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surrey slush

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Posts posted by surrey slush

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 3/2/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    So, in summary: consistency isn't always what it appears to be - accuracy

    .

    Indeed it's not, two independent measures, but consistency taken with the verification results, do give some credence to the ECM Atm, Whereas GFS flapping + the lower verification tends to undermine it. I think we can relegate Timmy's ramblings to the 'noise' pile, along with seagulls blum.gif and grannie's joints.

    WInter Model Output Discussion 12z- 28/01/2013

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    i think we should be more worried looking at the big storm that going to hit the u,k, sometime Friday ,could this do more damage them the great storm did as its so flooded and wet at the moment

    Is this storm possible, it doesn't seem to be showing up on UKM, and no warnings from them either... Is this another MFish storm, or is it just the GFS playing with it's spirograph?

    Winter Model Discussion 12Z 22/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Snowballz.

    I would say that the summer reliability may drop off due to the lack of stratospherically driven weather pattern (which is fairly predictable). The same may occur when we have a SSW - effectively we enter a summer pattern up above for a period - hence the record high shannon entropy recently.

    I suspect, that it's a little more prosaic than that; Summer - greater Solar input> more energy > more entropy> less reliable modeling.

    London & South East Regional Discussion 21st January 2013, 12z onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Its game over here for North kent-

    Sh*t pot cold spell this is-

    When the first front came down from the North- To far South

    When Fridays front arrived - To Far East

    When last night streamer came across - To far West

    When Tonights PPN has come through - To far North

    No ice days.

    I cant wait to move away from DA9 + greenhithe- snow desert of the SE.

    S

    Steve, it's not your location, it's you, you have a personal snow dome... North surrey is a ****hole don't come here. nea.gif

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Only because I feel a few on here seem to take everything GP, CH says as gospel. Im just trying to add some realisim here that the models aren't pointing towards another cold spell at the moment within a sensible timeframe or even FI. Basically im just trying to prevent members being disappointed if the cold spell doesn't arrive as GP, CH have been suggesting.

    The stratosphere is one piece of a jigsaw amongst many. However some of these pieces are bigger than others i.e SSTs. I just feel the Stratosphere isn't as big as some believe on here. I generally have a negative view of LRFs whoever produces them because in my opinion we cannot fit all these pieces together to complete the puzzle.

    Heh heh indeed, but I'll think you'll find a puzzle with 501 pieces out of 500 ..... will produce a markedly different image from the one on the front of the box ;)

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Ok, I simply don't have enough information to make a call on what the weather will do 28th+.

    But what should we be looking for in the models in the next few days to help us pick a horse?

    To my mind I'm not even looking for a GH @ 200hrs+, what I'm looking for first is ens support for whatever the OP run of the day is showing to break down, as seen prior to the the current event. It is painfully clear the the current models really can't deal with SSW downwellings.

    I'm not too disheartened by zonal models off into lalaland, but the good inter and intra model agreement is a bit worrying.

    The coldie in me is saying, even the comedy models can model a breakdown, and things like 920mb lows say things are afoot that just haven't been anticipated by the models, which by their very nature will always tend to the mean.

    What auguries do more seasoned members think we should be looking for in the steaming guts of the models?

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    whilst it quiet in here... We were all slating the NAE over the last couple of days for showing snow today spreading from wales across to the Midlands.... look at the radar www.raintoday.co.uk I think it was all the other models that failed to spot it! reports of a covering in East wales all the way accross to Newark / Grantham in East Mids!

    You could even look @ the radar on NW... but TBH, i think the NAE slagging off was because everyone thought it was pulling the 'friday' event into today weakening it and stalling it, whereas it was picking up a signal for what we now see. Well that and IF posted that the 'chief' at the MetO had binned/modified it.

    Winter Model Discussion 06Z 10/01/13>

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Wow that was a very bullish forecast from DB on the BBC, I'm quite surprised at the level of certainty shown for next week.

    They have obviously completely disregarded the GFS, thats a brave call.The plot thickens!

    Heh heh, they've probably been looking at the same upstream data you have, if the double shortwave never forms on any of the models but the GFS, It can hardly come steaming through our block... (Hopefully haven't misunderstood what you were posting)

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