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Zenarcher
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Posts posted by Zenarcher
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Some of the hills in the distance have a covering of snow on them nice to see. Sunday and Monday still look good for Scotland very cold temperatures along with wintry showers.
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There seems to be a chance of a potential storm arriving at the start of next week. At the moment the models are still unsure of the track it will take and each of them have shown us what may happen so I'm going to go through each one,
Tracks North
The ECM seems very keen and has consistently shown it to head in a Northerly direction. It makes it's way to the South of Greenland on Monday and deepens rapidly down to 960mb.
On Tuesday the storm then moves South East and sits over the North of Scotland bringing plenty of unsettled weather across most of the UK and Ireland,
Strong North Westerly winds affect Western parts especially over Ireland where gusts are shown to reach around 65 to 75mph,
The GFS earlier agreed with this route but has recently changed for a more North Easterly path. The UKMO looks similar to the ECM along with the JMA model so there is at the moment a good chance it could take this route.
Tracks North East
Both the GFS Parallel and NAVGEM from earlier today demonstrated that if it takes this route it could turn into a serious storm for the Northern half of the country. This morning on the 06z GFS parallel it showed the low deepen down to 940mb and bringing very high mean wind speeds along with gusts over 90mph for the North.
But as the GEM shows tracking North East doesn't mean a huge storm it all depends on the positioning of the jet stream something the models will handle better when it gets closer.
But even the GEM shows a deep low to the North eventually forming although nothing as severe the GFS Parallel showed us.
Tracks East
The 18z GFS which has just recently come out shows this along with the 12z NAVGEM which looks very similar. The low crosses the Atlantic and deepens as it does.
If it did take this route then the Southern half would take the strong winds as the gust chart below shows about 55 to 65mph.
Overall the models seem to agree on a unsettled start to next week the question is where and how bad? Or will it even happen at all? The 18z GFS Parallel shows this could also happen as it passes over the South of Scotland not deepening at all.
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My December 2014 forecast https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4846-december-2014-forecast/
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A very well put together forecast that's had a lot of work put into it. Well done.
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Posted my winter forecast in my blog https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4843-winter-2014-2015-forecast-december-to-march/
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Wet and windy for most places in Scotland today with severe gales in some places. It should dry up during the evening though.
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Haven't done a model comparison summary in a while so here is one comparing the GFS, ECM, UKMO, JMA, GEM, NAVGEM, CMA and the CFS.First of all a quick 3 day forecast covering the next 72 hours,Monday - Mostly a cloudy day with showers around Ireland and South Western Parts of Wales and England. Strong gale force winds develop in the West during the afternoon. Temperatures ranging from 0 to 15c.Tuesday - Rain falls over Ireland, Wales and Western parts of Scotland and England. Elsewhere will be cloudy. A strong breeze for most places but still touching gale force in the North. Temperatures ranging from 0 to 15c.Wednesday - After a cloudy start with showers England and Wales will clear up to sunshine by the afternoon while Ireland and Scotland stays mostly cloudy but dries up. Gales develop in the West and remain in the North elsewhere breezy. Temperatures ranging from 5 to 15c.Thursday - All the models seem to have pretty good agreement here on the heights building up over our North. The large Atlantic low varies in deepness with the ECM putting it down to 960mb but overall on average most of the models agree on 970mb. None of the models agree on the exact positioning of the low the however the ECM, UKMO and GFS are very close on where they centre it. The next area of interest is a low pressure system about to enter the Atlantic this seems to vary a lot between the models on how they handle it. The UKMO and GFS seem to agree on it spot on the ECM has slightly different positioning but overall seems very similar along with the JMA. The rest however make up their own mind on it. For the UK and Ireland a cloudy day with rain arriving in from the West during the evening bringing strong gale force winds.Friday - The ECM and GFS seem to have excellent agreement here with the UKMO and JMA also looking fairly similar. All the models once agree on heights building over our North. The large Atlantic low now weakens but again the models all seem to do something different with it. The deepness still varies around with 975mb being the average amongst them. None of the models seem to know where the new Atlantic low is heading but we seem some decent agreement with the ECM, GFS, UKMO and NAVGEM with it crossing the Atlantic before the Jetstream takes it in a South Easterly direction. For the UK and Ireland its looking like its going to be largely wet and windy.Saturday - The CMA and CFS have completely gone off in their own world now and show something completely different to the rest of the models. They do however show a blocked pattern although the CMA does put a bit too much energy into the Atlantic. The rest seem to have decent agreement amongst them the heights continue to build over the North and the large Atlantic low now has weakened down and sits to the South West of the UK. The weak low pressure system crossing the Atlantic thanks to the Jetstream is handled completely diffrently here but the ECM, NAVGEM, JMA and GFS all show something similar with it tracking South Easterly still. Some of the models try to build a ridge of high pressure behind it this can be seen on the GFS and GEM.Sunday - While its still a long way the models that go up to 168 hours show heights remaining to our North and a Southerly tracking weak jet stream making the Atlantic calm. Most seem to have a deep low pressure system developing to the South of Greenland as low pressure sits over the UK.
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I just checked the Home & Dry weather app.
There's a storm heading towards UK.
That's for Friday next week still a bit away yet but the models have been showing a low pressure system over the UK for the end of next week. The GFS 00z run from last night for Thursday/Friday showed widespread gusts across all of the UK and Ireland ranging from 60 to 70mph but this mornings 06z run has downgraded the low pressure system but still shows very strong gusty winds for Western parts. Something to keep a watch on.
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It should be 9th December according to this post: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/81409-gfs-upgrade-coming-november-2014/?p=3053057
Looks like it won't be much longer until the ghost of the current GFS will be heading up to that big glow in the sky...
It's served us well but its time to move on and join NOGAPS in the Weather Model heavenNothing much else to add as most of todays model runs have already been discussed, just that over the past few days I've been keeping a check on the CFS daily runs and noticed a overall trend in a blocked pattern consistently showing daily now for November into early December. Of course the exact details on any events that we may see won't be pinned down until nearer the time but its good to see a favourable trend at the moment in the longer range model.-
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From what I've heard the Met Office don't provide the data between 24 and 72 hours anymore but still let you view 96 to 144 hours. You can however view their fax charts they range from 24 to 120 hours.
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Not hear
You've chosen the 6th of October which won't work. As Paul said you can only choose dates from the present and onwards.
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A cold start with sunny spells and a light breeze.
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Reports of a very soggy Greenock and Inverclyde across my Facebook this morning. A8 closed and various (normal) spots badly flooded.
Yeah we had a lot of rain overnight and this morning a lot of roads have been shut and trains cancelled.
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A cloudy wet start with some flooding about.
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Some very bad flooding here this morning a lot of roads are closed and trains cancelled.
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Wind has picked up here in the past half hour, one of the bins outside which one of the neighbours didn't bother putting away over the weekend has blown down the street now.
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Very windy for most places tonight with a lot of rain on its way as well,
Monday 9pm - During the evening over Ireland and Western parts of Scotland will see gusts of 50 to 60mph. Rain starts to push in over Northern Ireland and Western parts of Scotland but its not expected to be heavy.
Tuesday 12am to 3am - Most parts of the UK will be windy with gusts of 35 to 45mph. Ireland, Wales, Northern England and Western Scotland will see the highest gusts of 50 to 65mph and some exposed area's may see 70mph. The rain becomes heavy at 12am over Western Scotland and Northern Ireland and it will start to move across the rest of Scotland and down into Northern England and Wales.
Tuesday 6am to 12pm - The wind will change to a North Westerly direction and give high gusts over Western Scotland, Northern Ireland, Wales and most of England. Gusts will range from 40 to 60mph for most places but Western Scotland could see 65 to 70mph gusts. In the morning the rain will be over Northern England and Scotland but it should move away as the morning progresses and places start to dry up but anywhere is still at risk of seeing some showers. In the morning and early afternoon a swell height of 22 to 26ft will be to the West coasts of Scotland and Northern Ireland giving very rough sea conditions there.
Tuesday 12pm to 12am Wednesday - During Tuesday afternoon over Scotland and Northern England will see the highest gusts of 50 to 60mph but some high ground parts could see higher gusts. By the evening the Eastern side of the UK gets 50 to 60mph gusts while the rest of the UK gets 40 to 50mph. During the evening and into the night the wind will stay strong in the Eastern parts of the UK but the wind should lower with gusts now around 40 to 50mph. By midnight the wind speeds continue to drop down. During Tuesday afternoon and the evening some wintry showers are likely over the Scottish Highlands. During the early hours of Wednesday morning a swell of 24 to 28ft will be on the Eastern side of the UK this could give some flooding for the Eastern coasts as it has done so in the past so it is something to keep a watch on.
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GFS 06z has it weaken as it crosses the Atlantic,
However it does bring gale force winds during Monday and Tuesday with rain arriving on Monday evening and staying around for most of Tuesday. Something to keep a watch on for now.
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Very strong winds on the way this evening,
9pm Thursday
Average wind speeds ranging from 40 to 45mph across the West,
And the gusts will be around 55 to 65mph in those areas as well,
There's also a heavy band of rain moving in it hasn't reached us yet but its gaining strength,
12am to 3am Friday
The strong winds will start to move inland over Ireland and Scotland at 12am on Friday bringing 50 to 60mph gusts but 70mph is possible over higher ground,
The heavy band of rain is just behind the worst of the winds at 12am the Western coasts will start seeing rain and by 3am it will start moving inland over Ireland and Scotland,
6am Friday
Southern Scotland and Northern England still see gusts ranging from 40 to 50mph,
The heavy band of rain weakens by the time it covers the Northern half of the UK,
3am Saturday
But it looks to gain strength again in the early hours of Saturday morning something to keep a watch on,
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My October forecast can be viewed here https://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4830-october-2014-forecast/
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My September 2014 forecast is now out http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/227/entry-4824-september-2014-forecast/
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The exact track of Bertha seems to look better now than this time yesterday. Below I have made up another quick map that shows the track of it using the GFS, ECM and UKMO. They seem to agree on it passing over the same area and the deepness is expected to be around 990mb which most of the models show although some do have it a bit deeper.
Using the latest GFS 06z run here's what it says is meant to happen,
Sunday 12am to 6am - Bertha approaches the UK from the South West it makes land fall over the South West of England and Southern Wales. Wind gusts of 35 to 45mph are possible with exposed parts seeing gusts of 55mph or slightly more. Very heavy rain moves in as well over this area.
6am to 12pm - The low is now over the Midlands, gusts inland across England and Wales ranges from 30 to 40mph and exposed parts could see up to 50mph. The rain becomes more widespread covering Northern parts of England and the Eastern parts as well.
12pm to 6pm - The low passes over Northern England which brings strong winds there gusts around 40 to 50mph and on exposed parts along the Eastern coasts 60mph is possible. The rain over Wales and England starts to dry up but Northern England and Scotland see the rain at this time now.
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The track of Bertha is still undecided by the models. The differences in them are still large but lets take a look at what the GFS, ECM and UKMO say in a quick map I've made below showing their tracks,
The GFS seems keen on keeping it to the North while the UKMO goes for it tracking across the very far South and the ECM is in between them.
So what do the other models say? Both the JMA and GEM models show something similar to the UKMO, they track it along the far South as well. NAVGEM agrees with the ECM. It would seem the UKMO has good support behind it from the other models. The ECM has some support but the GFS at the moment doesn't have much backing it.
Now lets take a look at what the GFS, ECM and UKMO show.
GFS 0z run has the low tracking across Southern Ireland and into Northern England. It brings wind gusts of 35 to 45mph but in exposed places over 50mph would be likely. It also brings heavy rain to Ireland, Wales and England.
GFS 06z run has the low tracking a bit more further North than the earlier 0z run. This puts the wind speeds up a lot more with 50 to 60mph gusts for Southern Ireland and Wales. Northern England gets something slightly lower around 45 to 55mph gusts. Heavy rain moves over the whole country through out the day but its Ireland that see's the worse.
ECM 0z shows the low at 9am to the South of Wales with winds around 35 to 50mph for the South West of England,
By 12pm the low is now over the Midlands and strong winds of 30 to 45mph move across Southern England.
3pm the low has moved up to Northern England which moves the strong winds to Eastern England now at 25 to 40mph.
UKMO 0z shows probably the least windiest out of the three. It shows gusts over 20mph for most places near the low as it passes by.
But it does show either heavy rain showers or heavy rain affecting almost everywhere in the UK during Sunday.
Overall the track of Bertha is still undecided between the models at the moment where the ECM or UKMO places the track of Bertha seems the most likely. The GFS and ECM show us that if it does track further North heavy rain and very strong winds will be a big issue for many however if it does track a lot more further South like the UKMO does the wind won't be much of a problem at all but either way they all agree on heavy rain will be a issue.
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The Met Office today have an update on it,
More likely to track South at the moment,
Tropical Storm Bertha is currently off the north east coast of the US and is likely to become an ‘extra tropical storm’ on Thursday.
It’s then expected to track across the Atlantic – and while there are still a number of possible outcomes, it looks increasingly likely that the UK will miss any serious impacts from ‘ex Bertha’.At the moment the majority of forecasts from those models suggest ex Bertha will track to the south of the UK as a relatively weak low pressure system.In fact it’s debatable whether this is even ex Bertha, as the storm declines to such an extent as it comes across the Atlantic that it fragments.A much smaller number of model outcomes suggest ex Bertha will move across the UK as a more distinct feature which could bring some strong winds and heavy rain. Because these outcomes are in a minority, however, they are less likely.While there remains a good deal of uncertainty about the weather on Sunday, it currently looks as if it will be fairly unsettled with some rain and breezy conditions – but nothing too unusual for the time of year.For More http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/08/06/ex-bertha-more-likely-to-miss-uk/
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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Winter
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by weathermaster
Some interesting weather ahead for next week in parts of the country,
Monday Looks to be a fairly nice day across the UK mostly sunny, dry and bright. There will be a cold North Westerly strong breeze that could touch gale force at times in the North. During the evening minimum temperatures look to get down to around -6c in the North and around 0c to 3c elsewhere. Frost and ice will develop in most places. The Met Office issued a watch for this.
Tuesday it's good to see the models eventually got the hang of the deep low that's due to form on Monday evening to the South East of Greenland, earlier predictions had it track straight to the UK so it looks liked we dodged a bullet with this one.
For the UK it's looking like a wet and windy day with rain being widespread for most of the day turning to showers in the evening which may be wintry over Scotland and Northern England. Gusts up to 70mph are likely in the North West of Scotland and all of the UK will have windy weather with gusts ranging from 35 to 50mph. Tuesday morning will start off very cold with a chance of some frost but temperatures are expected to rise as the day goes on.
Wind Gusts
Snow Risk on Tuesday Night
Wednesday The deep area of low pressure has moved away from Greenland and now sits to the far North of Scotland although it has weakened in strength it will still bring a unsettled spell of weather with it.
The South East of England looks clear and sunny for most of the day. Elsewhere is expected to be cloudy with wintry showers mainly being in the North West,
Snow Forecast for Wednesday Day Time
Wednesday Night Time
The main concern is the strong Westerly wind speeds where gusts could reach 70mph in some places and the Met Office also have a watch issued for this. Gusts will be mostly around 40 to 55mph slightly more than Tuesday's strong winds.
Thursday The deep area of low pressure continues to dominate our weather its looking like another cloudy and wet day for many with wintry weather continuing in the North West,
Snow Forecast for Thursday
Strong gusty winds for the Southern half mostly reaching 40 to 50mph but coastal parts could see 60mph.
During the night cold temperatures start to return thanks to the wind changing to a North Westerly direction,
Although still a few days away yet the current forecast does have some snow falling in then North West again during the night,
And by Friday morning there's a chance of it reaching the Southern parts of the UK,
Friday Still a fair bit away yet but its looking like there will be partly cloudy conditions along with showers inbetween and these showers could be wintry anywhere. A strong Northerly wind keeps the temperatures on the cold side.
On a side note something to watch the ECM 0z this morning did show a rather nasty low pressure system cross over Scotland bringing some high wind speeds,
Although this hasn't appeared on any of the 12z runs it does show that Scotland could be hit with a lot of snow if this did happen,