here is 2.6*c highest all day chucking with rain , may be bad news tomrrrow moring if cold air and this lot starts to move south again as forecast. :)

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by markg

    Looking at today's models, I fear another '1982' is about to happen: one of the deepest/coldest blocks in years was blown-away in a matter of days, leaving the rest of the winter pretty nondescript...Having said that, I cannot possibly know what'll transpire over the coming three months??? :)

    Blocks come, go and come again. And, at the end of the day, they usually take us all by surprise! :)

    Well said Pete , we have too much data and info these days, much of which is all FI after 144hrs and generally only trends are spotted after this in low resolution , if we only had up to 144 hrs if would be a lot more fun , and as you say a small change in the short term makes a hugh change in the eventual evolution ,bring on the next one its still only the middle of january :) 28 days with snow on the ground here is just the best winter ever in my memory :)

    Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 19:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    i know what u mean, :lol: recently unless its showin the day after tomorrow easterly everyone is on a downer, weve all been spoilt by this codl spell, we have had moderate snow for over 2 hours and a white covering everywhere again temp currently 0.4*c, thats 26 days in AYR with snow on the ground amazing by any standard , if it keeps snowing lke it is forecast we are in for the best covering since 18th december , get in :good:

    Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 18:

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by markg

    HI ALL TONIGHT , BEEN A STRANGE OLD DAY LEFT AYR AT -5*C AT 8AM GOT TO GLASGOW AND IT WAS 0*C WENT SKIING AT XCAPE AND SHOP BRAEHEAD LEFT AT 2.30PM AND IT WAS 6*C :clap:

    GOT BACK TO AYR AND TEMP WAS 1.5*C , AT 5PM MY WEATHER STATION SAID -3.8*C AND KNOW IT SAYING +1.7*C AND CLOUD COVER , ON THE RADAR I HOPE THIS ISNT SMIZZLE HEADING OUR WAY AS WE TEND TO GET ON THE COAST :clap:

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    hate to bring bad news but i went to glasgow early this morning and the temp was -5 when i left here but zero in glasgow, when i left glasgow at 2.30pm the temp was+6*c and all the snow was melting fast ,that alone leads me to believe that any front coming in from the south west is only going to give snow on high ground as the forecast for tomorrow on the bbc stats also, after that if the GFS is to be believed it is definetly looking less cold 3-4*c is still cold, weve just been spoilt the last 3 weeks :lol:

    and after 144hrs is anybodys guess!! <_<

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by markg

    i think having watched all the charts over the last 3-4 days that no model seems to have a difinitive take on next week and whether or not we are going to stay cold or turn less cold after tuesday when push comes to shove the first low direction will have abig impact on any future develpoments ,times like this it may be better to stop watching every single model and run and just enjoy what we get!! weve had 22 days with snow on the ground here at sea level :whistling:

    Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 16

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by markg

    -7c here, slightly colder than the same time last night (i think) but we shouldn't get warmed up by the snow flurries this time. Expecting -14c here tonight, the river is frozen solid here :D

    Takes me back to early eighties on Kay Park Pond frozen over in 15 inch ice and the school off for a week cause the old boiler wouldnt work :unsure: -5.4 in Ayr just know

    Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 15

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    well its -5.1*c in Ayr at present never got up above -2 today got 2 inches of snow overnight and went sledging to the golf course at lunchtime hope the snow moving south currently doesnt run out of steam before it gets to us , its certainly heading south west at present , weve had snow/ice!!! lying since the 19th december :cold:

    expecting -10 even here at the coast tonight :lol:

    General Model Output Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hi Mr Data , Is there any data on model verification for last Christmas , I was wondering which model was the best to follow with less flight data. I seem to remember the GFS went a bit crazy last Christmas only to be resolved around the 27th.

    yeah chris i remember this also, the data coming in was less as not all stations reported data , its only one run and the 12 previous were all good for cold coming back, mind due it hasnt ever left us up here and we are on the coast, we had snow again last night on top of the snow we had on the ground since last friday :cold:

    Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 7

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by markg

    well last night we had snow,hail ,rain and when i went to bed it was raining heavy and thaw set in, however this morning was a pleasant suprise it must have snowed heavy again and frozen as it has added to the snow we have on the ground temp currently 0.1*c ,radar shows more showers coming over the irish sea ,the forecast showed max 1 for today and 2 for tomorrow with rain showers :cold: but then all change on tuesday as it turns colder right up to new year with more snow especially the north and east of scotland :cold:

    this must be some record for most consecutive days with snow on the ground in ayr being next to the sea its very unusual :cold:

    happy christmas all

    Scottish Cold Spell Discussion 5

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Heavy snow now here in Ayr and the 4th consecutive morning we've woken up to a covering. The amounts may not match up to December 2000 but this has been a good spell for the length of time we've had snow on the ground :)

    hi duncan how you doing ?

    its all gone pete tong here at the coast after one heavy snow shower its been manily sleet although the temp is going down again to 1*c on weather station , more showers coming our way so hopefully the temp will be low enough by then for snow :)

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