DEYS(Kent)

GFS Op is a massive outlier in the short term.

Depends what you class as a decent fall. I think a couple of cm at best if it does clip us.

GFS 12z grazes the south coast. How many times have systems gone further north than forecast. Many times.

Looking at the GEFS there are only a couple of members but enough interest for me that scandi heights could rise around day 10.

Track of storm on Icon 12 is still NW of London. Bleak for S and SE still..

All trending north with Weds/Thurs feature.. More runs needed..

ECM going west based -NAO?

Don’t reply a lot on here. But the charts at the moment are loaded with potential. Much better than the mild dross that has been served up in December’s past.

Current red warning is sensible and warranted given the population in these areas. However, I feel a statement from the on duty chief forecaster accompanying this warning would help to explain current thinking and what to expect going forward warning wise for rest of the UK.

In other words, after milder temperatures move in from the west we could see another cold shot from the East. Or we could have HP close to the UK providing chiller, but drier weather depending on the position of the higher pressure.

Neil, are you actually in Sellinge or at Work?

Icon so far keeps up the interest..

Para GFS a little different this morning. Has HP building over the UK a week today and easterly feed getting cut off..A variation of a theme and waaay too far out to be concerned about..

Wrong thread but is this a recent forecast?

Easterly still favourite. Longevity and depth of cold is still up for grabs.,.