Stephen W

After the weekend's windy/wet spell, high pressure settling around the UK seems the most likely scenario and has been pretty consistent now. It could be very mild depending how far south/east that ends up. Definitely no chance of it ridging north in the short term. Models seem to be playing around with some retrogression towards Greenland in FI but I have no confidence given the pattern so far this winter. It feels as if we're just feeding on the scraps. As far as the SSW impact, i guess if you live in the US, you'd say it was massive. Here, had you not known there was a SSW, perhaps we'd never have noticed.. That's just my pure layman's assessment..Meanwhile, i've struggled to see a snowflake, let alone any lying snow and the chances of this winter passing without a decent snowfall in my locale seems to be increasing as we march on through Feb. Still time I know, but signs are weak at present.

I hardly post in this forum. I've been sitting in the wings just reading all the posts and waiting and watching. I have to admit I'm at the point of model/snow fatigue now. The background signs have been so promising and whilst this week has delivered for some/many, overall it's felt disappointing here in my location. Being right on the coast means marginal events are just no good. Add to that, being on the extremity of any approaching sliders from the west, means they just don't get to us or if they do, have very little left on them. We need a potent northerly/easterly to really deliver here. I've been waiting for the output to show such and despite the background signs emerging from time to time within the output, it just fails to materialise. A little bit of interest was regained this morning but this evening, that has diminished. I'm not sure whether February will deliver enough here for anything notable. Patterns seem persistent. We had the persistent High at Christmas/New Year and now quite a persistent trough scenario. At least it has turned cold and more like winter so I'm thankful of that but I seem to be looking at the action to the north, south, east and west both near and far whilst on my doorstep it's just feels like a bit of a damp squid. Clearly the impacts of the SSW are now majorly affecting some areas of the planet (especially the US!) and we have benefited to some extent but nothing of note really. Looks like there may be a pattern change emerging, but to anything substantive in terms of cold, I'm not at all convinced.

That's really interesting and says it all. Marginality was definitely the case last night. I think it also shows the difference being inland makes too, especially around the coast of East Anglia. I'm on the North Norfolk coast and we had no lying snow whilst 10 miles inland had a light covering (and I mean light!).

From my untrained eye, there does not seem to be much evidence of a displaced SPV appearing within the exetended modelling at the moment. If anything, it seems pretty much in situ with lots of energy being expelled at higher latitudes. The Azores high seems very prevalent, waiting in the wings to throw up a warm ridge and only occasionally pulling back to allow a short sharp burst from the NW. The ECM has a familiar MLB setting up over Europe at the far reaches but there is too much energy north to allow any higher level blocking. This MLB serves to discharge any potential cold south with most of the UK kept on the warm side with a sw fetch. At least there is some movement after this weekend to something different from mid next week. It's still February and I'd like to be in winter. Spring can wait til March..

But surely there are other factors in addition to MJO which are impacting and perhaps overriding the MJO signal. There must be as far as ECMWF is concerned.

Hi Steve, Always enjoy reading your analysis. Surely though ECMWF is picking up on something so can't be completely discounted? I thought ECMWF was better for modelling of scandi heights? It has more energy in the northern arm of the jet which results in the high sinking. It's out of synch with other models yes but until they all come on board, it must be taken seriously? We've all been here before so we surely do need to see the ECMWF align before we get too excited at 144 and beyond..?

I'm no expert but in the the start thread, I've read that the ECMWF was predicting a fairly swift recovery of the strat polar vortex. Isn't this what it shows this morning with a stronger northern arm of the jet present in the latter stages of the run?

So are we seeing the modelling of a displaced vortex (as a result of stratospheric warming) over eastern Canada which is fuelling the jet and leading to the increase in Atlantic zonality?

Mmm...I'm not liking the shift in the GFS ensembles this morning after 144. Whilst the ECM eps still show a cold cluster, they've been known to flip on mass. UKMO at 144 is also picking up on something with that low out to the west and doesn't look as good. I'd be very surprised to see the easterly develop after the initial cold shot. GFS has a lot of energy in the northern arm of the jet which results in a MLB again which could give us mild sw's or a cool continental feed depending where it settles. That seems to be the form horse this winter but hoping for something different and more interesting of course to verify. Just have to hope the intensity of cold from this initial shot at the end of the week remains to give a taste of winter for some.

I find following the long range forecasts produced on here interesting and informative. I think they've been clear that this is an atypical year in terms of how the atmosphere is responding to various drivers. What I would find useful is to have more of a running commentary from them when things change and why. I understand that this is what they will be endeavouring to do as the season progresses so I look forward to that. To my untrained eye, there is a bit of a kick to the atmosphere going on at the moment. The atlantic looks more active and things have had a bit of a shunt. Deep cold seems to be retreating east and plunging through the US. How long and how established this pattern becomes is the big question for the month. We've already had a front loaded winter compared to last year. It happened in November! Disappointing that we're looking to lose the signals that were present a few days ago but we have to wait and see how December now pans out. ps - and GP has just provided that explanation which I find so helpful and informative!

Will punt for around 5.5C - 5.8C assuming temps of around 5 min and 9 max til end of month with one or two days with max above 10C. So around 1.5C above norm here. Not scientific but there you go..

Brilliant post GP - i hope your analysis comes to fruition and I shall be following the progress of this with much interest. Glad to see your enthusiasm back over the last week! If you could conjure up a slightly colder source for those of us in the E/NE that would be great - we've had little in the way of snow during the past two cold snaps!

I share your frustration and I think it has been quite common in the East/North East. I am in the north of Norfolk and have missed out so far with both cold spells. Yesterday we had light to moderate snow but it didn't settle, despite a very cold night. Today we have an E/SE wind, now quite strong and because of the North Sea warmth temps of 3.8C and drizzly rain. Looking at the radar, we're not in line for the heavier burst which seems to be giving snow. However, Lincoln does look better placed to receive this - you just have to keep an eye on the radar and maybe tonight you'll strike lucky. It does make me wonder whether the North Sea is just going to be too warm to produce the goods in this part of the world this year. We would need the source to be especially cold I think for my proximity to the coast to benefit. Up til this year I lived in London but came back to Norfolk at weekends. I was always frustrated that when I was in London it used to snow up in Norfolk and now i'm in Norfolk, London has had two decent snowfalls all in one winter! So you're not alone! Good luck for this evening!

I'm in North Norfolk and it has been the same - despite a very cold night last night and a frost lasting into the morning, when the snow fell it just didn't stick apart from a few localised places which even now are melting. Also turning to rain - very disappointing here especially when the likes of London have had a good dumping (which has been rare the past years when I lived there). We also did badly during the cold snap at the end of Jan. Will be surprised if I see lying snow here this year but you never know.

Hi Nick Where are you looking - i can't get the charts on wetterzentrale but I have looked at the Metociel chart and yes I can see the potential with height rises to the north east. I assume that's what you mean? Leading to an easterly blast? Suppose with FI being so short term at the moment - it's difficult to get excited about potentially dream charts in deep FI - sorry if that sounds a bit negative. Love to see something evolve from this though. Also depends on how strong the atlantic fires up over the next week?

Thanks Nick - appreciate the links which confirm the uncertainty and difficulties which I'm sure all the models are experiencing. I think the motto for this week has to be to take and hopefully enjoy each day as it comes! And as you say, to take anything beyond T72 with model uncertainty in mind.

Hi Nick - what's your view on this? There's a lot of excitement on here tonight but the ECM is just really not having any of it. I'm holding back becuase of this..

Agreed! So is it right or wrong?...It seems very determined not to fall in line which is of concern despite the comments re: its accuracy recently...would allow myself more excitement over the week if it was playing ball..Hope you're enjoying the cold and snow in Iceland!

John - thanks for continuing with the blog - I enjoy reading the detail behind the charts and your assessment of the risks and possible rewards!

Dear WIB - thanks for taking the time to post these and present your views in an unbiased way. An interesting week coming up - I prefer this model thread since it gives the opportunity to learn a lot more. As you say, the jet seems the likely winner but with cold not too far away.

January data for Edgefield, North Norfolk: Average max = 9.0C, 2.4C above average Average min = 4.4, 2.6C above average Average temp = 6.7C, 2.5C above average Warmest day = 13.1C Coldest day = 4.0C Warmest night = 8.9C Coldest night = -1.7C Days of falling snow = 1 Days of lying snow = 0 Quite amazing warmth!