The Calm before the Storm

Had 4 snow showers today, pretty heavy resulting in temporary lying snow. Just had another shower 20 mins ago with a little lying. Still snowing lightly. Temp 1c. TCBTS

Having watched the programme in question; whilst some of the arguments against AGW were interesting, the lack of explanation for the recent warming (1975-2007) was a huge ommission. I think it's easy to confuse the past with the present on this one. I think that there is good evidence to support solar radiation influencing global temperatures up to 1975, the graphs that were displayed last night were quite impressive. IMO solar radiation drove climate change at this time. However since this period the correlation falls away quite badly, so is there something else now driving climate change? Put it this way, pre-industrialisation the world displayed a pretty stable carbon balance for hundreds of years. Suddenly man begins pumping billions of tons of CO2 into the atmosphere. Now I know that as a percentage of the total amount of CO2 emitted into the atmosphere this may be small but it's this extra CO2 which is causing atmospheric levels to rise. We know CO2 to be a greenhouse gas so isn't it reasonable to expect the planet to warm? Just because it may not have been the precursor to warming in the past does not mean it cannot influence now or in the future, thanks to man's intervention. What also concerns me is the fact that as oceans warm, they release yet more CO2. This positive feedback mechanism feeds CO2 levels even higher and so on. If the programme had been able to satisfactorily explain the recent warming (other than AGW) then I might have been swayed but as it stands I'll keep my feet just inside the AGW camp. TCBTS

A pretty zonal 1st half to the month with an above average CET followed by a slightly cooler 2nd half with anticyclonic conditions giving warm days but cool nights. Overall I predict the CET to be 6.6c TCBTS

Still snowing in Lichfield and has now settled everywhere. We have had some very heavy snow in the last hour which has added a further 2cm. Snow now much finer again. Temp still just above freezing. TCBTS

Started to sleet here in Lichfield at 12.00pm and continued till 1.30pm. Now snowing hard but too wet to settle at the moment. A slow thaw of lying snow has occurred. Snow depth now down to 1-2cm. Very large flakes and looks wonderful but can't see it lasting, although temp has fallen in last half hour, now 1.5c (was 2.0c). TCBTS

Disappointingly we had a slow thaw of snow last night here in Lichfield. The 3in of snow is now down to 1in and slushy. Forecast temps were -3c last night but min here was 1c :blink: . Currently 1c, cloudy, misty but no precipitation of any kind yet. TCBTS

Still snowing lightly here in Lichfield. Current snow depth 2.5-3in (6-8cm) but around 10-12cm in drifts. A slow thaw has started on roofs, cars, roads and pavements but not on grass. This is the best snow event since I was stuck on the M11 a few years back. Here are a few pics that I took earlier. TCBTS

Started snowing here in Lichfield at about 6.30am. Small flakes but now intensity has increased. Been snowing continuously and I estimate the depth currently at 2in. If this continues all morning (according to the forecast) then we could get 4in+ hopefully! Pretty winter wonderland. Pics to follow later. TCBTS

Well after the disappointment of last week where not even a single flake of snow fell on us here, I have the feeling that this winter is doomed. I just don't see the jet playing ball and as such any blocking will be irrelevant. I therefore predict a Feb CET of 6.2c. Another very mild month, enough for a record breaking winter?? I really hope I'm wrong and that we get a bone-chillingly cold feb but I just can't see it unfortunately. TCBTS