BornFromTheVoid

It was watch x-factor or play with the CET data.... here's what I came up with. A more recent example, to add to Weather-history's, of a month that started off very mild and quickly cooled, is 1983. 1st 14.6 2nd 15.1 3rd 15.4 4th 16 5th 15.7 6th 15.2 7th 14.9 8th 14.5... 15th 13.1... 20th 12.4... 25th 11.3 31st 10.5

Yep, it's completely expected, as I said, tied in with the minima dropping faster than the maxima. Interesting to me how clear that trend is. Not sure what your 100% sceptics bit is about?

I just posted this in the Arctic refreeze thread, but thought some might find it of use here. Just looking at the IJIS sea ice extent, the average daily increase over the last 10 days (72,946km2/day) is the 4th highest since 2002, behind 2002 (109,556km2/day), 2010 (80,565km2/day) and 2008 (73,377km2/day), but higher than the 80s, 90s and 00s average. With the NSIDC October data, it's interesting to see the clear increase in October sea ice gains over the satellite record, which ties in with the minimum extent dropping faster than the maximum extent.

Just looking at the IJIS extent, the average daily increase over the last 10 days (72,946km2/day) is the 4th highest since 2002, behind 2002 (109,556km2/day), 2010 (80,565km2/day) and 2008 (73,377km2/day), but higher than the 80s, 90s and 00s average. With the NSIDC October data, it's interesting to see the clear increase in October gains over the satellite record, which ties in with the minimum dropping faster than the maximum.

Minimum today is 12.0C, while maxima reached around 18C, so a decrease to 15.5C on tomorrows update is likely. After that, the 12z GFS op run has the CET at: 15.2C to the 6th (13.8] 15.2C to the 7th (15.1) 15.3C to the 8th (15.6) 14.9C to the 9th (11.6) 14.1C to the 10th (7.6) 13.6C to the 11th (8.1) 13.3C to the 12th (9.8] 2C knocked off the CET in 4 days if this verified, from a 4 day average of 15.5C, to 4 day average of 9.3C. Not quite a shock to the system, but we'll certainly notice the chill!

With the recent US government shut down, I think their National Weather Service is trying to say something... http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=AFC&product=AFD&format=TXT&version=5&glossary=0

September Temperature and Daily plus Cumulative Rainfall for Cahir, Co. Tipperary, Ireland. Mean Max: 19.8C Mean Min: 11.8C Sep Mean: 15.8C Total Precip: 41.6mm Precip Days: 12 Highest Daily Fall: 10.6mm (17th)

Seeing as there was talk of the October CET and following winter, I looked at the correlations. Using just the raw October and following Winter CET, the correlation over the entire time series is 0.16 (r2 of .026, so Oct explains 2.6% of the Winter variance), although weak, it is statistically significant and +ve, so indicates that mild Octobers are slightly more often than not, followed by mild Winters (and cold followed by cold). As both show a strong warming trend, it may be the trend that shows the correlation, rather than October having predictive value for the following Winter October CET ............................ .......................... Winter CET So by removing the long term warming trend, we can get a better idea of the relationship between October and the following Winter October Detrended .................. .................... Winter Detrended With the warming trend removed from both, the correlation drops to just +0.1, with a r2 of 0.01 (which means October CET explains about 1% of the Winter variance) which is no longer statistically significant and suggests that the October CET has no useful predictive value for the following Winter.

The correlation, month on month, between the PDO and NAO is at it's strongest in November, at +0.28 (p<0.05).

Weeks of lying snow are extremely unlikely, especially in the first half of November. You only have to go back to 2010 to see the cold possibilities though. During the last 3 days of the month, there were sub 0C maxima, widespread snow and minima below -10C. Detailed monthly report below... http://www.met.ie/climate/MonthlyWeather/clim-2010-Nov.pdf

With the minimum of 15.7C, and maxima likely to reach over 19C (GFS), we should see an increase to about 15.7C on tomorrows update. After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at 15.7C to the 5th (15.5) 15.4C to the 6th (13.8] 15.4C to the 7th (15.6) 15.4C to the 8th (15.8] 15.2C to the 9th (13.7) 15.0C to the 10th (13.0) 15.0C to the 11th (14.4) The daily record for October 4th is 17.7C in 1959. So a maximum today of greater than 19.5C means we'd equal the record. No other daily records seem under threat at the moment, as 1921 had no day lower than 16.9C between the 4th and 11th. 15.4C after 1 week would give the joint 4th warmest first week recorded, while 15.0C to the 10th would give the 4th warmest first 10 days. Of the years that were above 14.5C after the first 10 days, this is how they finished. Year... First 10 Days....Oct CET 1921........16.5C ............12.8C 1959........16.0C.............12.6C 2011........15.4C.............12.6C 1949........14.8C.............11.7C 1908........14.8C.............11.8C 1825........14.8C.............10.8C 1995........14.7C.............12.9C ................AVERAGE ......12.2C

Snow cover in September was an impressive 6th highest on record, a huge change from the last decade or so. Eurasian snow cover was 7th largest on record. http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/table_rankings.php?ui_set=1 Unfortunately, the graphs haven't updated yet, but this year should be something similar to 2000 on the graph below.

And I thought the uncomfortable nights were behind me. Haven't had a single digit minimum in 2 weeks, 3 of those minima were above 15C and another 7 were above 14C!

That is the high emissions scenario, and the 1.7C is for the north east. 1.5C is the general average. Seems possible, given the increase already seen annually

I have already. The message was passed on to the Hadley Centre, and they should be getting back to me in a few days.

The minimum today is 13.3C, while maxima look like reaching over 19C (according to GFS), so an increase to around 15.2C is likely tomorrow. After that, the 06z GFS operational has the CET at 15.6C to the 4th (16.8] 15.5C to the 5th (15.0) 15.3C to the 6th (14.1) 15.2C to the 7th (14.8] 15.1C to the 8th (14.7) 15.2C to the 9th (15.3) 14.8C to the 10th (11.7) A CET of 15.2C to the 7th, will give us the joint 5th warmest first week of October on record. The 14.8C to the 10th, would give us the joint 4th warmest first 10 days (nothing compared to 1921 though, which averaged 16.5C for the first 10 days!)

Here are the daily adjustments, in tenths of a degree

Sorry to put a downer on that, but I'm not sure why the comparison with 2009 is made. 2009 had a strong -ve NAO through the summer, switched strongly +ve in September, and then back to -ve in October. This year has been +ve all summer, and will probably be close to neutral in September. Very, very different years. 2009 Summer NAO -1.2 2013 Summer NAO +0.7 The AO does look like being slightly -ve for September this year, but in 2009 was moderately +ve! Anyway, it's a bit early to say much about winter currently, it seems things are somewhat in the balance, with no strong signal either way, yet!

Warm, but certainly not dry in Ireland. Had about a dozen heavy downpours since yesterday. The two most impressive being at 12.30am and 6.30am today, the earlier one having a few claps of thunder thrown in. The rainfall total, of 31mm so far this October, is nearly 3/4s of what was recorded in all of September! There is currently an orange warning out for 50-60mm of rain over the next 24 hours in southern Ireland (accompanied by more thunder), so by the end of today, I could have double Septembers rainfall in 2 days.

Yes, so read the whole piece. The climate scientists, at real climate, in that link, disagree with you. How can the planet not be warming if ocean heat content is increasing? The top 700m meters is warming, but like global temperatures, at a slower rate From the realclimate link If the oceans are warming up, this implies that the Earth must absorb more solar energy than it emits longwave radiation into space. This is the only possible heat source. That’s simply the first law of thermodynamics, conservation of energy. This conservation law is why physicists are so interested in looking at the energy balance of anything. Because we understand the energy balance of our Earth, we also know that global warming is caused by greenhouse gases – which have caused the largest imbalance in the radiative energy budget over the last century. If the greenhouse effect (that checks the exit of longwave radiation from Earth into space) or the amount of absorbed sunlight diminished, one would see a slowing in the heat uptake of the oceans. The measurements show that this is not the case. I can't help it if you don't buy the explanations.

The voting is set to private, as people seemed to get bothered when I set the polls to open before, so we could see who voted for what. I guess in this instance, we'll have to trust whoever claims they voted for 5.3 or 5.1 million, as they'll probably be quite close. My own calculations show it to be 5.2 million km2, but I know the NSIDC use a different method, so my own may be a little off.

Taking a look at the referenced paper in that link, give us this table. Take note of the 0-2000m trends. And once again, from realclimate, rather than simply looking at 2003 to 2008 upper ocean data, how about the whole record?

I was very tempted to up my guess, but decided to stick with my Autumn forecast prediction. Anyway, with a minimum of around 11C and a maximum of near 17C, the CET for today should be something close to 14C. Looking at the 12z GFS, the CET looks like being around 15.0C to the 2nd (16.0) 15.5C to the 3rd (16.5) 15.7C to the 4th (16.3) 15.2C to the 5th (13.2) 14.6C to the 6th (11.6) 14.4C to the 7th (13.1) 14.1C to the 8th (11.8] Despite the very mild start, no daily records look under threat.

When the upper layer of the ocean warms quickly, the surface temperatures warms more quickly. But there is plenty more ocean below 700m. This is a very good piece on it by realclimate. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/09/what-ocean-heating-reveals-about-global-warming/

The poll was from back in June, but I stopped doing them afterward. The results can be seen here http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2013/june