Costa Del Fal
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Posts posted by Costa Del Fal
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Well, that Birmingham cell since I posted now looks a lot more interesting. It is lighting up our skies in a different kind of way as the sun sets on this beast of a cloud! Great structure.
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8 minutes ago, Arnie Pie said:
Bang...... Big bolt across sky
Where? lol. Should be able to see it if you can. Doesn't look very stormy to my east/north east. Perhaps too far away. Looks stormier to my south/south west. However if it was seen to your East then I am probably too far away.
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Just now, MidlandsSean said:
Just had thunder and lightening in my location. Accompanied with heavy rain and hail!
Yes a few sporadic bits have popped up but anything proper away from the convergence zone is proving very hard to achieve currently. Well done on getting something though!
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Just now, Arnie Pie said:
Cells strengthening around Birmingham
Thought I heard a low grumble of thunder a little earlier but could have been the wind as the breeze has picked up, probably blowing things around. Yes, some cells looking a bit beefier but it still seems that when away from the convergence zone, a few rumbles and flashes at best is all that can be managed.
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If that Tewkesbury cell can hold out, a decent chance it would hit here too but can't see it sustaining for too long. Showers are moving north but the thundery elements are not or if they are only very slowly.
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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
That CZ was progged to be further N though. Very disappointing week here in terms of convective happenings.
We came so close on Tuesday night and now pretty close today too. Very frustrating but good all the same to see that there have been some pretty potent cells going on so a fairly active start to the storm season for 2016. Hope it continues... just not affecting the same places time and time again though lol!
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7 minutes ago, syed2878 said:
i see no one yet got the forecasted storms here in the west mids then?
Nope and highly unlikely to materialise this evening either. Almost all present lightning is attached to a convergence zone running East Anglia to the Severn Estuary area. Not forecast to move unfortunately.
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Just to demonstrate my point above with some images. Clearly the vast majority of sferics along the CZ - one which is not forecast to move much for the rest of today.
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Storms this afternoon seem to be focused only on the convergence zone from EA to the Severn estuary. Just don't the lift exits enough elsewhere for any more storms elsewhere sadly. Notice it is just the same areas seeing any new sferics. So unfortunately, I cannot see many new areas joining in to be honest unless any new late CZ's set up.
The Hi Res models show that the current CZ to not move and no new ones to set up i'm afraid.
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Looks to be a struggle to get anything going in the west but what is new there! lol
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Evident the amount of sun over EA has helped that storm. Elsewhere is a bit of a mess tbh so thunder risk low imo today. Could easily be wrong and it is warm here but just seems too much cloud for my liking.
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Cloud bases darkening here now.
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Pretty hard to pin the detail down for where the focus of any storms will be today (Wednesday). Likely to be very much convergence zone driven again as per Tuesday. Therefore, pretty much exactly the same situation as Tuesday though personally I am expecting more sunshine especially over the Midlands/Wales where there was often high cloud in situ Tuesday.Unsurprisingly, all models offering slightly different opinions as to where the CZ's will set up. They are important in forcing the air up and brewing convection however so being under one will significantly help when moisture levels are otherwise fairly low. One exception maybe Cornwall where an approaching occlusion front should generate enough ascent to form more widespread showers than Tuesday - the ICON model turns these thundery in particular.
Back to those pesky convergence zones, with a disclaimer in place that this is once again a guesstimate, i reckon North Devon could be a sweet spot again along with areas around the M4 Corridor particularly around mid afternoon. RE: M4 Corridor, best chances towards the east so Reading/London and I think Sussex and West Kent could join in too.
Towards late afternoon and evening, like today S Wales and the W Midlands could come in to play again too especially between the Brecon Beacons and Birmingham in my opinion. Ascent over the Brecons may be useful? The CZ here looks to run NE out of the Brecons then more W to E through the W Midlands region. A chance those in the E Midlands might see something too though a slightly lower risk here imo with less defined CZ's perhaps occurring here. This area like tonight could see showers lasting into the evening somewhat though storms decaying post 9pm approx again.
So all in all a similar set up with more sunshine and more showers I reckon though still many escaping with a lovely, fine day and wondering what all the fuss is about. Some photogenic cloudscapes likely so camera's at the ready.
Regardless, all showers and storms pretty slow moving and under any storms they could be dairly intense for a time with hail and a chance of localised surface water flooding. Higher precipitable water in the west may enhance this risk slightly here.
Just my two pence worth for Wednesday and I wish your location luck if it is thunderstorms you are after.
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Fresh sferic near Bewdley/Kidderminster now it seems. Thought I just caught a flash in the corner of my eye whilst working on my computer too but could have been something else.
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Gone really quite dark overhead now!
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8 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:
wouldn't ruled out a shower thunder is probably less likely but you never know but I hope not
Indeed Gordon. I hope it all avoids you of course!
Do think time is ticking for today anyway before energy dies away. Think the cloud was a little stubborn to leave in the end - seemed to be quite a bit of high cloud following the trough/front up north which developed over S Wales/W Midlands.
However some of those developing cells around Hay-on-Wye and Crickhowell/Abergavenny way may have our name on them here if they hold. Not a long distance but everything is slow moving today (and tomorrow!).
However one thing that does confuse me is that nocturnal cooling seems to be either a help or hindrance to storms. Can anyone help me on this. I have seen a couple of storms around evening in the past that have suddenly become very active lightning wise from nocturnal cooling (or so I was told) yet most of the time, everything just fades on sunset or thereabouts. Any information on this would be appreciated.
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Definitely some of the best convection of the day around here now, some darker skies just to my south. Probably will be a bit too late for anything here but tomorrow looks as if not more promising.
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Thundery weather now reaching South Wales. So far my expectation of increasing activity extending to S Wales is holding well currently. Again, all seems of a late (ish) convergence zone which extends from North Cornwall coast, N Devon with a continuation of this (or at least along the same trajectory) into S Wales through the Brecons, with signs of a couple of showers also now developing into the W Midlands region - Bromsgrove/Stourbridge area - could be part of the same CZ.
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North Devon lighting up now on Blitzortung. Looks quite active. Could be the start of a new convergence zone which at least the Arpege model for example seems to have developing around N Devon and also S Wales/W Midlands. Could be more developing on this axis within the next couple of hours rather than the W-E trajectory seen so far. Could be wrong though!
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If I had a punt as to where I think something thundery may occur it would be somewhere around East Somerset/Wiltshire I.e Yeovil to Swindon and also around Worcester. Just a guesstimate though.
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Nice pleasant and partly sunny/sunny morning for us in the south west quarter of the country. Cloudier further east and north so we are enjoying it well again. Risk of a thundery shower later.
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10 hours ago, conor123 said:
Eh was hoping for a sunny Sunday finally but to much mid level muck and a chill to consider facing the garden today haha!
A definite writeoff this month now for even squeezing in one nice day looking at the charts, see you in May.
Plenty of nice days in recent weeks. But maybe some bad luck further north your way and timing with the weekends. However it was a lovely sunny day till mid afternoon here albeit quite breezy but the sunshine was near enough constant till then so still pleasant.
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Ahh to have been back in Falmouth today. Looks like it has been a fun evening there. However today's storm surge has caused problems especially a few in St Mawes. Thankfully damage does seem limited across the SW though.
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Too far south for the thunder here. However it did pour down with rain and hail for a time. Very heavy stuff. Before hat it was another very pleasant day really. Tomorro (Tuesday) looks excellent too then downhill. Why oh why does the Greenland high suddenly become so easy to occur from now on?!? Hopefully it's Just a phase with the PV weakening. Won't last too long hopefully with this troughing stuck over us. I hope and pray anyway. Lol.
Storm & Convective Discussion April 2016 Onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Yes as soon as sunset has swept over the country, a sudden closure to new strikes it seems. No doubt one or two more may be fished out but that is it for today otherwise I think.