Stephen W
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Posts posted by Stephen W
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38 minutes ago, Nick F said:
Window does seem to be narrowing, for now on 00z EC and now 06z GFS, for next week's cold spell, may just about squeeze it out to the end of the week in the south, the north Sunday. Our modern foe the Iberian high seems to be ruining things again, despite strat-trop coupling leading to Greenland high following the SSW and supposedly favourable lag MJO trop forcing over the Pacific.
But we still have at least a few days of snow potential, not really worth looking at beyond Wednesday, but 06z GFS showing potential for some back-edge snow along the cold front clearing south early Tuesday morning
UKV hints at it too ...
Yes, it’s looking like a very short lived affair based on today’s MO.. Quite disappointing given the recent SSW and background signals but seems like the Iberian ridge is scuppering our cold prospects again with some very mild temps possible in the south next weekend. I’m not overly positive of seeing a decent snow event either in my back yard on the north Norfolk coast. Could easily be a cold rain and sleety mix like back in December when London managed to get a proper dumping. We need deep cold if there is an onshore wind here. Maybe I’ll be wrong. And any channel low tends to miss us too!
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I think we are all going to have a rant this morning having viewed the overnight model output, despite this not being the moaning thread! It’s all getting really tiresome now, waiting, waiting, waiting. Thanks to MattH for summing up the synoptic situation so clearly this morning. So, the set up would have to be pretty special to deliver wintry conditions from mid March onwards. You’d have to say that based on this winter’s track record, unlikely! Personally, I’m also past the point come that time of year. Cold rain (which is probably most likely in my location, warm rain welcome though) and sharp frosts not great in Spring especially if you’re a gardener like me.
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Gosh, what a tedious winter this has been. Just feels like model output has been stuck on repeat for weeks with a meandering high pressure in or around the UK. I’m hanging in there to see if anything noteworthy comes from the SSW impacts. Some tantalising charts appearing but still very much FI although as others have mentioned perhaps to be expected given time lags. Every day feels like t300+ though for anything particularly eye watering to look at! We also need precipitation and that’s not looking especially likely anytime soon.
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3 minutes ago, KTtom said:
I think Gowon is reffering to dry generally, which the gfs certainly is, pretty much throughout the run.
Yes, that seems the biggest certainty along with a general cool down this week. The deep cold with potential snow still in FI although general direction and trend towards it is still present in this morning’s output. To me though lots of spoilers to get through as always so difficult to get too excited when it’s all so far out. I’d also be worried too if we stay dry for too much longer..
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53 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:
Yes, good run, and decent from the GEM too. GFS probably due to roll in a poorer one, so we’ll let that go. The main event, if I can call it that, of the vortex migration and Greenland high, is too far away to get hung up on every run. Having said that, and looking at the ensembles, I think there’s actually a slightly wider range of evolutions post day 10 than there was yesterday, so will be interested to see if that is reflected in the clusters in an hour or so.
Should the GFS be discounted? Does it not show the risk of a west based -NAO?
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1 minute ago, SLEETY said:
It rained every day for a month after the cold spell here ended in December,flooding everywhere.Major motorway shut for days causing chaos here as water running off the fields turned to ice on the roads when the colder weather came back in Mid Jan.How can a month of not much rain afterwards mean its too dry.What happens to all the rain we had.
If the cold doesnt arrive soon then mid-march onwards it too late for snow to last long away from higher ground.Typical
I agree and it sounds like it was exceptionally wet where you are. However, taking England as a whole, I think you’ll find that the winter will end drier than average by end Feb and that comes after a dry winter last year and an exceptionally dry and hot summer with reservoir levels depleted. I get that it doesn’t feel like that though for your location!
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2 hours ago, CreweCold said:
HP across the UK fits in very nicely with the EC46 anomalies I saw yesterday. So to end February and begin March, that has to be the favoured outcome IMO as the GFS ops are gunning for that scenario too.
Remember, if there are clear skies then slack winds and uppers of -6 will feel fairly pleasant during daytime hours by March. we await the deeper cold (hopefully) slightly further into the month.
Agreed and also ties in with METO thoughts too. However, they give only a small chance (currently) of much colder conditions developing in March. At the moment, no dramatic developments appearing in the model output. More of the same really. We do need precipitation of one sort or another and a reasonable amount too before March is out, for our reservoirs and gardens. It’s too dry for large parts of England in particular. I am personally sick of seeing HP gravitate towards the UK..
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9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
I'm not really sure where I should post this, but as it closes with a discussion on SSWs, and in particular the one currently ongoing, I think this would be the best place.
Pretty much ties in with the Met Office longer range forecast. They talk about probabilities and at the moment the probability of much colder weather is low as we head further into March. I’m struggling to get that excited about the output at the moment but hopefully that might change over the next week or so. It does feel like more of the same for the foreseeable. Some models suggest amplification which allows for colder conditions but the tendency seems to be for high pressure to settle towards or over the UK. So, that suggests some colder nights but with sun, still some pleasant days. It’s pretty much the story of this winter since Jan. Very tedious unless you like long periods of dry, settled weather. Can’t deny it is very pleasant to be outdoors but that’s not my preference in Feb when there hasn’t been much wintry weather prior.!
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39 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
No sign yet of any major change to the NH pattern in the ten day period .
The PV happily sitting in its favourite winter location and the high camping out to the south .
I’m going to reserve judgement on the longer term prospects until the SSW reversal happens.
I can understand the patience of coldies is wearing very thin now because we don’t have a lot of winter left .
Things we do know is there will be a strat reversal and the MJO is currently projected to move into the more favourable phases . The issue is how much if any impact there is on the trop and the time it takes to occur .
I’m beginning to think it could be the second warming that finally finishes off the blob of doom as that does come with the MJO in its more favourable phase but of course an earlier trop impact would be very welcome .
Anyway if both the SSW and MJO combined don’t trigger a change then of course I will be throwing my toys out of the pram at a later date !
Model fatigue definitely. It does feel like Groundhog Day watching the models churn out the same or similar pattern of PV to the north and high pressure to the south keeping us in a weather land of boredom. It’s looking likely we will see February out with not much change and very dry. Putting my gardener hat on, I would like precipitation soon, rain or snow (pref the latter obviously) ! Some hints of a pattern change but then the reset button seems to get pressed. I guess we keep waiting a bit longer to see how SSW/MJO combo plays out..
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2 hours ago, damianslaw said:
Mmm ECM has changed its mind now showing the high pressure much more resilient in line with the GFS and despite a strong robust PV to the north, for some reason it can't seem to imprint on the UK, this has been the main feature of winter 22-23, just when there are signs the atlantic is about to go on full charge it is blocked from doing so.
Given the outlook, southern parts of the UK will be about to endure a very barren dry 4 week period rainfall wise.. even further north not much rain on the horizon after a preety dry 3 weeks now.
Watching the synoptics at the moment I think of the Kylie Minogue song 'Im spinning around' - to describe the high pressure that has been close to or over our shores all winter it seems.. the next line ' move out of my way' - its speaking to the atlantic... ha ha.. it is also reminding me of watching washing spinning around on a slow cycle in the washing machine or tumble drier. This winter is feeling like a film on slow motion and little action..
I am liking the Kylie analogy! We seem to be traversing the high pressures, ie just going round and round. Model output has been like watching paint dry since New Year. And, I agree re rainfall. Whilst many have yearned for a dry spell, we do actually still need rain given the severe lack of it this last 12 months. It’s only panning out average this winter so far for many parts of the UK and so likely to be below when we’re done with February.
I’d actually just like some variety, snow preferably but that’s not looking likely this month. A bit of wind and rain wouldn’t go amiss as long as we don’t get weeks of it. These blocked patterns of nothingness are just monotonous. Whilst I read with interest what’s happening in the strat, there seems little manifestation in long term model output at present.
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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:The latest ICON 06 hrs run has edged the high further north .
Still some uncertainty remains as to where the high will set up and whether any colder air could move nw into the UK from its southern flank.
The GEM 06 hrs run is a smidge further north . I’m doing my best here to drum up some excitement!
Always enjoy reading your posts. Trust your knowledge and you always say how it is. You’re also not personally invested as you’re not in the UK so aren’t swayed by the excitement (false) like some of us can be! I have to say that model fatigue is beginning to set in for me now. It’s all been rather underwhelming this winter and I don’t see this changing in the near future. We are just chasing the high pressure it would seem, hoping this ends up somewhere favourable for us. It has been the case for a few weeks now. We’ve managed some impressive cold nights but I’ve not managed one snowflake so far. I know others did better in December though. Spring definitely feels like it is emerging this week..
Suggestions of a cold March as a result of stratospheric warming don’t fill me with the same excitement, especially since that’s the start of gardening season.
Thanks for your posts to the forum!
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57 minutes ago, Catacol said:
If modelling is to be believed - and it is within reliable range now - the big strat attack starts on Monday
As the swift change occurs the volatility of the models will increase. 5 days after the vortex begins to scream we have an Atlantic pattern that is poised tantalisingly - anomalously high pressure to our west and clear potential for ridging
but to deliver fully we are going to need a downwelling trop response to the warming that can weaken westerlies within the TPV. Why? Because the MJO begins to work against high lat blocking once we get through next week and we have had a recent drop in AAM down to neutral levels
Note however that still the atmosphere is resisting slipping into late winter nightmare Nina flatness - see the mid Atlantic ridge and cold few days we have had and are still having - so tropospheric interest is not all gone - but note the IO position of the MJO, never a good position for -NAO type patterns so until MJO 6/7 reappears again I think our neutral momentum pattern is going to need a kick in order to deliver a cold pattern.Will that kick come? The million dollar question. Even Amy Butler hedging her bets just now on Twitter. No sign yet of a decisive split and there are clear risks with a displacement. More watching and waiting!
p.s - it has just started to rain here. Unbelievable. Snow hates me
Thank you for your posts, always informative and clear. It does feel like we are going to need quite a bit of luck for things to deliver in our favour. Whilst there is an attack on the strat forecast, there are other teleconnections also working against this so it sounds very difficult to call at this point.
I share your pain re snow. I live in North Norfolk and haven’t seen a flake and the same was true last year. Can’t believe we’ve had two fairly sharp cold blasts from the north and still only managed rain showers here. Used to be that a decent northerly would deliver here. Not had a direct one of those for some time. Feels like east coast is no longer favoured unless you get deep, deep cold.
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7.2C and 38mm. I think it could be exceptionally mild and dry, especially southern England.
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Anyone know when the driest January/February was on record? This is turning into one of the driest January's I can remember in a very long while and one of the most boring winters I can recall. I'm not so sure February is going to be a whole lot different either. This pattern seems entrenched. I know a lot of people hate the rain and wind but I'd just like to see a whole pattern reset with some more active/interesting weather, not relentless and for days on end but just to break the monotony of what we currently have. Also, whilst I appreciate that many are enjoying the dry weather, this could have consequences in the summer as most of our useful rainfall for replenishing reservoirs etc comes in the winter. And, yes, I know most will say we will probably have a wet Spring/Summer now and that's obviously possible but we do still need winter rainfall.
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A month of extremes indeed! Quite astonishing really. Pretty solid agreement for an extended period of very mild if not warm temperatures. I may be looking at this through short memory syndrome but it does feel like Spring arrives much earlier these days. I’m all for Spring in Spring! Just a shame we couldn’t have held on to winter for a couple of weeks longer and especially for those who have missed out. March can deliver of course and there are signs of a cool down as we head into March but the signal for deep cold seems to be less at the moment, IMO.
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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
Good agreement on the overall pattern for Western Europe but the all important detail for the UK still remains elusive . Blocking shifts more nw over time and a surface high to the ne helps to keep the jet further south.
Northern areas members should be least stressed because of the high margin for error there . The stress factor rises as you head further south because the models are reluctant to take the coldest air sufficiently south to allow for a higher margin for error .
Theres lots of snow potential , heavy snow showers and frontal snow but the latter aspect can’t be resolved yet.
I 100% agree with this. The margin for marginal in the south remains! The placement of the low looks to me like it could go right to the wire with 50-100 miles making all the difference which is nothing in the scale of things. So, any of us in the south will have to live on our nerves for a few days yet. Some luck is required. Overall though, there is more cross model agreement this morning so that’s a positive.
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Whilst the ECM mean may still look ok, I’m more concerned that the op and control are beginning to head in a direction akin to the gfs in the shorter timeframe. So, is the ECM beginning to pick up the same signal as the GfS now? I have to say it’s always a bit worrying when the op starts to diverge from other members. In theory, they should be more accurate in the shorter timeframe? I guess GFS and ECM may beginning to converge. Unfortunately, I fear that for the southern half of the country, that may just be a diluted option which is disappointing and delivers little. Here where I live, I’ve been willing for some of the previous systems which have given snow to the midlands/north to edge further north and east. This time I’m willing this low pressure to move south and east!
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It seems difficult to know which model is leading the way. It seems to me GFS and ECM have flipped and either solution is still plausible. It’s all on a knife edge, more especially for the south.
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5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
I don’t think the run is correct. My point is that some were saying it’s not a bad run for the north and it’s just the southerners that are moaning. Fact is this run showed no snow for anyone away from Scotland where as the 00z run the UK was covered from top to toe. I’m sure the 06z GFS is nutmeat a wobble and we will be back on track this evening. Problem is we have so many runs to view there is always going to be one or two that wobble
I don’t think this can be discounted at all. To me the whole ensemble suite looks less favourable than the 00z. It’s the low pressure that’s causing the issue and it’s failure to sink that’s preventing the cold from spilling south. The ECM has been showing this scenario within its op for sometime so to me it could be that the GFS is finally picking up this signal too. That isn’t good a good sign IMO. Obviously only one run but not without support.
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16 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
People will disagree but the EC is pretty awful this morning. Glancing blow of sufficiently cold uppers for most.
GFS not great with its mid lat HP scenario into FI.
UKMO is meh.
We're basically hanging on the GEFS and GEM. That isn't a great situation to be in.
I agree with your view. The EC is once again poor this morning. The low sitting over us seems to take forever to fill and that seems to have been a pattern throughout the winter. The GFS delivers more deep cold but for how long. There seems to be a tendency also for the cold to be pushed towards SE Europe. The ensembles for Athens are hinting at that. The High sinks south to allow this. Easterlies are so difficult to predict right to the wire.
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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:
Not really - No sub -4c air makes it a pretty poor effort
I have to agree completely. Underwhelming 850’s, much like this current cold spell. Deep cold needed and I’m not getting a confident sense of that yet from current output. Tantalisingly close. As you say, need euros on board and within a reliable timeframe. There seem to be a number of possible spoilers in the mix still.
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The longevity of this forecast mild spell looks impressive in its own right as much as I hate it during mid Feb. Those southerly winds are from such a long fetch. Next week’s resurgent high pressure looks like it could be even warmer. I sit here looking at these charts in astonishment. This has been one of the most disappointing winters in a very long time. The CET will be modified a bit if we can retain the coldish nights but even so could be approaching records if the warmth resumes next week. How many instances do we see a flip from warm to cold in the output? It always feels like it happens the other way around..
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44 minutes ago, TEITS said:
Depends on what you are seeking from a cold spell.
Chances of powdery snow, ice days, many days of lying snow is becoming increasingly unlikely, although remains possible to early March. However a snow event which may slowly thaw the next day is possible for the next 6 weeks.
After such a dreadful winter I would be happy with the latter.
Agreed! A couple of cm’s would be sufficient for me. I’ve barely seen a flake. These charts are the polar opposite to what you want to see in Feb if you like cold. What is noticeable about this winter is the persistence of a pattern once it’s established. And that’s all I can see from the output at the moment. Another benign and mild spell and possibly exceptional. I never expected to see that this winter. I have only seen a flirtation with deep cold within the model output. The favourable MJO 8 signal is not yet gaining traction.
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6 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:
Bearing in mind that last March was the snowiest of any month (27cms) at my location since the amazing December of 2010 I shall not be throwing in the towel anytime soon in the hunt for cold and snow.
Didn't,t last winter teach anyone anything?
Yes, it shows that March can still deliver but the synoptics have to be exceptional. What we saw last year was a rareity.
This winter has been strange and seems to have had most forecasters perplexed given the background signals in place.
It’s easy to knee jerk into a winter is over post but the reality is it is nearly over and for many it hasn’t delivered. We’re likely to lose the best part of Feb by the looks of it to a benign high pressure with an early taste of spring. Perhaps we’ll get lucky with a cold spell at the end but I’m no longer confident even if the MJO is looking favourable.
Other factors seem to be overriding/interacting this year to confound expected Synoptics.
its been a disappointing and a boring winter from my back yard.
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Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Excellent post as always and thank you for taking the time to write your thoughts and thinking. I guess the MO think that the risk is still present for disruptive snow this week but I agree completely, the situation is marginal for many unless you are in Scotland, the far north of England or at elevation. In my location, I’m now not expecting anything other than perhaps a snowflake if I’m lucky. The block just hasn’t been able to hold sufficiently to get the deep cold entrenched and so we end up in that messy mix of transient snow if we are lucky as Atlantic fronts try and make inroads (which often don’t make it over to me in north Norfolk). No doubt a few surprises will crop up and I hope many will get lucky.