Geordiesnow
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Posts posted by Geordiesnow
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Does seem a bit cloudier to the far NNE. We'll wait and see and i guess we'll keep you posted. At the moment a few clouds floating around.
Cloud to the east to me now. Looking good for Cleadon. Its seems to me i'm a bit too far inland but i'm not too sure yet.
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Hmmm my worry inside me looks like becoming reality, its just weakening all the time now them showers. I would love to know why Newcastle seems a place where PPN weakens. Its very frustrating and confusing.
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In newcastle and durham and thereabouts, you could get some snow from this intensifying shower, whish is extending slowly towards you. But youre quite unlucky to miss the the snow hitting middlesborough, marginally to the south of you. There's quite a bit stacking up down there, only 20/30 miles to the south max.
I remember that i was walking to school one morning(last winter i think) and you can see all those lovly snow clouds(don't know there proper name) all out in sea and it was a bit frustrating. It was on the morning where Carol Kirkwood was in Yorkshire doing the Breckfast forecasts and seems to be enjoying the snow.
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A pretty large Cb cell fractionally to the east of Cleadon at the moment, not moving much- it's well picked out by the radar (I'm using the 5-minute radar provided by N-W Extra, so the shower can be plotted almost in real time) and it's intensifying. The western flank of the cloud is overhead at the moment, but the precipitation-producing part is out at sea still.
Anyway, from the latest radar outputs it looks like those showers are, slowly but surely, closing in from the north and east.
Well here is hoping for a bit of snow tonight and tomorrow. And lets hope that they are not rain showers but i don't think this will be the case because of such low Temp and dew points.
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Yes they do look to have weakened a little,we could do with a stronger onshore breeze to make them penetrate inland.
Problem with a more onshore wind is that it could increase the temps around more coastal areas thanks to the SST. Then again we will just have to wait and see, and i think PPN showing green for snow is still likley to give a dusting and looks preety good for lamp-post watching.
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I was thinking more of the arrows over the far north-east of scotland which have changed from a NW to NE in the last couple of hours.
Oh right!. Well lets hope that is a trend then. That clump of showers seem to of come closer to land albeit weakened slightly(more green than yellow).
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They are getting closer,but very slowly.
Looks like a weak trough,if you look on the chart below the wind behind the clump has turned north-easterly.
If you are on about that arrow out in sea then thats always been a NE direction since early afternoon.
To me looking at between 1900 and 2000 hrs on the rader its seems to me its heading due south. But hey what do i know, 15 year old beginner so i could just be talking a load of bull lol.
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I will confrim that them showers are moving A south slightly southwesterly direction, the air flow has changed now, I am from east yorkshire, them showers will affect yorkshire and around goole/selby between 10:30 - 12 midnight onwards.
Good luck looks like we will both get a covering off this.
Really? The METO rainfall rader is really tricking me at the moment. Sometimes its seems to move ssw and sometimes S. Though i think its moving more S than anything else, I hope the air flow will change very soon because that will help. I wish TWS was here to give his thoughts on this.
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Yes rain showers at the moment,which suprised me although there are snow showers behind,so should give a covering for you by morning.
Nice clump of showers heading for north-east england,although agonisingly slow progress.
Are you sure? Seems to be heading South to me or am i reading the rader wrong? A NNE would really help at this moment but we only got a W wind according to XCweather.
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http://www.trafficscotland.org/views/delay/Ord__5.jpg
snow at low ground on the east coast of scotland PP, you may get sum just yet!
I reckon them beefy showers in the north sea are guna start feeding in soon!Edit: thats helmsdale by the way...
Sadly i'm not as confident as you are but unless the wind swings more NNE then forget about them showers. A N wind won't be too bad but not ideal.
Yes i'll join your snow dome PP. Should make a thunderstorms one 2 in the summer.
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Looks like the only white stuff in the NE England we will see is frost :lol:
Them showers in the North sea ARE heading in a NNE-SSW direction but once its comes closer to the uk theu head back out due to the light Westley wind. Very frustrating because the summer was cr*p and now looks like the winter going to be cr*p. Our chance may come tomorrow but i will not bank on it.
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These are interesting times. We haven't had synoptics like these for several years.
Again the whinging and whining sets in, in some quarters.
What must the weather and models do to keep people happy?
I won't be going off on one tonight, in fact i'm going to bed.
I'm sorry if people thought i was whinging about tonights models but i was just confused in why people were so happy. I've learnt now that this could produce something better than fronttal snowfall.
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Without trying to state the obvious before you can have snow you need the cold air!. If we can tap into the cold air into the continent this can then set up much better snowfall opportunities further along the line than what a transitional spell can do. Some people need to be careful in what they are wishing. Do you want a few hrs of snow followed by 2 weeks of rain or postpone the snowfall in favour of a cold spell that could be more prolonged and offer far more snow event opportunites.
I know which I prefer.
Its depends. Dry easterleys are useless all you get is the odd flurry and frost in the morning. If this was December i think i will accept but not in Feb and the winter we suffered so far. I'm not a expert so i'm going to trust that this run is a upgrade though i'm less convinced.
With frontal snow at least there is snow falling and a chance of its stalling before fragmenting so THATS why i think its a downgrade.
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This run may be an upgrade for cold but not for snow! If you look at percipitation its next to nothing. the easterly will be blowing from a very dry scandinvia sitting under a high pressure. If the 18z came off most of the country wouldn't see even 1cm of lying snow for the next week. If the 12z comes off most places will see between 5-15cm with kids (and me ) building snow men and sledging! Sorry a lower cet for the month doesn't realy do it for its not low temps its snow I want!
Its also confusing me slightly why people are liking this run. Dry easterlys are useless and if this was to be the case then people will be getting bored waking up to frost every morning. However if its a easteley with loads precipitation, then there is room for excitment. Of corse you got to consider that this is only one run so anything is possible.
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I suppose this is what I was saying to JS earlier it's all about your location dictating whether you like this run or not.
Im sure those away from the E will be willing the front to move in across the W whereas us members in the E will be hoping some of the colder shown on the link below comes our way.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn18017.png
Good way of summing up the 18Z is poor for those looking for snowfall because the front would die out pretty quickly on this run. However the potential especially for us in the E is certainly worth watching.
I was just worried that the Easterly will be dry due to being so close to the scandi high. Of corse if this high helps up folk in the east then its definatly a move in the right direction. Then again its not set in stone and loads more runs are needed and the countryfile forecast should be interesting viewing.
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Depends really because at the moment we could see either of these options.
(1) Atlantic moves in bringing rain/less cold temps
(2) Atlantic moves in but rain is preceeded by snow for a few hrs
(3) Atlantic moves in but brings a substantial amount of snow before turning less cold
(4) The Atlantic doesn't move in due to the HP and we remain in cold frosty weather
(5) The Atlantic moves in but the front grinds to a halt bringing heavy snow for some locations before the snow dies away and we remain in the cold air due to the HP.
Worth pointing out that when I say less cold I don't mean mild because recent GFS outputs have suggested we shall stay on the colder side of average.
I would prefer number 3 than number 4. I think people on here wants to see snow and not just V cold and frosty weather so i don't understand the celebrations.
Then again people are more of an expert than me so they may explain why they are so happy with a increasently stronger scando high.
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Cold Spell General Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I bet you be looking out of the window from time to time lol.
From where i'm looking at there are them kind of snow clouds to the East of me heading a ssw direction, Some are that really high level cloud and them fluffy type of clouds. Sorry i do need to learn me clouds i know, but in all seriousness you got a good chance of a covering.