Dangerous55019
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Posts posted by Dangerous55019
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2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
Come Tuesday and Wednesday, a frontal system may add some forcing to aid the breaking of an inversion. It doesn't look like a classic end to the heat though, you'll be lucky (or unlucky) to catch anything- it all looks very isolated.
This is also my concern as well @Mapantz ... But at the moment I'm keeping the faith
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OMG!!!!
I've just had a look at the 06z run, and this is whats showing now for Wednesday
*Memo to self: Don't get too excited... Remeber the 19th of July last year... Incredible cape and LI figures for my area, but the cap held, and all that was to be had was a poxy clap of thunder*-
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On 17/06/2017 at 11:15, Chris.R said:
You were very lucky, you got the very last sferic of the elevated MCS, it was just a few spots of rain by the time it reached me. As a rule What ever you have, I usually get next.
Hiya @Chris.R
If the dog hadn't have wanted out, I'd have missed it.
Here's hoping for much better this time for everyone-
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23 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
A clap of thunder??? Where?!
It was just before 06.00 on that Saturday at the end of May @Flash bang flash bang etc
It was here in North east Wales. -
21 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:
Now this is one hell of a chart! Very interesting for next Friday, fingers crossed we keep this up throughout the week
Cheers for posting this @TJS1998Tom, and my thoughts exactly
Almost a week ago I posted up some very juicy looking charts that I cherry picked. Ever since then I've been watching these charts wax and waning, but the one thing that struck me was how consistent they were in going for a time round about that date... Give or take a day or so either way.
I also said 'that at two weeks away, what could possibly go wrong?'... Well here we are one week on and the charts seem to be getting even more juicy.
Still an awful lot of water to go under the bridge as they say, but dare I say that we could be on the cusp of quite a memorable week for a lot of people?
Finger crossed for everyone who wants some storm action this coming week
*Memo to Self: Mustn't get too carried away, as I'm still receiving counselling for the last bout of heat when all we had was one poxy clap of thunder.* -
1 minute ago, Boro Snow said:
Are we still expecting some storms to kick off here in the North East tonight
I think we're brewing them up for you around here @Boro Snow
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Today we have had one of the most convective and promising looking skies that I've seen for a long time
Sadly I know that it's highly unlikely to go bang, but at long last, showing signs in the right direction.
And here is the current sky.
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Being as this year has been very quiet for me storms wise (only a hand full of one flash one bang storms since January plus one reasonable storm in May around the River Severn), I have to confess that I'm starting to feel really quite storm starved, so I've just been having a look at what the good ole GFS is forecasting, and I came across these gems.
And at two weeks away, what could possible go wrong between now and then?
*prays to the weather gods*-
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20 hours ago, stainesbloke said:
This is good
One word... WOW!!
Cheers for sharing that @stainesbloke-
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Just looked up from the barbecue, and it looks like we've got some exceptionally weak convectivity going on around here this evening.
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When I started this thread back in January, I don't think I could have imagined how calm, warm, settled and dry spring 2017 would actually turn out to be.
Lets see what's in store for summer 2017 shall we? -
Normally if we're going to get a storm we get some Altocumulus Castellanus preceding the main event.
I've just brought the dog out and seen this.
This must surely be the weakest and most disorganised formation I've ever seen!!
Ahh well, fingers crossed.
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Sadly for me this is turning into another bust.
All we've got is a very, very strong and gusty wind.
Everything is all kicking off to the North and East of me over the Pennines.
But good luck to everyone else who's still in with a chance today.
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although for some reason I can't upload the images.
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Well after this mornings poxy rumble of thunder, I'm currently sat outside enjoying a spot of lite lunch with a friend, and I've just looked up to see some really promising cloudscapes.
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Just woken up to a distant rumble of thunder.
Gone are the azure blue skies... The sky looks very dark slate grey and promising.
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I see that something is already happening to the north west of Ireland.
Like wise northern Spain and over the Pyrenees also currently look s quite juicy as well
https://www.lightningmaps.org/?lang=en#y=54.5084;x=-5.1094;z=4;t=3;m=sat;r=0;s=0;o=0;b=0.00;n=0;d=2;dl=2;dc=0;-
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This time last week I was more or less stood in the river Severn at Arley (don't ask - but photos can be proved upon request. Lol) and I can say that I noticed last Friday's storm breaking around me, and quite enjoyable it was too especially when it hit
Anyway... At the moment here in North East Wales we've got azure blue skies but with a strong southerly breeze, which is just taking the edge off the temperatures.
As others have said this is now gonna come down to nowcasting and radar watching.
Again this looks for me like it could go either way... Very much a 50/50 event.
I'm hoping, but also not getting my hopes up just incase, as I remember the 19th of July last year all too well... The cape and LI figures for my area wee just incredible, and all we had was just one poxy clap of thunder the following morning.
But good luck to everyone out there with this thundery breakdown, and I hope it produces the goods for (if sadly not all of us) at least some of us
I'll report back if and hopefully when something changes around here. -
Although a sunny and blustery evening here in North East Wales, looking over towards the Pennines...
Although unlikely to go bang this evening, it's still a step in the right direction.
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... Bit too far away (and too long ago) if I'm being honest.
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Could have sworn I've just heard distant thunder coming from the Wrexham area.
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Although I'm not in an area that's at a (low) risk of storms today, it's nice to see such a frothy sky
Good luck to everyone who's in one of the areas highlighted for some convective action today.
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Nice to see the convective cloudscapes today, far more impressive than Thursday/Fridays so called thundery breakdown.
Lets hope something goes bang this week for us all.
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For the past two hours now it's been trying to rain... Trying being the operative word. It's not even enough to wet the ground or dampen the dust down.
Personally I'm ready to throw the towel in on this so called thundery breakdown.
Thats not to say that others won't get anything, and I hope you do, but for me, this whole thing has been a complete bust
... Ahh well... Let's hope for a better thundery breakdown for everyone soon
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Convective / Storm Discussion Thread - 31st May 2017 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Dangerous55019
A random chart at the bottom of my post
HOLY COW!!!
Sorry I've just been looking at the 00z run... I've regained control of my senses now... I think. Lol
Right ... Where to start?
Today is a good a point as any...
The first two images show todays potential... And I have to say that it DOES look quite promising.
The next two images show tomorrows potential...
And then we move on to Wednesday...
Now the question is how much capping is going to take place? As despite these quite frankly astonishing looking charts this could end up being a huge bust for many.
But where the cap does break... Well...
As always, good luck to everyone on this, stay safe folks, and lets hope that this IS the start of the big beasts for this this summer
And don't ask me why this chart for today has appeared down here. Lol
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