Jack Wales

I think that's a bit harsh. This is an evolving science and as the forecast is for six months ahead, it is always going to be indicative in nature. Although I understand this method of predicting the NAO has an accuracy rate of about 66%, the Met have to take into account other factors which may affect the forecast nearer the time e.g. the ENSO state. It's also worth remembering that a negative NOA doesn't always correlate with cold weather synoptics, therefore I think it is unfair to expect the Met (or anyone else) to accurately scope the following winter. I would far prefer to read an impartial Met forecast than headline grabbing lrf's i.e. "coldest winter for 100 years", which have been produced by certain other web sites!

Now officially TD2... NOAA Intensification up to 55kt forecast by noaa with the ships/gdfl models forecating TD2 to reach hurricane status within 5 days.

I think a coolish one is on the cards, 15.4 is my punt.

Delightful pics, can you tell me the mountain range where they were taken?

I'm sure I've read postings on here claiming that a cold wet September followed by a warm dry October correlates with colder following winters. I can't see why this would be the case and what (if any) science or research there is to substantiate the theory, maybe someone else can explain...

Some subtle changes on the SST charts to note... SST's Growing warmer anomaly around the Azores could increase the strength of the HP cell and with the diminishing La Nina set up the SST's could be more of a driver for this summer. Looking at the sub surface anomolies, it seems we could be heading into El Nino terriroty. ENSO - Sub Surface The warm anomolies over regions 1 & 2 have already propogated to the surface with the cold anomaly (undercut by warm) now diminishing in regions 3 & 4. With the slackening of the equatorial trade winds I expect to see an increase in warm anomalies over the next few months. I wouldn't be surprised to see an MEI above +.75C by the end of June.

In my car! There is not a great demand for aircon in Tonyrefail but it would have been useful in the house during the summers of 2003 and 2006.

It's just as well re-gassed my aircon last week so I hope your right! Will you be releasing a summer forecast this year?

Wow Roger, I thought my punt of 34.5 was pushing it a bit!! What are you thoughts behind that prediction?

Yes, even in winter the values are much lower, during this time you would expect the opposite to be true.

You may have noticed the disparities regarding BBC temperature forecasts for the UK. If you look at the following link you will note that there is a wide disparity between the maximum temperature value in Fishguard (West Wales) to surrounding areas... BBC UK Forecast I understand that Fishguard is more exposed and that you'd expect it to realise lower values than more sheltered towns/cities. Having taken that into account the forecast maximum values still appear to be excessively low, for example 12C today and 11C on Saturday are the same or lower than those predicted for Lerwick. Generally speaking I would expect to see similar values forecast to Penzance due to similar latitude, longitude, exposure and SST's yet Penzance is often forecast values 5-6C higher. Has anyone else noticed similar disparities or if you can offer any explanations please feel free to enlighten me.

I think things will improve from the second week but for how long who knows? I'll go for an above average 15.6.

William, I wouldn't reach for the noose quite yet! The models and the ensembles are all over the place at the moment so IMO all we can do is look at trends. As I see it one of the key issues is loosing the heights to our north as this will enable the jet to take a more n'ly track and allow scope for an Azores high or even a Euro high to assert itself. If you look at the AO ensembles, there is a trend towards more neutral values so I'm sticking by my guns and cautiously predicting an improvement from the second week of June. AO Ensembles

Good post John, I enjoy reading these, especially as they have been very accurate. The area of your post I've highlighted is what I believe to be key going into June. If the ridge is split into two, this could give rise to LP hitting us from the WNW. I think BFTP mentioned this in another thread as being a synoptic that would take time to unlock itself. Although I believe the signs are there for a strong Azores high to form, in this instance it could take on a NW to SE formation. It's still early days though and by the weekend we should have a better idea as to how this will play out.

Hi John, Yes, I agree with you that GFS has been all over the place recently as it tends to be around blocking. My hunch is based on two issues, (1) The Pacific synoptics not having seemed to change much last week and without much change there, would I be correct in assuming the MJO cycle has slowed? (2) I believe that with the NAO progged to remain negative, I don’t see how this supports the outcome of a trough at 20W. As I see it the downwind trough could well settle on top of the UK and keep us in a changeable pattern from later this week into early June. You’re right though in that time will tell but as you’re knowledge is undoubtedly far superior to mine I expect your prediction to win out. I’ll get the sun tan lotion ready!

34.5C, early August, Gravesend.

I see what you mean as by the end of May summer really starts to show its hand. What the models are throwing up at the moment won't please many people due to the strongly negative AO which looks set to remain for at least a week or so, resulting in the s'ly tracking jet and changeable conditions for the UK. The question for me is whether this is indicative of the summer months a la 2007 or is it a transitional stage of the weather migrating from spring-time to summer-time synoptics (Euro monsoon if you like). For me the next three weeks are vital as I would personally like to see trending for a strong Azores high with a more +'ve AO. If you look at the AO ensembles from NOAA, you will note there appears to be trending to more neutral values towards the end of this month. AO Ensembles This is also reflected in the models with an Azores high and the jet taking on a more n'ly track, albeit in FI. Even this could leave us in a cool zonal W'ly flow but there would be a much greater chance of the high ridging towards us, even if it takes a few attempts as can be the case in early summer. I cautiously predict a cool zonal but not necessarily wet start to June with an improvement towards week 2 and 3.

If the cold anomalies are kept to the West Atlantic it should assist height rises in W Europe. As for your winter forecast, there are tentative indicators that lower ice cover in summer contributes to milder winters in W Europe. If you combine that with the W'ly QBO, it's already looking like a record mild one for me. Anyway I'm not going to say anymore about winter or I risk getting my head bitten off too! :o As for summer, my predictions are a bit more optimistic than yours, with a drier but not necessarily hot first half.

the WO forecast appears to be based enteirely on model runs for the first three weeks and the La Nina signal for the rest. IMO the mature weakening La Nina signal will spell dryer (though maybe not hot) Weather, espeically for June.

The Atlantic SST's currently point to a -ve NAO and possibly a -ve AO which would not be ideal, however La Nina is now in an advanced stage and looks like dissipating into neutral values soon, if not already. GP has already pointed out that this along with the MJO etc indicates a W European ridge for early summer but it will be interesting to see how this plays out against the Atlantic sst's.

Yes, the SST signal at the moment could favour a greenland high, lets hope not!

That's probably due to the southerly tracking jet of recent times. I expect values to catch up somewhat around our shores towards the end of the month. What's also interesting is the sub surface anomaly in ENSO regions 1 & 2, this has gone from being negative (-3 in places) to highly positive (+5C in places) over the last few weeks. Could this be a first sign of a developing El Nino? Although this may enhance our chances of late summer/autumn warmth, it doesn't bode well for winter 2008/09 for cold lovers.

Essan, thanks for posting those fantastic pics, absolutely stunning. I'd enter the steaming river shot into as many comps as possible, I would think it would be a great one for the Countryfile calendar (for January B) ), well done.

Andy, Kold will be able to give you a far more technical reply but for what it's worth, La Nina is a negative Enso event (cold SST's) over the equatorial Pacific. The equatorial Pacific is split into a number of regions, of which region 3.4 is deemed to have the greatest correlation with our weather. This is due to the large HP cell generated in the central/northern pacific causing the PFJ to surge north towards Alaska then plunge southward through the N American continent resulting in cold conditions across Canada and north east USA. The cold air meets the tropical maritime air in the Atlantic causing a strong thermal gradient stimulating the PFJ and locking down the Polar Vortex over Greenland thus overriding any other teleconnections. This winter has been a classic example of this as we have seen numerous vigorous areas of Low Pressure pass close to or through the UK. In layman's terms, a moderate or strong La Nina (or El Nino) correlate with milder zonal winters over W Europe. The chances for colder winters in our parts are heightened when the ENSO is weakly +/- or neutral. The CPC site contains some useful info... ENSO El Nino / La Nina Hope this helps.

Hi Kold, can you (or anyone) provide me with a link to the weekly mei values please? I agree that El Nino is dissipating and at this rate we should be ENSO neutral by May so I hope this will prevent a washout summer a la 2007. It will be interesting to see what happens after the summer but with a W'ly QBO I'm not holding out too much hope! Cheers, JW