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xerxes

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Posts posted by xerxes

    Convective/storm Discussion 5Th August >>

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    Looking at the various charts and atmospheric conditions. The rain indeed looks convective with embedded thundery outbreaks. This looks like a classic example of elevated convection taking place as the front is envigorated by the warm humid airmass being advected from the SE and interacting with the stalled front. In these situations heavy thundery rain and possibly stronger isolated cells don't require huge ammounts of cape for iniation.

    Agree with that. The frontal boundary itself will likely provide an element of forcing. It will again be close to a nowcast event, as in often the way with potential thundery activity :)

    Possibly, it does appear tomorrow evening is the more promising! But to be honest, tonight could produce something also - the signs are there.

    Appears to be something starting over NW France - either that or it's just insignificant, or anaprop.

    Not sure about the "precipitation" in NW France. Could well be anaprop. However some good storms brewing in NE Spain now. They'll be too far east for us I guess but it highlights the instability on the eastern side of the front

    http://www.sat24.nl/sp

    Today's Weather And General Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Rather cloudy am, sunny intervals pm. Cool and breezy (NW).

    Min: 11.2c @ 0100

    Max: 17.9c @ 1400

    Rain yesterday: 5.9mm

    Rain since 10am: Trace

    Currently: Mainly cloudy, cool.

    Temp: 12.3c

    Pressure: 1016mbar, rising.

    Parts of the MIdlands reached 22c today hardly the mid teens you were predicting for mid week.

    I was quite pleased to reach 20c just ahead of the showers yesterdayafternoon

    Easter Weekend Chill/Freeze

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Some really exciting weather here as the cold front moving through with very blustery winds indeed and squally showers, what a fantastic easter weekend we have ahead of us, i'm going to be out enjoying the cold wintry conditions thats for sure, head for the hills is my advice B)

    Just posted about the very heavy squally rain in the current conditions thread. Very organised band of rain now and it lasted 30 minutes with strong gusty winds. I think there was hail but cannot confirm. (from Basingstoke) :D

    Birds and spring displays

    in Space, Science & nature

    Posted

    Locally, certain birds have already started visiting nest boxes(esp. Blue Tits) to check out nesting sites. Overall its been very mild so its no surprise that its happening. This only really causes early nesters problems if harsh cold arrives later on in March/April when eggs are laid and waiting to hatch

    butterfly

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Yes when I was very young in the 60’s, we often went to Devon for our family holiday’s and I remember seeing many Speckled Wood butterflies in the country lanes, it seemed quite special to see them as I never saw them at home in the midlands, but in the last 15 to 20years they made an appearance in my garden and have recently become quite a common butterfly, even now when I see them, my mind goes way back to our family holidays.

    Talking of butterflies, I saw a strange sight today in Burton Town Centre, a Peacock Butterfly was on the wing next to a south facing wall in sunshine, amazing considering frost was still around in the shade.

    Paul

    Those butterflies that hibernate seem to choose odd times to re-emerge. You sometimes get random sightings of these species throughout winter. I know that Red Admirals(who it was once thought were not able to survive our winter) appear in January as I saw 3 locally this year in that month :lol:

    Is this winter going to go pear shaped?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Of course winter will go pear shaped. Not everyone will be happy all the time. Everyone will miss out some of the time, and someone will miss out every time. Anyone could end up with everything they had hoped for. And someone could end up with nothing. No-one should have what everyone wants to avoid. But anyone could get what someone doesn't want. Someone could end up getting anything. And everyone could get nothing. Let's just hope we all get it all.

    I just hope it snows.

    Snowone can blame me for dreaming.

    Well I hope you get your snow. I can't help thinking that the lack of zonality could end up in payback bigtime soon and just in time for winter. That may not be all bad as parts of the N may well get transitional snow at least and with all the systems that come along it won't be boring :rolleyes:

    Annual CET 2007

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Well since we're going to be getting another 10+ yearly average all that shows that we may have reached a plateau. Now whether this is temporary or not is another question. Six months of averagish months doesn't really indicate a major change.

    I agree with that. We've certainly had some "interesting" synoptics and not the usual zonal ride through autumn. If we had I expect that things would have been markedly different. A sudden switch back to full on zonality may ease such speculation though :rolleyes:

    Is this winter going to go pear shaped?

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    My current estimate is that most of the winter will be mild but there could be one decent cold spell in each of December and January. So take what you can get, it may not be a lot, but it may beat out some of the past ten winters by a small margin.

    Wind may be the bigger factor than cold in terms of active weather. Energy peaks are very high and focussed in the research model, particularly around 24-25 Dec, 6-7 Jan and 20-23 Jan. After the Piers Corbyn business I don't want to be too specific, but one or more of these periods could produce a memorable windstorm this winter. If cold does not make any significant appearance, then something like 1990 could develop out of the synoptics available.

    I would be surprised if the winter got into the memorable cold category, but not so surprised if it produced an epic windstorm.

    Will currently revise my previous winter outlook slightly and go for CET values around 5.5, 3.5 and 6.5 for the three winter months. I think that will produce a near normal seasonal average.

    My winter forecast will be out shortly. Suffice to say that I'm not exoecting great things at the start! :rolleyes:

    August CET

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    There may be a bit of a drop before then though. A quick scan of CET stations indicate minima last night of 9/10C and maxima today of only 17/18C. The next few days will be cool overall. To obtain 17C we will need the right orientation of the high later next week and equally as important for it to stay put for several days preferably to the end of the month. That will suit me as I'm holidaying in Cornwall during the last week of this month!

    The "safe" call now would be to say something close to average. I think the doom-mongering about this month in some quarters(not on here) has been excessive and although it won't be hot one,average will seem pretty good after the July experience :)

    Leaf-fall

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Quite a major leaf fall(finally) in the last week. Many trees still holding a fair load though,especially Sycamore and Oak(which is usually late anyway). Haven't quite had the predicted gales here recently so thats not had the effect it might have. I usually find frost is a major factor in sudden leaf fall. No chance of that soon :doh:

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