Zenarcher
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Posts posted by Zenarcher
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Little bit surprised as this wave is riding along on a very powerful jet streak with a steep thermal gradient over the Atlantic, obviously not in the sweet spot for rapid cyclogenesis. I wonder could the wave deepen more rapidly than the models are showing into something noteworthy with a short lead time? The potential is there.
Same here the models seemed so confident on the storm it was just the track that needed to be decided but as we saw with each run downgrades happened. I do remember the 3rd of January 2012 storm was downgraded by some of the models when it was only 48 hours away only to get a big upgrade a few hours before it hit although a sting jet happened that day something only the high res models picked up hours before it hit.
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Yes downgrade after downgrade with this one. Pretty much all of the models are not showing a storm anymore but perhaps still windy on New Years Day just not stormy. The CMA and CFS both still go for a storm hitting Scotland though.
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Has anyone got access to the latest NMM wind gust charts? I'm on my phone at work so can't check!
It's still on the 06z run from this morning but here's the gust chart for 3pm on the 1st of January,
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GFS 12z has just updated while the storm still seems to be downgraded from what it was saying a few days ago some very strong winds look to affect all of the UK and Ireland on New Years Day.
40 to 60mph gusts look to be widespread,
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A few changes in the models this morning,
The GFS still seems very keen on bringing widespread severe gale force winds to most of the country and the Northern parts seeing the worst. However the UKMO, ECM, JMA, GME, GEM and NAVGEM all don't develop much to anything at all, this may be the most likely outlook due to the huge support from a large number of models. The CFS and CMA show the most extreme solutions this morning and keep a deep low pressure system passing either near or over Scotland bringing storm force winds.
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ECM 12z run didn't make much of it and hardly shows it form at all. The JMA shows a low pressure system track across the South of Ireland and Southern England bringing gales to severe gales to those parts. The CMA shows it to the far north of Scotland bringing storm force winds there.
Overall today the main models have downgraded it and there's a chance it may not come to much but some models point out it could head further South or further North and still be very windy.
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Most of the models have just updated to their 12z runs and overall there seems to be a large downgrade but there's still a chance something could develop.
The old GFS model still has the storm hit the North West of Scotland bringing storm force winds. The new GFS model has completely backed down and doesn't develop anything at all. The UKMO looks similar to the old GFS model run and both the NAVGEM and GEM continue to not be interested. Over the next few hours the ECM, JMA and CMA will update it will be interesting to see if they agree.
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GFS this morning keeps it to the NW of Scotland but has downgraded it from yesterday and the CMA also agrees with this route. The ECM, GEM and NAVGEM continue to not make much of this storm at all and don't really develop anything. The UKMO continues with what it was saying yesterday and has a deep low to the far NW of Scotland with the CFS showing the same thing.
So we have still large disagreements over the track it will take at the moment either we will see better agreement later today or at least at some point tomorrow.
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The models have shown for a few days now that on the 1st of January 2015 a low pressure system may deepen rapidly and arrive during the night of the 1st of January into the 2nd. At the moment the North West of Scotland seem to be in the direct path of this potential storm and its looking rather nasty it could be the storm of the winter 2014/2015.
The GFS model currently has the far North West getting average speeds of 60mph with gusts of 90mph and more,
There is a chance it could move further South still or even move further North and not affect us at all.
A quick run through of what the other models are showing,
ECM - Yesterday showed something to what the GFS currently has but its backed away from that idea today it shows it track over the South of Scotland as a much weaker system but still able to give strong winds to Northern England and Scotland.
UKMO - Further North than the GFS and a lot further North than the ECM proving the track of the storm hasn't been pinned down yet. It would bring storm force winds to the far North.
JMA - Takes the exact same route as the UKMO but less severe looking.
Both the GEM and NAVGEM - Don't really take much of this storm at all and show it may come to nothing.
CMA - Shows a very deep 940mb low hitting Northern Scotland bringing storm force winds to Scotland, Ireland and Northern England.
CFS - Similar route as the GFS.
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My monthly forecast for January 2015 can be read here https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4859-january-2015-forecast/
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Merry Christmas everyone enjoy the day.
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Going to close this topic as the wind event it was created for happened last week. A new thread was made recently to discuss the next possible storm over Christmas https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/82050-possible-low-pressure-system-xmas-eve/
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Sat images taken yesterday and today shows the snow over the Highlands,
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It snowed here for a few minutes and started to lay at 7pm. It's all gone now but first of the winter here.
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Impressive,
A wind speed of 144mph was recorded on the remote St Kilda islands, with gusts in excess of 80mph elsewhere.-
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Top Wind Speeds So Far Today83mph Cairn Gorm Summit67mph Bealach Na Ba66mph Aonach Mor64mph Cairnwell62mph Great Dun Fell 2Top Gusts So Far106mph Cairn Gorm Summit106mph Bealach Na Ba99mph Aonach Mor95mph CairnwellThe winds are expected to stay strong for the rest of today and tonight start dropping in speed but still staying strong.Satellite image taken today,
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Just had a heavy hail shower with some thunder and lightning.
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http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=daily;type=maxw
Top Wind Speeds Today So Far
83mph Cairn Gorm Summit67mph Bealach Na Ba64mph Cairnwell60mph Bealach Na Ba59mph Aonach MorTop Gusts So Far106mph Cairn Gorm Summit106mph Bealach Na Ba99mph Aonach Mor95mph Cairnwell81mph Tiree -
Wet and windy here with some heavy showers. The wind should continue to increase through the afternoon.
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Latest Max Wind Speeds1. 56mph Great Dun Fell 22. 54mph Cairn Gorm Summit3. 45mph Cairnwell4. 44mph Aonach Mor5. 42mph South Uist6. 40mph Malin Head7. 40mph Mumbles Head8. 40mph Capel Curig Saws9. 39mph Aberdaron10. 37mph Lake Vyrnwy SawsLatest Top Gusts1. 83mph Cairn Gorm Summit2. 72mph Cairnwell3. 70mph Aonach Mor4. 66mph South Uist5. 64mph Aberdaron6. 64mph Great Dun Fell 27. 59mph Lake Vyrnwy Saws8. 58mph Glen Ogle9. 58mph Tiree10. 57mph Malin Head
Satellite image taken today you can see the large area of low pressure just to the South East of Greenland,
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Latest Top Wind Speeds1. 62mph Great Dun Fell 22. 59mph Cairn Gorm Summit3. 53mph Aberdaron4, 45mph Cairnwell5. 44mph Aonach Mor6. 43mph South Uist7. 43mph Mumbles Head8. 43mph Bealach Na Ba9. 39mph Capel Curig Saws10. 38mph Prestwick RnasTop Gusts1. 99mph Cairn Gorm Summit2. 73mph Great Dun Fell 23. 73mph Aonach Mor4. 66mph Aberdaron5. 66mph Capel Curig Saws6. 64mph Killowen7. 63mph Aboyne8. 63mph Glen Ogle9. 63mph Cairnwell10. 62mph South Uist
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Top wind speeds according to the live weather top 20s page http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=current;type=maxw1. 71mph Cairn Gorm Summit2. 63mph Great Dun Fell 23. 59mph Aonach Mor4. 54mph Inverbervie5. 52mph Cairnwell6. 51mph Lerwick7. 47mph Fair Isle8. 46mph Baltasound9. 45mph Bealach Na Ba10. 44mph AberdaronTop Gusts1. 109mph Cairn Gorm Summit2. 99mph Bealach Na Ba3. 91mph Aonach Mor4. 77mph Great Dun Fell 25. 73mph Cairnwell6. 70mph Fair Isle7. 69mph Lerwick8. 66mph Inverbervie9. 64mph Glen Ogle10. 63mph Baltasound
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Top gust so far is 60mph in the Western Isles. Parts of Southern Scotland, Wales and Ireland have reported 50mph. The wind should continue to increase over the next few hours but then start to drop down in speed through this afternoon but still staying very windy. Through tonight and all day on Wednesday is when the highest winds will arrive.
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Tuesday all the way to Friday is looking stormy for a lot of places.
Tuesday 3am to 12pm - Northern Ireland and Scotland especially in the North West see gusts ranging from 50 to 70mph from the South West there is a chance that some exposed parts in the North West of Scotland could see 80mph.
Snow is likely to fall over the Scottish Highlands during the morning.
The sea conditions are still fairly calm at this point but the North West see's a 16 to 20ft swell developing.
Tuesday 3pm to Wednesday 12am - Strong gusty winds become widespread over all of Ireland and the UK at this point mostly ranging from 35 to 45mph with exposed parts 50 to 60mph gusts.
Snow is still expected to fall over the Scottish Highlands through the afternoon and into the evening.
Northern sea's start to become more rough with a swell of 18 to 22ft and the West develops a 24 to 28ft swell some very rough sea conditions.
Wednesday 3am to Thursday 9am - We now enter a long spell of very windy weather. Over Ireland and Scotland gusts range from 50 to 70mph with a chance of there being at times in exposed locations 85mph. Northern England and Wales 40 to 50mph gusts and the rest of England 35 to 45mph gusts.
While the best of the wintry weather will be in Scotland it does look like it could extend down into Ireland, Wales and parts of Northern England.
The sea conditions all day on Wednesday will be extremely rough in the West and especially in the North West with a swell height of 50ft and more.
On Thursday morning it does calm down a bit but still some very rough sea conditions in the West and North as the swell ranges from 20 to 38ft.
Thursday 12pm to Friday 9am - Thursday will still be a windy day for the UK and Ireland gusts will range from 35 to 55mph still and some of the strong winds will be further South this time as well.
The models are still a bit unsure on this but on Friday morning strong winds 60 and maybe even 70mph gusts come up the English Channel.
Most of the wintry weather stays in the North.
The sea conditions continue to calm down but still stays rough in the far North.
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New Years Day 2015 Storm Discussion
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
A slight upgrade this morning from some of the models along with the GFS at the moment its looking very stormy for some parts.
1st of January 6am to 12pm - Gusts across the West and North could reach 60mph with some places in the West of Scotland seeing over 70mph.
3pm - All of the UK and Ireland by this point will see strong gusty winds the worst will be in Northern parts with 60 to 70mph.
6pm - Gusts will range from 40 to 60mph across England at this point and while the North see's the wind drop down in speed there's a chance of 80mph gusts for the far Northern Scottish Isles.
9pm - While the rest of the UK and Ireland continue to see the wind speeds drop theres still a chance of 40 to 60mph gusts though. The Northern Scottish Isles see gusts over 85mph.
That's how it looks at the moment of course this needs to be watched closely for any further upgrades or downgrades but I have a feeling the exact detail won't be known until tomorrow.