eddie

At 8.4C, Yesterday was the coldest September day since Sep 30th 1988.

Hadley have updated and they have yesterday at 9.5C which means the Hadley CET so far is 14.5C. -fixed for the pedants. I am aware we use Manley for the competition.

Hadley have updated and they have yesterday at 9.5C which means the CET so far is 14.5C.

BBC News 24 forecast just said there was a chance of records being broken in Northern Ireland but just said it would be very cold in Scotland. Some 1C minima possible in parts of the CET zone too.

10.0C for me please.

Surely that is the most important question? If that picture is a good representation of what happens every year around every part of the coast and it doesn't match what the models predict then you could use it to question the accuracy of the models. If that picuture is not a good representation of the norm then you can't use it to draw any conclusions about the models.

Even 8.0C would be in the top 2% of coldest September days and something we haven't had since 1988. I think I might be starting to get excited about this winter already.

7.0C would be the 27th coldest September day since 1772 (Out of 7072!) and the coldest September day since 1974. That would be quite remarkable.

To the 21st Hadley was at 14.87 (rounded up to 14.9). They have yesterday's average temperature at 14.1C which dropped us down to 14.83 (rounded down to 14.8 ).

It's hard to say if this is normal or not without looking at the same image from previous years.

5 years out of the CET series since 1772 have been warmer than 14.6C by the 22nd and finshed below average including 1987 which was 14.8C by the 22nd and finished at 13.6C. I personally think we will finish just a touch above 14C although I would dearly love to see another below average month.

It would certainly take something special to get us above 11C now. Still possible that we could beat 2006 but even that is starting to look unlikely.

Some more stats for WiB. If we do get to 14.5C by the 20th that would increase the chance of returning a below average month compared to the analysis based on being 15.2C by the 15th. I really can't see us reaching 14.5C by the 20th though. Year/ @20th/ Final Cet 1932/ 14.5/ 12.9 1899/ 14.8/ 13.2 1872/ 14.9/ 13.2 1844/ 14.8/ 13.3 1914/ 14.8/ 13.3 1943/ 14.8/ 13.3 1979/ 14.6/ 13.5 1987/ 14.6/ 13.6 1942/ 14.9/ 13.6 1867/ 14.6/ 13.6 1785/ 15.1/ 13.6 1811/ 14.9/ 13.7 1824/ 15.4/ 13.7 1984/ 14.6/ 13.7

Interestingly enough, if you look at second half September CETs in isolation, anything colder than the 98th coldest second half September CET since 1772 would take us below 13.7C. (I hope that makes sense. It did in my head!)

Scroll up!

I was just looking at the Hadley figure which is currently 15.5C. If you assume we are at 15.2C then that means this September is the 55th to reach 15.2C or above by the 15th. Here are the Septembers that ended up at 13.7C or below after reaching 15.2C by the 15th..

1772 is the first year in the CET series that daily averages are available. Since 1772 there have been 38 Septembers that had a CET > 15.5C by the 15th (well 39 now!). Of those 38, only 5 recorded a final CET of 13.7C or below by the end of the month. I would be very suprised if we end up below average now but it's certainly not impossible.

I find it truly amazing that we have one hemisphere recording the lowest sea ice extent ever recorded and the other recording the maximum! What on earth is going on!? I wonder if there is something strange happening with ocean currents? Somebody in the 'I need to scream' thead linked a blog where I found this link which talks about a cyclical transfer of heat between the two hemispheres. Atlantic Ocean heat piracy and the bipolar climate see-saw...

I would pretty much agree with this. Looking at the models I can't see any day in the next week that is going to come in much above the current CET figure and Saturday and Tuesday could make quite a dent with some low minima. I think it's unlikely that my 13.3C guess is going to be realised after the warm start to the month but I still don't think sub 14C is out of the question.

There you go...

This graphs shows how the September CET is looking according to Hadley and I have thrown in 1919 for good measure...

I am guessing a Ferrari and a private jet would also get me a lot of attention from the opposite sex but since I can't afford either of those I guess some energy saving lightbulbs and a recyling bin is the second best option Joking aside, I do think your method of 'selling' a greener lifestyle has some merit. Tackling climate change is currently presented as series of sacrifices that we all need to make: Drive less, fly less, consume less, turn the heating down, use less water etc. It's no wonder that a lot of the public are turned off by this. The whole climate change thing needs to be presented as an oportunity to make peoples' lives better. It needs to be something that people want to be part of. Exciting new green technology, cleaner cities, cleaner air, houses that cost virtually nothing to run, saving money etc. People also hate to be told that the way they conduct their life is bad. You probably can't pick a better way of stopping somebody listening to you than trying to make them feel guilty for driving a big 4x4 or having a foreign holiday. I'm not sure what the solution to this particular problem is though.

I have been looking back at the CET record for Septembers which follow a below average July and August (71-00 average). It seems only around one third of Septembers that follow a below average July and August are above average. On that basis I am going for 13.3C

At this stage, and taking the GFS into consideration, I would estimate there is a 50% chance for the CET to end up below the 71-00 average(16.2C) and 30% chance for it to end up below the 61-90 average(15.8C). I reckon my 16.4C guess won't be so far off.

I just tried to read the linked papers and it seems I would have to join the AGU in order to see them (i.e. pay them money :huh: ). Is that web site the only place those papers can be read?