Agree with that. The frontal boundary itself will likely provide an element of forcing. It will again be close to a nowcast event, as in often the way with potential thundery activity
Not sure about the "precipitation" in NW France. Could well be anaprop. However some good storms brewing in NE Spain now. They'll be too far east for us I guess but it highlights the instability on the eastern side of the front
http://www.sat24.nl/sp