Jack Wales

000 WTNT31 KNHC 182041 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM FAY ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062008 500 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2008 A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FLAMINGO TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. AT 5 PM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST IS EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM FLAGLER BEACH SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO TARPON SPRINGS. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. AT 5 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH IS DISCONTINUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO KEY WEST...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS...AND FOR THE FLORIDA MAINLAND EAST OF FLAMINGO TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FAY. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FAY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.9 WEST OR NEAR KEY WEST FLORIDA AND ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA. FAY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF FAY AWAY FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA ON TUESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND FAY IS FORECAST TO BE AT OR NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SOMBRERO KEY FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED 2-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS OF 60 MPH...96 KM/HR...AND AN ELEVATION OF 159 FEET. THE NOAA AUTOMATED STATION AT SAND KEY FLORIDA RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 71 MPH...115 KM/HR...AT AN ELEVATION OF 149 FT. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN KEY WEST IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES. STORM TIDES OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR THE CENTER OF FAY. TIDES OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. FAY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF CUBA...WITH STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES BEING POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH-FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS..AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA. REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...24.6 N...81.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM EDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

I suppose it depends on how you define 'rarely'! I don't want to alarm you but the Domincan Republic has been hit by numerous hurricanes so it is wrong to say it is 'rarely hit'. For example, TS Fay rashed through there a couple of days ago. Although you are visiting during the peak of the hurricane season the odds are still very much against you being caught up in one but if I were you I'd keep an eye on 94L to be on the safe side! Conditions seem ideal for development but the path cannot be accuraltey plotted that far ahead.

Fay now appears to be strengthening somewhat however she is interacting more with land and still being inhibited by shear. I think she'll make landfall as a powerful TS (65mph).

I remember hurricane Jean (I think) doing something similar a few years back, she made landfall in the Dominican, looped north into the Atlantic but then did a complete 360 and made landfall in eastern florida.

Although some dry air is feeding into the NW quadrant, probably due to interaction with Hispaniola, Fay seems to be shaping up quite well. It's the island between PR and Cuba which contains the Dominican R and Haiti. The path over the next 24 hours is crucial, if Fay makes landfall on Cuba's east coast, she could run up the length of the island which would weaken or even dissipate her. Alternatively if she runs parallel to the south coast, the sst's are 30 - 31C and Fay could strengthen rapidly. If so, by the time she crosses western Cuba the path should be SE to NW meaning interaction with land would be minimal with further time for strengthening in the GOM. It's quite bizarre but 48 hours from now we could be looking at no system at all or a category 3+.

Cheers KW, it looks like this one could be a prime candidate then if it develops as quickly as some models suggest.

I'm surprised this has still not been upgraded, the satellite images have got tropical storm written all over them, then again if there is no LLC or if it's misaligned I can see why nhc are holding out. Sorry to sound dumb but what are mesovortices?

I think one key issue is whether the system makes a direct on Hispanola, this should not pose much of a threat against life/property as it won’t have had sufficient time to develop. However the system would be considerably weakened, reducing the chances of further development later on. If as I suspect the system skims the north coast of Hispanola, conditions should become conducive to rapid development with 30C+ sst’s. In this instance the Bahamas would be first to see hurricane warnings Also 93L has now been downgraded to ‘not active’ by noaa.

Strong convection and circulation with 92L at the moment. A sense of déjà vu here as I said this the day before yesterday but shear has reduced and it certainly seems to have got its act together now. Expect an upgrade to TD later today. 93L has a disorganised and sheared and imo looks less likely to develop into anything any time soon

Certainly looks a bit more ragged than it did earlier, less defined circulation aswell but as KW says, Dolly spent a week or so doing this before reaching TS status...

92L now appears to be more organised, so with stronger convection and relatively low levels of shear we could see TD Fay today. Sat Image NOAA have upgraded their forecast as follows... 1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY. 93L continues to show strong convection but the system still appears somewhat disorganised probably due to shear levels. There is still potential to develop into TD over the next few days and IMO if shear levels drop the amount of convection within it should aid rapid development into a powerful system.

From NOAA... ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2008 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS LIMITED AT THIS TIME...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. 2. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS CENTERED ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. NOAA Website

TS Eduardo makes landfall just under hurricane strength - 65mph NOAA NHC

It's looking more unlikely that Eduardo will reach hurricane strength due to its development being inhibited by shear overnight. Although strong convective bursts are continuing around the core and shear is expected to diminish again, the system is now interacting more with land and dry air so I predict Eduardo will make landfall as a strong TS.

I contacted the beeb earlier also regarding the term mini tornado, I believe they have altered the article now as well as the teletext report.

From looking at the damage, I’d say that was a powerful tornado, possibly measuring up to 2 or even 3 on the fujita scale. The term mini-tornado is ridiculous, it’s like calling a category 3 hurricane a mini-hurricane…. Absurd!

Although at this stage it seems unlikely we will match last years ice loss, it is interesting to note that the current temperature in Alert (Canada) is 16C! Alert temp

I think the overall summer pattern is pretty much locked down now, generally unsettled although occasional hot days in SE England may bump the CET up to 16.4C

Category 3 starts from 110mph, I think it will just run out of time to reach that level but judging by the intensification over the last 12 hours you could be right!

Forecasts now indicate maximum sustained winds of 100 mph. NOAA With further strengthening in the next few hours, Dolly could make landfall as a strong Cat 2 hurricane.

It appears we could be heading into El Nino territory very soon, look at the SST banding and strong +'ve anomalies in regions 1, 2 and 3... Unisys SST This is not just a surface feature as it is backed up by +'ve sub surface anomalies... CPC Sub Surface Also looking at the time series you would expect the trend towards +'ve to continue, especially for regions 3 & 4... CPC Time Series The question is what will be the synoptic effects of migration to El Nino conditions? Well, as said in a previous post the last time the enso went from strongly negative to positive was during summer 1976! I think it's safe to say that we are not going to see a repeat of that summer but we should continue to lose heights to our north thus enabling the jet to take a more n'ly track. I believe this will allow greater scope for the Azores high to ridge towards the UK in August and September.

Based on a w'ly QBO and on recent years I'm going for mild around CET +5C for DJF.

When making a longer range prediction, you have to factor in some leeway. I see no problem with the Met forecasts, to me near or above average indicates a likelihood for higher rainfall. So with regards to being the owner of a swimming pool, I would not dash out to take on extra staff for the summer! To put it in very simplistic terms for some I envisage the Met output charts output charts read (see example) Where the output straddles across different descriptions they are obliged to include the leeway in the forecast as they see it. I really do not see what the problem is here. If their winter forecast states “average or slightly colder than average” I would have no problem interpreting this either. The only way I would have a problem is if it states something like “On average it could be very cold or very mild”, as this would be of no use! There is contingency built in to virtually all forecasts whether it be the AO, NAO, hurricane paths, business plans, financial projections etc etc, for weather it’s just the same. Teits, be honest what you actually said was record breaking heat over 100f. I hope your right but unless you know something the modles don't, i don't think we'll be seeing that in July at least.

Well, they would be asking for a refund as according to your predictions we were supposed to be in a 100f heatwave right now!!

I'm no expert on the cryosphere but to me there is more cause for optimism after last years record melt in the NH. At the moment we are almost 1m sq km up on last year in terms of ice cover. Also the "first year ice" has not rapidly melted as some predicted in June. I reaslise that there are still 1 - 2 months of thaw left but IMO I don't think we'll reach the low minima of 2007.