Lettucing Gutted
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Posts posted by Lettucing Gutted
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I play my Half-Life 2 and Synergy games on Steam when the weather looks dull.
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Although it was not renowned for snow. I remember a temporary dusting of snow on the morning of 17th May 1996. This was the only time I have ever seen snow in May and at School in Blackpool of all places.
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Since ChrisHell's website has died I'm going to slowly but surely reconstruct his list of CET month halves since 1772.ChrisHell' timestamp='1352308329' ]Posted 12 August 2007 - 20:28
Thought you might be interested in CET Tracker for each month since 1772
http://www.hellon.co.../cettracker.txt
and also month halves since 1772
http://www.hellon.co...nthlyhalves.txt
based on the MO Hadley CET Data
http://hadobs.metoff...a/download.html
Edited by ChrisHell, 12 August 2007 - 20:29 .
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Yeah 6C-7C sounds very reasonable. As much as I would love for November 2012 to be below 6C or even 5C we must be realistic with expectations. Post 1998 only 2 Novembers have failed to reach 7C for the final CET which were Novembers 2005 and 2010 and both of those Novembers had unbelievable switcharounds of the highest magnitude and stretching the statistical probability of such CET crashes in one month even for cooling months.Mixed signals for the 2nd half of the month. If I had to pin the tail on the donkey now for the whole month, it would be be somewhere between 6C and 7C, so still a decent chance of below average against some if not all measures.
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I read in my "Introduction To Atmosphere, Weather and Climate" textbook that Calgary can reach 21C even during January in westerly Chinook events. Calgary must surely be furthest north a temperature of 20C or higher can be experienced in December through February.Isn't Calgary capable of 20C in the depths of winter when a Chinook rolls into town? Or is it more like mid teens?
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That means we have also seen the first thundersnow event of winter 2012/2013.There was some lightning activity overnight in the North Sea(south area)this could mean that further thunder could happen in the heavier wintry showers.
ESS
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Another great snow setup which benefits practically all areas of Britain is the Polar Low in an Arctic Northerly flow.Exactly - I reckon a good East or North Easterly could easily push snow showers right the way through Birmingham and to the Eastern part of Wales, but mind you they would find it difficult to find their way to the Welsh coast in tact or as potent due to the Welsh mountains.
Like I said "most" cases if you bothered to read my post properly, in some cases there are exceptions.
Here is an example from the 4th March 1970.
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I bet there won't be much difference between either half of October 2012 and the second halfs of December 2011 and February 2012 and both halfs of March 2012. By the way I forgot the name of that website that had the C.E.T for each half of every month.
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Stratosferric, North Easterly Blast, Ian Brown,Tamara and Snowmaiden should see this.Looks like the 5th month this year that is going to return a month that will be at least 0.5C below the 1961-90 average. I was pinching myself when I wrote that because to think how we use to struggle to return such months and then got excited by a month that was only a tiny bit below the 1971-2000 average!
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This situation also occurred in February 2009. In late January 2009 the Arctic Stratosphere experienced a record breaking increase in temperature in terms of both rate and magnitude and yet similar to February 2012 we had a very cold first half followed by one of the warmest second halves of February on record.Yes we can get below average temps with no significant warming because thats exactly what happened in Dec 2009. Like I said a few days ago I revisited the 2009 strat thread and no SSW occurred prior to that cold spell. If anything during Dec posts were suggesting the opposite and yet Jan 2010 was record breakingly cold. On the flip side I have read posts predicting that N blocking will occur due to a SSW and yet all that occurred was a strong PV. This was clearly seen this Feb because I recall many were baffled why the model output was so disappointing.
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I wish for a very cold Arctic and a raging southerly tracking Subtropical Jet and a raging southerly tracking southern arm of the Polar Jet. This combined with a gentle and highly amplified northern arm of the Polar Jet with a sub 540 HPA upper level trough digging all the way down from the North Pole into Scandi and Western Europe to create the coldest ever summer Continental Polar Northerly blast to rival the likes of even 2nd June 1975, July 1888 and August 1912. This should reload all summer long.Another Summer just like the one previous please.
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Indeed. I know this is FI and only for the end of October but the beauty with this Polar Vortex setup is that unlike the recent "Warm Arctic-Cold Continents" pattern which brought very cold winter weather to many mid-latitude areas (including the UK) in the winters of 2009-2010 and 2010/2011 but also exceptionally warm conditions to the Arctic which then resulted though modification in the Arctic of the Arctic airmass dramatic flips from very cold to very warm conditions throughout the Northern Hemisphere in the late winter/early spring. This Polar Vortex setup from the GFS 18z on the other hand if sustained allows the constant regeneration and maintenance of Arctic air over the Arctic aswell as its sustained and unmodified advection into the mid-latitudes so its a "Cold Arctic-Cold Continents" pattern like the classic setup from the winter of 1962-1963. http://www.meteociel...12&map=0&mode=0GFS 18z been in the pub since the 06z
Looks like it took the PV with it..
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Top 25 warmest Octobers. Here we come again...Should be a rapid rise next week as an Indian summer pushes in from the South East. Night time lows close to the day time max so I would reckon sub ten is unlikely. Before that little or no change. If any change it will be upwards.
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Interestingly although the Polar Vortex in the winters of 1962-1963 and 1978-1979 was very distorted the remaining centres still had very low (purple) and extensive very low heights over the Canadian Arctic, Siberia and the far north of Scandinavia and even the North Pole. In effect the Polar Vortex setups of the 1962-1963 and 1978-1979 winters was a halfway house between the very distorted and diluted (less extensive purple heights) centres of the winters of 1995-1996 and 2009/2010 on the one hand and the slightly distorted and very deep North Pole centres of the 1986-1987 winter on the other hand.A distorted vortex does not need to be too distorted to give cold outbreaks - it really just needs to be distorted in the right position to produce cold to head to the UK ( or warmth if that floats your boat!)
Here is one minor distortion that was perfect for the UK:
However, I would say that the greater the distortion, the more difficult that it would be for the vortex to reform - and so on this basis that is what I would prefer to see.
http://www.meteociel...12&map=0&mode=0
http://www.meteociel...12&map=0&mode=0
http://www.meteociel...12&map=0&mode=0
http://www.meteociel...12&map=0&mode=0
In the very cold Northern Hemisphere winters like 1962-1963 the persistence of those purple heights in the distorted and expanded Polar Vortex allowed the constant maintenance and generation of extremely cold air throughout the Northern Hemisphere though deep Cold Air Advection, radiative cooling and adiabatic cooling in the very dry and steep lapse rates. It was thanks to this and the wholesale Southerly Tracking Arctic, Polar and Subtropical Jetstreams that the very cold and extensive Continental Polar airmasses only began to warm out in late winter almost in Spring.
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We managed that as recently as October 2009.for the month to be above 10 would require the 2nd half of the month to be warmer than the 1st. I suspect there are very few Octobers that have managed that.
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29th December 1996
That is a rare sight on the 29/12/96 forecast chart. 3 cold fronts in 1 easterly flow on the same day.
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Another target to aim for would be that this is the first October since 2004 not to achieve a maximum temperature of 20C or higher anywhere in the country.
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The winter of 2009-2010 showed that even a strong El Nino is very good for cold weather here. The great thing about that El Nino was that its toasty Warm Pool was West Based i.e. in the Tropical Western Pacific Ocean in contrast to the more common East Based El Nino Warm Pools in the Tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean. With the strong El Nino Warm Pool West Based this actually enhanced the signal for a Negative Pacific Decadel Oscillation phase. The West Based El Nino signal also combined with the -ve PDO to create a Positive Pacific North America Pattern phase. This whole setup created an Upper Level Trough over the Midlatitude North Eastern Pacific Ocean, an Upper Level Ridge over the Western United States and an Upper Level Trough over the Eastern United States. This combination also means the main Upper Level Westerly Jet Stream leaves the United States on a Southerly Track which also sets up a powerful Negative North Atlantic Oscillation and Negative Arctic Oscillation phase.Not sure that is true. Lots depends on the severity of Nina or Nino - it is not a one size fits all weather driver. My understanding is that a weak Nino to neutral ENSO is statistically very good for cold weather over here. Strong La Nina conditions tend to favor a more active vortex in the early part of winter...
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Every month from and including November 1878 to January 1880 were below average against 1841-70 averages.
In modern times every month from March 1962 to February 1963 inclusive was below the 1961-1990 average CET.Yeah we'll see if 2012 can draw level...
By the way, does anybody know... what is the longest run of below average months?
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Wow! That frigid Bartlett Polar Cell would be a cold lovers dream just in mid-winter... but in November... incredible! Not even the classic November cold snaps of 1919 and 2010 produced 500mb heights THAT low over Europe.This was the chart i originally posted but because the 18z came out it must have automatically overridden it.
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This situation reminds of 1993. In that Summer and Autumn there was a big cold pool in the High-Latitude North Atlantic and at the same time a weak El Nino was being canceled out by a Negative PDO phase. This led to one of the coldest Autumns of the 20th Century and even the average CET for winter 1993/1994 masked the classic cold zonality of December 1993 and January 1994. February 1994 was a classic month with two big easterly cold spells!I suspect that it will last personally.
What we tend to see in spring is massive melt causing cold anomalies whilst warm anomalies in Autumn pre-freeze so the fact that we have such a pattern is encouraging to see.
Personally i find the PDO situation fascinating, rather than being moderated by a strengthening El Nino it looks as though the PDO may be comprehensively winning the battle and El Nino in areas 1 and 2 is fading.
January 2013 CET (2012/13 Competition)
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
8C...