BornFromTheVoid
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Posts posted by BornFromTheVoid
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Lovely day here today forget autumn its still summer like here wall to wall sunshine 21c and light winds perfect day
Feels like a humid summers day here, plenty of cloud but very mild maxima, 22.2C and dry. Wouldn't be far off the summer maxima of some recent years!
More warmth to come in the near term it seems.
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13.5 to the 21st
Min today of 13.4 max likely around 21.5 (would need to get to over 24 to beat the daily record). So rise to 13.7 likely tomorrow.
Met forecasts for 5 days and GFS ensemble mean afterwards would take it to.
22nd 13.7 (17.5)
23rd 13.9 (17.7)
24th 14.0 (16.2)
25th 14.1 (15.8 )
26th 14.1 (15.2)
27th 14.1 (13.0)
28th 14.0 (12.5)
29th 13.9 (11.5)
30th 13.8 (10.5)
Still climbing warmer, as the ensembles reduce the likelihood of the coldest options for the last few days. Met forecasts don't generate the same warmth in the next few days as the GFS is projecting, but still enough to pull it close to 14.0 before corrections. I would put my likely range a bit lower than BFTV and say 13.6 - 14.3 before corrections - 13.3 to 14.2 after corrections.
Temperatures looking significantly lower than the GFS prediced, around 22C maxima today looks likely. No record broken with that, and the 81-10 average begins to look much more vulnerable.
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Update for the week to September 21stThe current 1 day extent is 5,212,220km2, while the 5 day mean is on 5,137,794km2The daily anomaly (compared to 79-11) is at -1,196,880km2, a decrease from -1,213,700km2 last week. The anomaly compared to the 07, 11 and 12 average has increased from +1,068,460km2 to +1,077,843km2 this week. We're currently 6th lowest on record, the same as last weekThe average daily change over the last 7 days was +14.9k/day, compared to the long term average of +12.5k/day, and the average of the last 5 years of +5.3k/day.The average long term change over the next week is +41.9k/day, with the average of the last 5 years being +44.4k/day.The loss so far this September is the 17th lowest on record, at 107,230km2. To record the largest September loss on record, an average of +5.6k/day is needed for the remainder of the monthThe daily minimum extent so far this year is below the annual daily minima of 28 out of 34 previous years, and within 1 million km2 of another 5. This is compared the the 5 day average used by the NSIDC, which is below the minimum of 29 out of 34 previous years, 2009 being the difference.
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Just to point out, any forecasts were made based on the old version of IJIS, which finished at 5 million, rather than the new version which s 200k lower.
Yep, showing that Stew is clearly an alarmist
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An increase of 88k on the NSIDC extent yesterday.
I think we can call the melt season over now. Quite an interesting one it was too!
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IJIS up another 64k today or 178k above the min
Does look like the min of 4809288 12th Sept (my forecast early June of 4.8m for season end seems to have been a good call
)We need volume and extent
NSIDC sums up the current year nicely
In contrast, this year’s Arctic summer minimum ice extent is approximately 30% below levels seen in the early 1980s, and the 2012 record low extent was around 60% below levels seen in the same period
.â€http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/2013/09/4292/
What we don't want is another 'mild' winter in the high artic
Yep, good call Stew.
I think we will probably see another mild Autumn regardless, as the ocean heat is released.
Despite uppers being close to average, we're seeing the surface anomalies rise considerably.
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A minimum of 14.3C overnight, second highest of the month, after 15.2C on the 12th.
Currently 16.3C and 86% RH, giving a humidex value of 20C. Mostly clear skies with a light southerly breeze.
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Interesting conversation on twitter earlier this evening
https://twitter.com/blizzardof96/status/381488730592141312/photo/1
Interesting. I presume they meant based on the August QBO anomaly (rather than September), in which case they left out the winter of 80/81 (August QBO of 9.61 in 1980), which makes it look a little different, but still pretty good
With 80/81
Without 80/81
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All we can say for this year looking at it in isolation is
In reality this year doesn't reinforce the long term downward trend .
This years shows a increase on last year of 60% the best in the last 6 years but still runs well below the long term average extent/volume.
But when talking about the long term trend, you can't look at a single year in isolation!
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Today should average something close to 14.4C, so an increase to 13.6C is possible tomorrow.
After that, the 12z GFS has the CET at
13.8C to the 22nd (19.0)
14.0C to the 23rd (17.9)
14.1C to the 24th (17.6)
14.2C to the 25th (15.5)
14.2C to the 26th (15.7)
14.4C to the 27th (18.4)
14.5C to the 28th (18.0)
The 12z GFS has pushed to cool northerly back a few days, allowing warmer air to move north by the 27th once again the CET to creep toward the mid 14s.
At this stage, I'd say anything between 13.8C and 14.7C possible before corrections, with 13.4C to 14.6C after corrections.
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Latest CFS has gone mental for January with an anomaly of 6C below the average 850 hpa values.
Pressure anomaly...
Obviously one run means nothing in terms of producing a forecast as we all know but it's nice to see this scenario crop up again nonetheless.
The teleconnection trends will very likely change by the time I make my Winter forecast, however, using the analogous years from the Autumn forecast, the Winter 500hPa pattern isn't a million miles from those CFS charts. The difference is enough to change it from freezing cold to near average and wet.
500hPa GPH Anomalies
850hPa Temp Anomalies
Precip Anomalies
Still, even average uppers, northern blocking and plenty of precip would provide potential for some snowy spells.
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A small fall on the NSIDC extent of 18.3k. This takes us to 46k off the minimum, so while the official 5 day average minimum value (which NSIDC use) is safe, the daily minimum isn't quite out of the woods yet.
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Disagree. The Arctic was supposed to be "ice free" by this year. Now the BBC et al. have moved the goal posts by 57 years.
Load of cobblers and spin to protect their pension fund.
It was just 1 study that predicted the possibility of ice free conditions by 2013 and the BBC reported on it, as they should do. The vast majority of studies, and thus the vast majority of BBC reports on them, have predicted ice free conditions closer to the middle of this century.
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Some daily records to keep an eye on over the next few days
22nd: 18.7C (1956)
23rd: 18.3C (1956)
24th: 18.3C (2006)
25th: 19.4C (1895)
The 22nd and 23rd are probably our best shot, with the 06z GFS predicting about 19C and 18C for those days respectively.
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How's it going Void? It is extremely quiet in here! Won't be long till things liven up. Last year my first frost was the 25th September then the first signs of winter started to appear! Signs are already there and showing plenty of northern blocking for the upcoming winter but it's early days yet!
Well Ronan. Doesn't feel like frost is a possibility at the moment, 22.2C with 78% RH. That's a humidex value of 28C! Ridiculous for the end of September.
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Saying a huge jump up 'reinforces' the downward trend is outrageous spin.
It's the fact that it was the 6th lowest on record that reinforces the long term downward trend.
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The IMS sea ice extent data (which I think are used on those snow maps) has updated to the 18th, showing an increase in the last 2 days or so.
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The MASIE extent data didn't update for Wednesday (so missing a day) but has updated Thursday, showing an impressive 301k jump from Tuesday to Thursday
Here's a graph of the September NH MASIE extent, with Wednesdays data interpolated.
I think that's another minimum we can safely call!
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I used to think that most religions involved a few people catching a glimpse of the reality of the universe and being unable to interpret what they saw correctly, hence, despite the many differences, there are many similarities between all religions. That included life after death, many religions, spiritualists, etc., have differring, but in some ways, similar views of what occurs when we shuffle off this mortal coil.
After a while, I came to the realisation that most religions have similarities, not because they all had different interpretations the same "truth", but because they're all completely made up by man. And so the popular views of heaven, nirvana, the afterlife are all entirely made up.
So now I'm one of those that's 99% sure that when we die, that's it, game over. But 1% also says, that almost anything is possible.
I wanna be cremated! But anyway, re near-death experiences/afterlife etc... in a coma ten years ago I came so close to death that the doctors had given up on me and they told my family as much. I vividly remember a nightmare/vision or whatever where I was floating on the ocean. In the near distance was a whirlpool. I was acutely aware of my heartbeat which was very,very gradually getting slower - the whole thing seemed to last forever. As it slowed, the whirlpool drew closer, but smaller and tighter. As my heartbeat slowed to what seemed to be minutes between each beat, I was constantly telling myself that the next one would be the last and I would be dead. Amidst the mad spectacle of this flashed images of my family,my baby son who I was convinced I'd never see again and a million snapshots of my life. Utter despair, hopelessness and resignation and a sadness and melancholy that defies any description. The whirpool was eventually upon me after I'd been waiting the longest interval yet for my next heartbeat. The hearbeat I'd been waiting for never came,as I was suddenly in the sucking maw of the whirlpool. Just as I was about to cross the 'event horizon' as in a black hole the grim reaper himself exploded from the centre of the whirlpool with scythe poised. Which does not bode well for when my time's up for real!! Next thing I knew, which must have been weeks later, was coming round with tubes inserted all over the place. Whether that qualifies as a genuine NDE or just the effects of huge amounts of morphine and god knows what other drugs, I can't say...
Sounds like a bad Salvia trip! Could make for an interesting painting though.
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In need a few more days although IJIS shows a 64k rise today
http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
ps Is that low ice concentration near the Pole ? (see attached)
http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticicennowcast.gif
I don't think any other years have lost over 100k in the last 10 days of September, so we can probably call the IJIS minimum now, so 4,809,288km2 on the 12th.
The ice free areas got very close to the north pole this year. I think the thickness chart shows it well also
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I'll go with 12.0C for now, as per my Autumn forecast.
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Do we have a higher minimum extent, assuming we've reached the minimum, than any of 2008, 2009 and 2010 according to IJIS? Google almost has too much information...
From those years, just lower than 2009, higher than the other two for IJIS.
Based on the NSIDC extent data, we're higher than all minima after 2007.
With Cryosphere Today area, we're higher than all after 2007 also.
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Time for the re-freeze thread?
Some nice growth over last day or so.
While you're probably right, I'd say we'd want to give it another few days, just to be sure. All but the area are still quite close to the minimum values, IJIS being about 61k off and NSIDC just 13k off, while MASIE continues to set new lows.
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I'd guess that maxima will reach about 17C, so remaining on 13.5C on tomorrows update either way.
After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET around
13.6C to the 21st (14.0)
13.8C to the 22nd (18.7)
14.0C to the 23rd (18.7)
14.2C to the 24th (17.6)
14.3C to the 25th (16.7)
14.3C to the 26th (15.5)
14.2C to the 27th (12.4)
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September forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. Competition
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Yup, but the 12z GFS (despite its recent failings) has temperatures remaining well above average until the end of the month, and about 14.4C by the 29th.
Within 0.5C of the 81-10 average is extremely likely, so an average September is, technically, all but guaranteed.