eddie

A howling Autumn gale would be my favorite type of weather. That feeling of the wind and rain on my face just makes me feel alive. You can probably guess that I am finding the weather a bit dull at the moment. I was lucky enough to see some pretty great winters during the 80s (living 1100 feet above sea level in the Pennines helped) and I would love to see that much snow again but perhaps just a two week period over Christmas when I don't have to get to work. Something like 1947 or 1963 would be interesting but I bet the novelty would soon wear off when the supermarkets started to run out of food. I also don't like anything too hot. If you could take the weather from April 2007 and add 2C to the CET then that would be my perfect summer.

It will end up somewhere around that mark depending upon where October lands. That's since 1900 too. It will rank lower over the entire CET series.

You are forgetting about the years prior 1993 that, although warmer than 1993, were colder than the current Jul-Oct period.

Although we are heading for the coolest July-October period since 1993 and 1993 was the 6th coolest period since 1900, that won't make it the 7th coldest such period since 1900. It will actually be the 56th coldest Jul-Oct period since 1900 if October ends at 11C.

Hmm yes I was perhaps being a bit optimistic/pessimistic there. Hadley have now updated and yesterday was quite a bit colder than I expected at 7.8C. Their mean is now 11.1C

06z giving a much warmer end to the month than previously predicted. Perhaps 11.5 is not out of the question.

It was looking very warm but the 06z has Sunday evening looking cooler. Perhaps we will record mins of 9-10 and maxes around 16.

If the 06z GFS run verifies then the warm air being drawn up from the south west on Saturday and Sunday will be what stops us from going below 11C. Minima of around 13-14C and maxima of up to 15-16C could easily add 0.3-0.4C to the CET total when compared to the 8C days we have been experiencing this week. Temperatures look to return to average after that with the potentially odd situation where the CET maximum for Monday could be recorded at 0.01am.

Hi NEB, I already posted this data earlier in the thread. Hope this helps.. Link...

Hadley now 11.8C. Another drop of 0.2C.

Hadley now at 12.0C, down another 0.2C since yesterday.

We would need the period from today until the end of the month to average 7.4C to get Hadley below the 1971-00 average(10.4C) and 7.9C to get below the 1961-90 average(10.6C). If we average 6.6C then I will win this month. Hurrah! Based on a quick glance at the last few GFS runs and some guessing here is my take on things: Probability of getting to 10.0C and me winning - <1% Probability of getting below 10.4C - 10% Probability of getting below 10.6C - 25% I think we will probably end up around 11C.

Less than 8C for the 2nd half of October has been recorded 19 times since 1900 but, and it's a big but, only 2 times in cases where the first half of the month has been warmer than 12.5C (1916 and 1920). Since 1900 we have never got below 10.4C from a first half CET > 12.5C.

I already believe we have caused the some of the warming we have seen and also that the earth will continue to warm as a result of our actions. Sorry if this isn't the sort of reply you were after GW but I do think this was a good idea for a thread! Perhaps there aren't that many people that believe humans have no involvment at all in global warming? The argument seems to have moved on to the degree of warming caused by us and how much warmer it will get.

Thanks. Always good to learn something new every day.

Slightly off topic sorry, but does anybody know what the resolution of the Vostok ice core data is? Also, if you had a particularly warm number of years and some of the ice melted would that mean that you could loose a chunk of 'history' since only years in which ice accumulates show in the record? I am sure the scientists have taken account of this I would just be interested to know how and if this has happened.

Could you please clarify what you mean by this please?

Yes the last ten years is very much the time we inhabitand yes we are on an upward trend but you of all people shouldn't need reminding that the 10 year mean is not always going to go upwards, even with AGW there are still going to be peaks and troughs due the underlying variability of our climate. For example, look at the 10 rolling mean for July. It just dropped 0.2C. The August one just dropped 0.3C! Does this mean that next year your prediction for August will be lower than this year? I will agree that my data was rather cherry picked to suit my point but I think yours could be too.

In order to get below 10.5C the 6 month anomaly from August to December, with respect to the 1971-00 baseline, would need to be below 0.33C Here are the 6 month periods in the last 20 years which satisfy this requirement: I can't see anything unprecedented being required.

I still don't think we should write of a final CET below 10.5C just yet. It certainly wouldn't require any kind of record breaking cold.

I counted 32 instances since 1772 where the first half of October was colder than the second half and 7 instances where the first half was equal to the second half. Using those stats you would expect 14 out of every 100 Octobers to have a warmer 2nd Half. Fairly unusual but I wouldn't go so far to say exceptionally rare.

18z GFS looking quite warm for October. I wouldn't be suprised if we are 1.5C above average by the 15th if this run come off.

Doh, I should probably stop posting on Net Weather when I have flu. I think I need some more drugs..

You have to remeber that in some public schools in America they don't even want to teach the theory of evolution, prefering to say that man was created directly by God and dinosaur bones were put their just to test us. It's hardly suprising that somebody in America objected to Al Gore's film. Damn those scientists and their pesky evidence.

I thought it was because Hadley didn't used to update daily?