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Zenarcher

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  1. Zenarcher
    At the [url="http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4452-very-early-first-look-at-winter-20122013/"]start of August[/url] I posted a blog entry giving a forecast for the winter ahead now 30 days later it's time for an update.

    [b]Rainfall Averages,[/b]

    [b]October:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] Still looking average for the UK but Southern Scotland below average.[/font][/color]
    [b]November:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] Below average for most of Ireland, Scotland and Northern England, elsewhere average.[/font][/color]
    [b]December:[/b] Below average for Southern Scotland and South Eastern England, elsewhere average.
    [b]January:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] Below average for most of the UK, mainly inland area's but average for the coasts.[/font][/color]
    [color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][b]February: [/b]Average for most but below for Southern England and Northern Ireland.[/font][/color]

    [color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][b]Changes in the last month: [/b]The CFS has changed from what looked like to be mainly average rainfall to below average for most of the winter.[/font][/color]

    [b]Temperatures[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] still looking average for most of the winter but it looks like below average for South Eastern England during January and February.[/font][/color]

    [b]Changes in the last month:[/b] Not much still saying average for most of the winter, the only change is colder temperatures for the South East.

    [b]Current Long Range Outlook Based On CFS,[/b]

    [b]October:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] First 2 weeks high pressure mainly in charge. Final 2 weeks more unsettled with some short cold spells from the North.[/font][/color]

    [color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif][b]November:[/b] The entire month is completely dominated by high pressure so a very settled and dry month.[/font][/color]

    [b]December:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] Another month completely dominated by high pressure but this time a Easterly is more likely so cold weather for the East and South.[/font][/color]

    [b]January:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] This is now the third month running with high pressure still in charge although this time cold weather is less likely more mild temperatures. Another settled month.[/font][/color]

    [b]February:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] In the first week we get a short lived Easterly giving us cold weather then for the rest of the month it turns even colder when a Northerly takes charge.[/font][/color]

    [b]March:[/b][color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif] During the first 2 weeks we start off with a strong Easterly then it turns into another Northerly. For the rest of March high pressure takes charge again and turns into a very short lived Northerly to finish it all off.[/font][/color]

    [color=#282828][font=helvetica, arial, sans-serif]Some big changes in the forecast for this winter the CFS has gone from a winter similar to last year to now a much colder, drier and settled one. I will update this again at the end of September.[/font][/color]
  2. Zenarcher
    [center][b]The Biggest Weather Events Through The Winter And How They Were Forecast[/b][/center]

    During the winter of 2011 into early 2012 we had some very active Atlantic storms this was due to a strong jet steam. The winter of 2011 and 2012 will not be remembered as a cold and snowy one but we did get some cold weather near the end.

    [b]11[sup]th[/sup] September 'Hurricane Katia'[/b]

    [center][attachment=138689:katia.jpg][/center]

    The first low pressure system headed towards the British Isles much earlier than usual. I remember the GFS picked it up in FI but didn't know where the storm was going to go. The media caught onto it early and hyped it up with headlines like 'Hurricane to hit Britiain' etc. On September 9th the Met Office issued warnings for parts of the UK for strong winds. The highest wind speed recorded on low land was 81mph and on high ground 98mph. The storm caused damage across the UK with damage estimated to be around £100 million.

    [center][b]25th November '[color=#000000][font=sans-serif][b][background=rgb(249, 249, 249)]Cyclone Xaver'[/background][/b][/font][/color][/b][/center]

    [center][attachment=138690:xavier.png][/center]

    Although the storm did not directly hit the UK it did bring very strong winds, heavy rain and snow to Scotland. The Faroe Islands which are situated to the very far North of the UK saw the brunt of this storm with wind speeds of 120mph recorded and the pressure reached 944mb. It caused a large amount of damage there even in a place that is used to Atlantic storms. The storm was well forecast by the computer models which allowed plenty of time for warnings.

    [center][b]8th December 'Hurricane Bawbag'[/b][/center]

    [center][attachment=138691:bawbag.png][/center]

    This is a storm where computer models struggled on. At first just a few days before it was due to hit Scotland nothing was picked up. The computer models eventually got the hang of things about 2 days before. The direct impact area was still unclear even the night before it struck. The official name of the storm was Friedhelm but people in Scotland called it 'Hurricane Bawbag'. This was the first proper serious storm to hit the UK so far. At the Cairngorm mountains the highest gust recorded was 165mph. It reached a low of 956mb and caused damage across Scotland. Bridges were shut, so were schools and workplaces.

    The storm didn't just bring bad weather to Scotland, a 90mph gust was recorded in Ireland, and gusts between 70 to 80mph were reported in England and Wales.

    Over 70 thousand people in Scotland were left without power for two days.

    [center][b]11th December 'A serious storm appeared on the computer models but later the ECM came to the rescue'[/b][/center]

    [center][attachment=138692:ukmo11.png][/center]
    [center][size=2]The UKMO model showed a 940mb storm.[/size][/center]

    For a few days every weather model had been showing a severe storm hitting mainly Ireland, England and Wales. It caused a lot of concern for the Met Office and the members on Net Weather. On the 11th of December the ECM done its evening run which was watched by 100's it made the storm nearly vanish, it caused a big surprised many thought it was a fluke, later the other models agreed with the ECM, I believe it's one of the ECM's finest moments.

    [center][b]13th December 'Cyclone Hergen'[/b][/center]

    [center][attachment=138693:Hergen.png][/center]

    Hergen was picked up early and well by the computer models. It reached a low of 945mb despite the low pressure it only caused wind gusts over 70mph due to the nature of the system. It did cause very large waves and icy conditions.

    [center][b]3rd January 'Cyclone Ulli'[/b][/center]

    [center][attachment=138694:ulli.png][/center]

    Another storm and the final severe one of the winter. It was picked up early by the computer models with the GFS handling it the best. On the 3rd of January very early in the morning the storm passed Northern Ireland bringing gusts over 100mph. It continued to deepen in pressure and move acorss central Scotland which is highly populated. In Edinburgh gusts over 100mph were recorded. 100's of thousands of people in Northern Ireland and Scotland were left with out power. Damage was also widespread.

    [center][b]End of January to mid February 'Easterly'[/b][/center]

    [center][attachment=138695:Easterly.png][/center]

    After a very stormy start to the winter we saw our weather pattern finally change to something better. Weather models loved to tease us and annoy us with predicted the cold weather but by the end of January to around mid February we finally saw some sort of cold weather.
  3. Zenarcher
    [size=3]Before I start bear in mind I am using the CFS model data and looking out to 6 months so things are likely to change I am just looking at early signs and what its saying at the moment.[/size]

    [b]Rainfall Averages,[/b]

    [b]October:[/b] Average for most but below average in Northern Ireland and Scotland.
    [b]November:[/b] Average.
    [b]December: [/b]Average.
    [b]January:[/b] Average.
    [b]February: [/b]Average for South and below average for North.

    [b]Temperatures[/b] looking average for the UK all through the winter but most of Europe does look to get cold weather in December.

    [b]Current Long Range Outlook Based On CFS,[/b]

    [b]October:[/b] High pressure for the first 20 days, becoming more unsettled and slightly colder in the final 11 days.

    [b]November:[/b] First 2 weeks we have high pressure over Greenland and Iceland so the UK has colder weather and unsettled in Western parts. 3rd week very strong PV over Greenland but the UK is under a massive high pressure system. Final week unsettled and stormy.

    [b]December:[/b] First 2 weeks staying unsettled and stormy but shows signs of improvement in the 3rd week with cold weather. The final goes back to being unsettled.

    [b]January:[/b] High pressure for most of the month so looking settled then in the final week things get a lot colder.

    [b]February:[/b] Stays cold for the first half but for the second half goes back to unsettled stormy weather.

    [b]March:[/b] High pressure mainly in charge with short cold spells.

    Thanks for reading that is what the CFS has to say for our winter at the moment and it will change. I will update this in a months time.
  4. Zenarcher
    [b]Introduction,[/b]

    Over the course of September and October this year I carried out a experiment to see what weather models performed the best at different time ranges from 24 hours to 144 hours.

    [b]How it works,[/b]

    Firstly I would let all the models do their 12z runs so none over them had a 12 hour advantage over another. Once they had done their 12z run I would pick a location and each model predicted its thought on it. The models then get awarded points on how close they are.

    [b]The results for forecasting 24 hours out. It was very tight most of them got the predictions correct but GME was more consistent gaining the highest average points.[/b]


    1. GME 127.
    2. ENS 119.
    3. GFS 110.
    4. ECM 107.
    5. NOGAPS 107.
    6. UKMO 106.
    7. NAE 99.
    8. GEM 94.
    9. CMC 91.
    10. JMA 80.
    11. RHMC 78.

    [b]The results for forecasting 48 hours out. The ECM always performed well and is 20 points clear of the GFS ENS.[/b]


    1. ECM 98.
    2. ENS 78.
    3. GFS 72.
    4. CMC 72.
    5. NOGAPS 66.
    5. JMA 61.
    7. UKMO 58.
    8. NAE 58.
    9. GME 56.
    10. GEM 56.
    11. RHMC 34.

    [b]The results for forecasting 72 hours out. This was another tight one with 6 weather models doing very well but overall we have a tie between ECM and GEM.[/b]


    1. ECM 46.
    2. GEM 46.
    3. CMC 44.
    4. NOGAPS 44.
    5. UKMO 44.
    6. GME 44.
    7. GFS 40.
    8. JMA 30.
    9. ENS 28.
    10. RHMC 26.

    [b]The results for forecasting 96 hours out. You may have noticed there's only 8 now because RHMC and GME don't go over 96 hours. So overall JMA done very well here despite not doing to well in the previous results.[/b]


    1. JMA 52.
    2. UKMO 42.
    3. GFS 34.
    4. NOGAPS 34.
    5. ECM 34.
    6. GEM 26.
    7. CMC 24.
    8. ENS 24.

    [b]The results for forecasting 120 hours out. I was surprised to see NOGAPS do well here but it always performed well.[/b]


    1. NOGAPS 64.
    2. GEM 45.
    3. ECM 44.
    4. ENS 42.
    5. CMC 38.
    6. JMA 36.
    7. GFS 32.
    8. UKMO 16.

    [b]And finally for forecasting 144 hours out. The GFS done well here and followed by the ECM.[/b]


    1. GFS 51.
    2. ECM 44.
    3. ENS 37.
    4. UKMO 34.
    5. NOGAPS 30.
    6. CMC 20.
    7. JMA 20.
    8. GEM 19.

    [b]So what weather models are the best? I have added up the points below and the ECM has won overall gaining the most points followed by a tie between GFS and NOGAPS. I think it may surprise people on how poorly the UKMO performed.[/b]


    1. ECM 313.
    2. GFS 293.
    3. NOGAPS 293.
    4. GFS ENS 284.
    5. CMC 251.
    6. UKMO 248.
    7. GEM 242.
    8. JMA 231.

    I hope you found this interesting and I will carry out the same experiment again at the start of 2012.
  5. Zenarcher
    [b]El Nino[/b]

    It's expected to stay in the neutral zone for the rest of this summer. But slowly dips down during autumn. It will stay around the -1 mark through the winter so not as strong as lasts winters.

    [attachment=119400:El Nino June 2011 Onwards.gif]


    [b]Rainfall[/b]

    July is looking average for rainfall amounts which is good news for those that need some.

    [attachment=119401:July Rainfall.png]


    August in Southern Scotland and Northern England may see slightly less rainfall elsewhere average.

    [attachment=119402:August Rainfall.png]


    September and October both looking similar carrying on the average rainfall but during October Northern Ireland can expect less rainfall.

    [attachment=119403:September Rainfall.png]

    [attachment=119404:October Rainfall.png]


    November average for most but Southern England and Southern Ireland can expect less rainfall.

    [attachment=119405:November Rainfall.png]


    December average for most except Southern Scotland and Northern England can expect more rainfall.

    [attachment=119406:December Rainfall.png]


    January 2012 to March 2012 it's very far away but it looks similar to December average for most except those in Southern Scotland and Northern England who will get more than average rainfall.

    [attachment=119407:JantoMar2012.png]


    Temperatures

    2 weeks ago forecasts said average temperatures from July 2011 to March 2012 and now 2 weeks later it still says the same thing. There's a lot of talk about a colder than average winter but at the moment I can't see it happening.

    That's me for now I will update this on the 22nd of July.

    Sean.
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