BornFromTheVoid

Mostly cloudy away from the morning. 22.2C max. Currently a lot of dark clouds about, 17.8C and it's spitting rain. Not a hint of rain in any forecasts I've seen!

Yup, but the 12z GFS (despite its recent failings) has temperatures remaining well above average until the end of the month, and about 14.4C by the 29th. Within 0.5C of the 81-10 average is extremely likely, so an average September is, technically, all but guaranteed.

Feels like a humid summers day here, plenty of cloud but very mild maxima, 22.2C and dry. Wouldn't be far off the summer maxima of some recent years! More warmth to come in the near term it seems.

Temperatures looking significantly lower than the GFS prediced, around 22C maxima today looks likely. No record broken with that, and the 81-10 average begins to look much more vulnerable.

Update for the week to September 21st The current 1 day extent is 5,212,220km2, while the 5 day mean is on 5,137,794km2 The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -1,196,880km2, a decrease from -1,213,700km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average has increased from +1,068,460km2 to +1,077,843km2 this week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, the same as last week The average daily change over the last 7 days was +14.9k/day, compared to the long term average of +12.5k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +5.3k/day. The average long term change over the next week is +41.9k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +44.4k/day. The loss so far this September is the 17th lowest on record, at 107,230km2. To record the largest September loss on record, an average of +5.6k/day is needed for the remainder of the month The daily minimum extent so far this year is below the annual daily minima of 28 out of 34 previous years, and within 1 million km2 of another 5. This is compared the the 5 day average used by the NSIDC, which is below the minimum of 29 out of 34 previous years, 2009 being the difference.

Yep, showing that Stew is clearly an alarmist

An increase of 88k on the NSIDC extent yesterday. I think we can call the melt season over now. Quite an interesting one it was too!

Yep, good call Stew. I think we will probably see another mild Autumn regardless, as the ocean heat is released. Despite uppers being close to average, we're seeing the surface anomalies rise considerably. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/map/clim/glbcir.shtml

A minimum of 14.3C overnight, second highest of the month, after 15.2C on the 12th. Currently 16.3C and 86% RH, giving a humidex value of 20C. Mostly clear skies with a light southerly breeze.

Interesting. I presume they meant based on the August QBO anomaly (rather than September), in which case they left out the winter of 80/81 (August QBO of 9.61 in 1980), which makes it look a little different, but still pretty good With 80/81 Without 80/81

But when talking about the long term trend, you can't look at a single year in isolation!

Today should average something close to 14.4C, so an increase to 13.6C is possible tomorrow. After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at 13.8C to the 22nd (19.0) 14.0C to the 23rd (17.9) 14.1C to the 24th (17.6) 14.2C to the 25th (15.5) 14.2C to the 26th (15.7) 14.4C to the 27th (18.4) 14.5C to the 28th (18.0) The 12z GFS has pushed to cool northerly back a few days, allowing warmer air to move north by the 27th once again the CET to creep toward the mid 14s. At this stage, I'd say anything between 13.8C and 14.7C possible before corrections, with 13.4C to 14.6C after corrections.

The teleconnection trends will very likely change by the time I make my Winter forecast, however, using the analogous years from the Autumn forecast, the Winter 500hPa pattern isn't a million miles from those CFS charts. The difference is enough to change it from freezing cold to near average and wet. 500hPa GPH Anomalies 850hPa Temp Anomalies Precip Anomalies Still, even average uppers, northern blocking and plenty of precip would provide potential for some snowy spells.

A small fall on the NSIDC extent of 18.3k. This takes us to 46k off the minimum, so while the official 5 day average minimum value (which NSIDC use) is safe, the daily minimum isn't quite out of the woods yet.

It was just 1 study that predicted the possibility of ice free conditions by 2013 and the BBC reported on it, as they should do. The vast majority of studies, and thus the vast majority of BBC reports on them, have predicted ice free conditions closer to the middle of this century.

Some daily records to keep an eye on over the next few days 22nd: 18.7C (1956) 23rd: 18.3C (1956) 24th: 18.3C (2006) 25th: 19.4C (1895) The 22nd and 23rd are probably our best shot, with the 06z GFS predicting about 19C and 18C for those days respectively.

Well Ronan. Doesn't feel like frost is a possibility at the moment, 22.2C with 78% RH. That's a humidex value of 28C! Ridiculous for the end of September.

It's the fact that it was the 6th lowest on record that reinforces the long term downward trend.

The IMS sea ice extent data (which I think are used on those snow maps) has updated to the 18th, showing an increase in the last 2 days or so.

The MASIE extent data didn't update for Wednesday (so missing a day) but has updated Thursday, showing an impressive 301k jump from Tuesday to Thursday Here's a graph of the September NH MASIE extent, with Wednesdays data interpolated. I think that's another minimum we can safely call!

I used to think that most religions involved a few people catching a glimpse of the reality of the universe and being unable to interpret what they saw correctly, hence, despite the many differences, there are many similarities between all religions. That included life after death, many religions, spiritualists, etc., have differring, but in some ways, similar views of what occurs when we shuffle off this mortal coil. After a while, I came to the realisation that most religions have similarities, not because they all had different interpretations the same "truth", but because they're all completely made up by man. And so the popular views of heaven, nirvana, the afterlife are all entirely made up. So now I'm one of those that's 99% sure that when we die, that's it, game over. But 1% also says, that almost anything is possible. Sounds like a bad Salvia trip! Could make for an interesting painting though.

I don't think any other years have lost over 100k in the last 10 days of September, so we can probably call the IJIS minimum now, so 4,809,288km2 on the 12th. The ice free areas got very close to the north pole this year. I think the thickness chart shows it well also

I'll go with 12.0C for now, as per my Autumn forecast.

From those years, just lower than 2009, higher than the other two for IJIS. Based on the NSIDC extent data, we're higher than all minima after 2007. With Cryosphere Today area, we're higher than all after 2007 also.

While you're probably right, I'd say we'd want to give it another few days, just to be sure. All but the area are still quite close to the minimum values, IJIS being about 61k off and NSIDC just 13k off, while MASIE continues to set new lows.