weather eater

Nobody on either side of the argument would deny that warming has occurred the debate is by what mechanism. Even if we were to accept that the warming has leveled out for the last 10 years how do we know if this leveling out has occurred in the teeth of a natural downward trend that without human interference would have seen lower global temperatures as opposed to static ones for that period. Given what we know about greenhouses gasses it would seem to me to be highly unlikely that we are not having an impact. For those that think our impact can only be slight look at what happened re CFCs and the hole in the ozone layer and the impact that a ban on CFCs has had.

I have to pick up on this Stephen because I don't think that’s the case, all the books/materials that I have seen from a AGW perspective have talked about natural variations, it seems to me that it’s only the skeptics that seem to dismiss anything but natural variations. As this is a global cooling thread could someone present some real hard evidence of global cooling, not just of a leveling out or a tiny small drop in global temperatures which could be a natural year in year out fluctuation? Certainly the governments of Russia, America, Canada, Norway, and Denmark don’t seem to think the earth and more particular the Arctic are getting cooler as the squabble over who gets the economic rights in the Arctic seems to indicate. The argument that GW is all a big con by governments to get more money via taxation is really a non starter, this is not to say that this card has not been played but the truth is the real money is in GW being a reality. The other truth here is that we can go round and round in circles talking about this subject but it will change nothing, there is not the will power in the world to change our impact on the environment.

I don’t have an angle one way or another but as yet I've seen no evidence of cooling just a leveling out besides, as I have pointed out many times temperature fluctuations are standard fair for the planets climate but to prove the Earths climate is cooling would require several years of hard evidence of lowering temperatures not just a few years of leveling out that’s not an indication one way or another. A lot has been talked about in terms of agendas by various interested party’s it seems to me that those who have most to gain are those that want paint a picture of every thing being hunky dory in re the world’s climate, that’s where the money is.

It was indeed very good, as for the warming lets put it this way if you warm some water and keep it at roughly the same temperature is it cooling or simmering, a crude analogy but not far off the mark, you cannot describe little or no warming as cooling.

Its hardly surprising given the low set last year that this year has been so bad for it not to have been so would have required a seriously cold arctic summer, maybe someone has the figures I would be interested to know what the average temperatures have been in the arctic this summer.

Dull and overcast again with more rain last night, don't care how cold it gets this winter as long as we see some sunshine, because we have had a pitiful amount this summer

Looked first thing as if it would be a bright day after early morning mist very autumnal but now as murky as every other day this week blooming miserable.

Thinish cloud here with sunny breaks but very sticky not pleasant plus point not raining which is a nice.

I love that word two of my uncles live on Shetland I bet they would describe it the same

Shows what a difference the hills make, we are only some 30 miles away west of you and the suns never looked like it wants to party today.

Miserable day to day, dull and cloudy turning to drizzle then light rain if it wasn’t for the temps it would seem more like November than late august. Roll on winter and hope we get something fun. Have not sat outside in the evening all summer.

10 years more like twenty and although the 20s 30s might have been mild they were not uniformly so and if there is a trend going on at the moment I would suggest it’s to milder and milder winters, I can see no signs of a peak.

Adapt or die. I agree with what you say. First thing we have to learn is that we cannot blunder round the world using its resources, and destroying eco systems without it having a knock on effect. I want my children to grow up in as good a world if not better than I have, not a gigantic garbage tip constantly at war with itself. I'm still hopeful every winter that something special will happen and it’s been good to see a bit off a different spell this year but I would say to those that think the present warming trend is all part of a natural cycle and that one poor summer and an average autumn is the start of something else that they are fooling themselves, as I said in my earlier post AGW theory suggest cooler spells will be rarer but not impossible.

If only it was as simple as that. You say we would have a longer growing season and more rain; billions of others would have shorter growing seasons less rain drought etc. You cannot look at the UK in isolation. Severe climate change would cause amongst other things massive people migration, history teaches us that this in turn leads to wars but now there are billions more people on the planet its a recipe for global disaster on an unimaginable scale. What we are really talking about here is whether AGW is affecting the weather to the extent that it's impossible to get the kind of cold synoptics of twenty plus years ago. AGW theory suggests that cold winters will be rarer but not impossible. If the warming has had a greater effect on global weather patterns than scientists have predicted then we are in very great trouble indeed. Ideas that we will be alright because we will have a more pleasant climate are risible we will not be able to hide from a potential global catastrophe.

Hi Scorcher I guess it depends on what happens towards the end of the month whether or not we get a prolonged cooler period, if and that’s a big if, the GFS is near the mark in its recent runs then the last third of the month could be much cooler. I don't trust it past about 72hrs but I do have a hunch and to my mind that carries as much weight as FI model outputs. Curious about how different the weather can be in locations not far apart, Lancaster not being a long way from my location but my word we have had a lot of drab days over the last month.

Have nicked the above quote from the model thread as its not the place to discuss my reply so I will slap it here. Think you forget that even the most ardent advocates of AGW theory would not dream of suggesting that temps will go up and up without some lulls or even there being instances of cooler years or the odd cold winter. To ascertain whether that upward curve has peaked or in decline would take several years of evidence. If you gave 100 people with cancer carrots for a year and two of them got better would that mean carrots cure cancer I think not. While enjoying the change of pattern this year and the hope I might get to see some genuinely cold weather this winter I really do think it’s a blip. Even in other mild interludes in known history like the medieval warm period cold winters still occurred and despite the lack of accurate data it is believed by climatologists that temps were warmer then than they are now. That does raise an interesting point how fast did temps rise in that period and why.

Just had a look at a web cam of Sheffield and its looks sunny, here on the other side of the Pennines while not cold it is dank and misty and distinctly not sunny, a tad lower here no doubt.

You may also have noticed given that you live pretty close to me the lack of sunshine as well and frosts are rare in October and have always been as far as I can remember and that’s 40 plus years, eek! Certainly not windy but that’s not that unusual either. Think the point I was making was that unlike a number or recent Octobers this is not following the same course. October feeling like September and September feeling like August. At times in recent years it has felt like October may as well be a summer month. Of course we have two and a half more weeks two go this month and a lot can happen it would not surprise me if we ended up with an above average month but my instinct tells me we won’t. And if I'm wrong does it really matter, I like to be right but hey sometimes I'm not.

Not strictly speaking I made about a thousand posts under a different name but got bored with all the petty squabbles mainly about FI charts that never came to past and some people eluding that they had some sort of other weather predicting knowledge but with no substance to support there ideas, they are quick to crow when it comes off but disappear when they don’t. I call that luck or lack of it. I have moved this year so thought I would come back and for a couple of other reasons. 1. I can't resist it and 2. I really do think we have had an interesting summer and I do think we are in a slightly different pattern than of late and it will be interesting to see what happens. I don’t subscribe to the point of view that we have entered a new phase in the larger sense or that AGW is not happening I very much think it is. I have been surprised by Richard having read a lot of his posts in the past, that he is re-evaluating the issue of AGW; surely the scientific method is to corroborate the evidence then do it again and again. One short period of slightly cooler temps (and that’s debatable) can not verify the veracity or otherwise of AGW. On saying that he's a smart guy and it’s always a pleasure to read his posts. For the record I think we will fall in just below the CET average for October whatever that is. You can evaluate lots of evidence re the weather but sometimes just trusting your senses can work fairly well. This autumn defiantly has a different feel, what that might mean for the winter ahead is anybody guess and may come to nowt. People need to remember that even if it does feel like an autumn of there youth it does not mean the winter ahead will be cold; most of them in the past were pretty dull as I recall.

Can anyone tell me what the point of this thread is? Seems to be a bit, err well pointless. I mean I guess the CET for the month will be about average give or take a little bit. Some days will be above average some below, this time of year especially so. Unless of course we are comparing it to the little ice age in which case I guess we are up or against the medieval warm period then we are possibly down, of course without accurate records this is just a guess. But then so is every prediction on this thread, seems to be a lot of bickering and eye scratching for what should be fun guesses.

Not sure where to put this but here looks as good as any. BBC news article re Al Gores environmental film.

With the best part of three weeks to go and only making calculations based on notoriously unpredictable at long range weather models, it’s a lottery and no more. Might have a guess myself if there was any chance of winning anything.

I have a very simple take on this, I can hardly remember a white christmas in my 45 years so my expectation of there being on this year is next to zero. On saying that now I'm living in the NW my chances are slightly higher but not much I suspect