Lettucing Gutted
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Posts posted by Lettucing Gutted
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The nights have been incredibly warm this autumn, this October is only around 1C colder than June which is remarkable with now how shorter the days are
I won't be surprised if the cool down from the summer mean CET minimum to both the October and autumn 2011 mean minimum CET is the smallest on record. The whole summer 2011 mean CET minimum was one of the coldest on record. In contrast autumn 2011 must be one of the warmest on record for mean minimum at least.
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10.5C
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My perfect synoptics in all seasons range from Cool Maritime Polar Zonality from the Atlantic to very cold Continental Polar air from the North Pole/Arctic via Northwest-Northeasterlies and from Europe via straight Easterlies.
Below are my perfect examples cold Continental Polar Easterlies straight from Europe:-
http://www.wetterzen...00119870112.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119860210.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119960313.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00119890404.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00119550528.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00120031023.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00119651114.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00120101201.gif
Below are my perfect examples cold Continental Polar Northwest-Northeasterlies straight from the North Pole/Arctic:-
http://www.wetterzen...00119580122.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119690208.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119700305.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119080424.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119350517.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119970626.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00119650704.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119120828.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119180929.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119931016.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00119731126.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119811212.gif*
Below are my perfect examples of Cool Maritime Polar Zonality from the Atlantic:-
http://www.wetterzen...00119840115.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119960225.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00119950302.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00119900414.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00119860514.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119230611.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00120080626.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00120070703.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00119070810.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119500908.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119831016.gif*
http://www.wetterzen...00119961108.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00119141219.gif*
*=I have have not experienced these examples.
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Strange temp profiles for the globe.
Indeed it looks like a cool summer over most of the southern hemisphere. Also Tibet looks warm in winter whilst India looks cool at the same time. Very strange. Since Tibet is the source of the cool, dry winter monsoon logically both India and Tibet should be cooler than average.
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To add to my list eventhough I am a fan of record cold weather I would also like to relive months with switcharounds from pleasent mildness/heat to sharply cooler/colder conditions in the same month.
January 1958 3.4C
February 1987 3.6C
March 1995 5.6C
April 1981 7.8C
May 1935 9.9C
June 1997 14.1C
July 2009 16.1C
August 1940 15.6C
September 1919 12.7C
October 1997 10.2C
November 2005 6.2C
December 2009 3.1C
Year C.E.T 9.02C
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Like "Spirit of 1740" I would like to relieve cold months all year round.
January 1795 -3.1C
February 1947 -1.9C
March 1674 1C
April 1701 & 1837 all 4.7C!
May 1698 8.5C
June 1675 11.5C
July 1816 13.4C
August 1912 12.9C
September 1674, 1675, 1694 & 1807 all 10.5C!!
October 1740 5.3C
November 1782 2.3C
December 1890 -0.8C
Year C.E.T 5.36C
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What would I want from an October? Lots of variety- at least one notable southerly plume (of the 8th October 1995 type variety), at least one notable northerly blast
Switcharounds! That would be a very interesting October if that happened. Recent Octobers have been very remarkable for their consistent start to finish range in temperatures and lack of big switcharounds with Octobers 2001, 2005, 2006 and 2009 being consistently mild to very mild whilst Octobers 1992, 1993, 2003 and 2008 have been consistently cold to very cold. Octobers like 1998 and 2004 have often been consistently slightly below to slightly above average. Octobers with wildly varying start to finish conditions were common in the 1920s and 1930s with Octobers like 1922, 1926, 1933 and 1934 having very warm, sunny and humid Continental Tropical southerly winds followed later in the month by very cold, sunny and snowy Continental Polar northerly winds. The only Octobers in recent years to have such big switcharounds were Octobers 1997 and to a less extreme extent 2010.
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In addition to extreme winds, waves and rainfall ex-hurricanes can also have contrasting effects on temperature over Britain. On the one hand on 21st September 2006 because he stalled to the immediate west of the UK ex-Hurricane Gordon drew up exceptionally warm and humid Continental Tropical air from the south with sunshine, humidity and warmth as high as 30C in the East-Midlands and a very high mean daily CET of 21.4C. In the already very warm September 2006 this hot spell secured September 2006 as the hottest September on record for the CET at least.
http://www.personal....006_weather.htm Thanks to Trevor Harley
http://www.wetterzen...00220060921.gif
http://www.wetterzen...00120060921.gif
http://www.metoffice...cetdl1772on.dat
On the other hand and in complete contrast on 25th August 1986 ex-Hurricane Charley combined with the southern boundary and Jetstream of a very large Polar Cell (for August) which extended all the way from the Arctic to over Britain. Ex-Hurricane Charley's powerful upper outflow strengthened the existing Polar Cell even more pulling down very cool and dry Continental Polar air from the North Pole. On 25th August 1986 were ex-Hurricane Charley's rainfall as high as 25 mm+ fell and evaporated into the the unseasonaly cool, dry air maximum temperatures failed to rise above 10C! In addition were skies cleared temperatures fell to a minimum as low as -3.4C at Kinbrace (Scottish Highlands) with a very cool mean daily CET of 11.5C again both of these on 25th August 1986. In the already cool August of 1986 this cold spell secured August 1986 as the one of the coldest Augusts on record for the CET and the coldest since 1956. The 25th August 1986 alone was the coldest and wettest August Bank Holiday on record.
http://www.personal....986_weather.htm Thanks again Trevor Harley
http://www.wetterzen...00219860825.gif
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If we get a warm autumn on top of the very mild February-May period this will mean that 2011 will be the warmest 10C or more year to achieve a cool summer sub 15C.
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My favourite weather types are "only a cold and snowy winter" and "cool, dry and sunny summer" because I am a cold lover. B)
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The difference between April and June was just 2.0C which is very small between those two months.( The average is nearer to 6C) Could be the smallest difference between the two months on record.
Indeed. That is in complete contrast to 1837 which probably had the biggest April to June increase on record when the coldest April on record 4.7 (which is equal to the 1961-1990 December CET average!) was followed by a very warm June 15.5C.
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My least favourite summer patterns would be warm core/tongue anticyclones centred over Britain and any Spanish Plume because they give hot and humid weather which I hate. It makes days uncomfortable and nights sleepless. My favourite summer patterns would be cold Northeasterlies through to cold Northwesterlies. They don't always give low cloud. If the air is sourced from a colder than normal North Pole they can give excellent sunshine and convective activity. As for low pressure systems; if they are filled with Maritime Tropical air they can feel almost as uncomfortably warm as an Azores High especially by night (think August 2004 - cyclonic yet both very wet and very warm). However if they contain unmodified Maritime Polar air they can be quite invigorating with "clean crisp sunshine" and showers in between similar to clean Northerlies.
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7th of august: heavy snow in the alps above 1300m,
I am surprised to read of snow in the alps on 7/8/1978. The 552 HPA Polar jetstream was split in two with one vortex covering the Labrador current and Greenland whilst the other one was well to the north over Northern Russia. The 850 HPA airmass doesn't look particular cold with the 15C isotherm over the Swiss Alps.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1978/Rrea00119780807.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/archive/ra/1978/Rrea00219780807.gif
Sorry, got it wrong for 1972.
1971 had an extremely cold June. and if 1977 was actually dry in Britain, it was one of the most rainy summers in France. In fact, this is due to an unusual pattern on the Atlantic, with low pressure often very south and high pressure constantly blocking the way to Scandinavia over the north Atlantic.
Heres an example, beginning of July 1977: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=8&month=7&year=1977&hour=0&map=0&mode=0
In the end there was no classic spell of westerly winds during this summer: Either cold northerly blasts, or fresh north easterly winds.
Indeed. Infact this pattern of High Latitude North Atlantic blocking highs and southerly tracking lows was very common in all seasons from 1960-1988 due to the combination of the cold phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation and the cold La Nina base state of the Pacific which both lasted the same length of time.
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The "even larger teapot Era UK warming" has returned. 15.5C
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The CET is going to race upwards in the next 7 days, looking very mild indeed with some days probably averaging close to 10C, probably be upto 5.5-6C by the 20th. Hints of something decently colder developing beyond then but the damage will likely be done by then and its going to require a pretty decent cold spell to end up much below average.
IMO between 4-5C looks the most likely call...
Sod's law. I punt below average and I end up too low! By the way it looks like December 2010-January 2011 will see the biggest December-January increase on record perhaps even beating the December 1673-January 1674 increase from 0.5C upto 5C.
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3.5C
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Longterm solar cycle has shoved the jetstream south and we are reverting to a pattern more akin to the period 40-70s. It is IMO the start and yes reverting to type with periods much further back to look forward too....?
BFTP
But do global temperatures support this? (hint: NO)
We look at the wider picture in meteorology. Not an area covering 94,000 square miles!
It seems the Arctic temperatures have gone out of phase with the Jet Stream over the last 4 years. Eventhough the Jet Stream has gone south again the Arctic is still very mild and still losing ice. Is this a temporary pattern due to the southerly tracking Jet cutting off deep warm Subtropical Highs over the North Pole? Will this continue or will the southerly tracking Jet lead to a stronger and bigger Polar Cell with less southerly warm plumes and causing a cold Arctic High with cooling the Arctic and restoring the Arctic ice?
December CET
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
9C