[12z model discussion - snow or sleety rain?]

Surface temps lower throughout

[12z model discussion - snow or sleety rain?]

So far, an absolute cracker for my area

850s T+78

Thicknesses T+78

Precip at T+78

-5 850 much further south and all of Scotland lower than 528 dam and some precip! Ground temps may be only obstacle to settling. So far, can be regarded as an upgrade! (Edit: for Ayr!)

[February CET]

Blast: Westerlies as Philip defines them are pretty much anything between SW and NW. Let's not bend facts to avoid uncomfortable truths. This is a re-run of Philip's point re August (when, for the unaware, Philip made the point that for such a northerly dominated month the remarkable things was that temperatures weren't a lot lower than they actually outturned, which was average...put another way, August, with the coldest synoptic set-up possible, was NOT a cold month in comparison with even the recent record, let alone the long record);

Whilst not denying global warming, I think it is incorrect to say that August had the coldest synoptic setup possible. Most of the August's northerlies circulated around the Azores High, not sourced from the Arctic.

The point has also been made that August 1995 had a high proportion of northerlies, and it wasn't exactly nippy either....

I suspect that with the coldest synoptics a month would still be cold, but just 0.5-1.0 higher than it would have previously. The question is of course whether GW has changed synoptics, my suspicion is yes, but it still doesn't rule out the occasional cold month.

[Honestly now: who has low-energy bulbs, and how many? Poll]

It is estimated that 16 billion tons of carbon would be prevented from being added to the world's atmosphere over the next 25 years if we all changed to low-energy bulbs. Yet, polls suggest a stark contrast between what we say we do about stopping AGW, and what we actually do. So here's the first of what may be several polls (!) to test how we perform on NW! No need for any embarassment ... it's anonymous, but interesting!

Between about 1/4 and 1/2. Every bulb that needs replaced will be an energy efficient one, but I don't see any point in replacing them all at once because then it's a waste of incandescent bulbs (carbon is produced in their manufacture in the first place). Totally agree with Mondy about the 24 hour supermarkets, it is obscene that citizens are pressured into doing "their bit" but business is free to waste - another example is leaving doors open in the winter and the incredible powerful heaters they use above the doors to compensate for this :lol: . Damn you've got me started lol.

[February CET]

SB you forgot my 7.15c.

For my first prediction and first post, I'm going to plumb for 5.7c, continuing the recent trend of mild months at 1.5c above the 1971-00 average.