Timbo
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Posts posted by Timbo
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18 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:
What do we think are the chances of a warning for E/A for tomorrow - for the potential for snow as the cold undercuts the low whilst it pivots and exits?
i think the warning will be issued this evening, i think there may some surprises for East Anglia tomorrow, it is only 2 degrees near lowestoft at the minute and the rain has a lot of sleet mixed in.
as the low pull away there will be a good dig in of very cold air, expect to see snow to sea level from about 5am onwards, lasting till around early afternoon.
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the latest video met office said at the end, " turning much colder next week" more on this in the 10 day forecast later !!
wonder if they are going against there own model?, as the ukmo did not look cold .
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Do we think the GFS will strengthen the Easterly or drop the idea on the 06z
i still have a gut feeling that we are about to be hit with a major Beast from the East, on par with 2018 .
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why are so many people confident that the GFS is wrong, this model was slated when it was going for +40 in the summer, it got that very correct, it was also slated on the breakdown of the early Dec cold spell,it also saw this happening before the other models.
How many times have we had all models in agreement on a potent cold spell to have it removed from our grasp.
I still think that the GFS has this modelled correctly and this time next week it will be the ukmo & ecmf that everyone is calling cannon fodder.
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The other day myself and the wife were discussing how hot it would be today, she said that it would reach 44 and i laughed at her, i guessed at 42.6. i think im in with a good chance of being right, but looking how temps are still climbing, the wife might prove me wrong??
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we need to watching closely to were the sting jet forms, if this happens winds can increase to easily 100mph gusts, currently looking like forming in a line from Midlands down through East Anglia, from middle of the day through the afternoon,
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Lets have a friendly competition to were we think the strongest gust will happen tomorrow, ill start with 100mph around North Norfolk
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4 minutes ago, snowspotter said:
Blimey there is a lot of hyberbole on here about this storm . There is absolutely zero chance of anything even remotely like the 1987 storm down here . I think people are getting a bit ahead of themselves like when blizzards are predicted and paralysing snow and we end up with1cm .
You my have egg on your face by the end of tomorrow making statements like that.....
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1 minute ago, Marcus_surfer said:
Wasn't there evidence of tornadoes embedded into the 87 storm?
In the 87 storm, there was a powerful sting jet and also numerous tornados, i would not be surprised if some tornados form across the Midlands to East Anglia tomorrow
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Just now, Dbarb said:
I think a possible red warning could be issued for parts of home counties and East Anglia later today
Yes i fully agree with you, now looking like a sting jet is coming into play, costal regions of East Anglia could well record the highest gusts of this storm, as mention earlier could be in excess on 100mph along the coast.
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On our local look east weather this morning, she emphasised that there could be gusts upto 80mph inland, and then that the winds could ramp up even more as the system exits into the north sea, i think they are now picking up on a strong sting jet coming into play, this could push the gusts the wrong side of 100mph!!!!, here come 87 all over again, an back then the devastation was of the scale.
Keep save everyone tomorrow.
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Just now, Liam Burge said:
I have a feeling (and this is just speculation right now) that the red warning will be somewhere around the Bristol channel. If I'm not mistaken that is where models are showing the most intense wind gusts to be.
I think the red warning area will a lot larger, i also think East Anglia will be in the red warning, looks like winds intensify as it starts to exit into the North sea
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What would happen if we get a sting jet into the mix as it develops, how much could this increase the gusts to?
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Has anyone got archive chars for how it looked for the great 87 storm for comparison to Fridays predictions, is it taking the same path?
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2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:
Not going to happen...Oct 87 was a once in a century occurrence (though could happen for this century). I woke up at 6am on the 16th and apart from nearly being decapitated by a flying slate from next doors barn the wind took my breath away never mind me being able to hardly stand up it was that intense. It will be downgraded or as per usual the low will move on a more northerly track.
I think you may be wrong on this system, if any thing it looks like it will be moving on a more Southerly track.
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5 minutes ago, minus10 said:
Gfs 6z still predicting upto 90 mph on Friday in the south east
Got that horrible feeling that here in East Anglia, we will experience similar wind gusts and storm damage as seen in the great 87 storm, Friday now shaping up to possible be a major / severely damaging event, also if enough cold air gets pulled into the circulation there is potential for severe blizzards!!!!!!!
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3 minutes ago, Timbo said:
We had a fantastic storm just after 8pm at Southwold yesterday evening, some of the best fork lightning and very deep intense thunder i have witnessed for many years.
it was a mix of large hail, very large raindrops and very wet snowflakes when the core passed over, don't know if this can be classed as thunder snow !!!
can someone post the radar returns for that time yesterday, must have been a very intense cell when it passed over
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We had a fantastic storm just after 8pm at Southwold yesterday evening, some of the best fork lightning and very deep intense thunder i have witnessed for many years.
it was a mix of large hail, very large raindrops and very wet snowflakes when the core passed over, don't know if this can be classed as thunder snow !!!
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Heavy snow in Lowestoft, near blizzard conditions and drifting along the ground, a mix of snow and fluffy hail, wind very, very gusty when the squall came through, lasting about 30 mins, left a dusting on the ground and cars.
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1 minute ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:
Wow! Thanks for sharing - The extremes in this country are quite something, given how small an island we are! Still not seen one proper flake of snow this winter...
Yes was Quiet amazing, it snowed every day from Sunday till Friday, we still have drifts 5ft plus on the back roads.
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Hopefully looking at the way the models are shaping up, we could be seeing more scenes like this, this was last weekend just down the road from me at Southwold.
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Just look at all the very deep cold to our north east, if we can get a good ridge up to our North West we will be looking at March 2018 all over again.
bring it on and lets finish this winter in style
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1 minute ago, PUTIN said:
Which road is that Timbo - surely not the main Southwold Road coming from Wrentham? Covehithe route?
Yep the main road from Wrentham to Southwold, was impassable till Monday afternoon, some of the Drifts must be over 6ft tall.
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Here is a video of our road to Southwold on Monday.
The car you see stuck in the drift, is still in the middle of the drift this morning
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Model Output Discussion - Snow Watch limited edition
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
just had very heavy hail and wet snow at Lowestoft,
the temperature has been going down all day, think the low has moved further South than forecast, look how much wintery precipitation there is on the radar for the Northen half of East Anglia