DR Hosking
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Posts posted by DR Hosking
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I will guess 15.7C
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total guess, 10.6c
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Xmentman, are you using Hadley figures? If so how have you got a figure dofferent to theirs?
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Hadley has a final figure of 8.3c, although today the BBC are quoting a figure of 7.7c from the Met office, not sure where that comes from, maybe a UK average rather than CET average?
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I guess its gonna be cool, potentially cooler than March! its 8.0c for me.
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Hadley 8.4c to 28th
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I noticed that some places have had remarkably mild overnight mins, Magilligan in Northern Ireland didn't drop to below about 14C the other night (I think...). Coastal areas seem to be retaining the heat far more than inland locations.
We have had a white frost last 2 mornings
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we actually had a ground frost last 2 days, had to scrape the car, close to air frost too, warming up now, warmest day of month yesterday, up to 18c
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looks to me like everyone has been fooled into going too high now! Im not making a prediction yet but I reckon it could be on the cool side!
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7.6c to the 22nd
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Hadley has 7.4c to the 15th
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Hurah, at last my uneducated guess nearly hits the jackpot!
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Philip Eden going for 4.05c for February
CET: (Feb 1-29): 4.05°C (-0.45 degC) E&W Rain: (Feb 1-29): 30.8mm ( 46 per cent) E&W Sun: (Feb 1-29): 77.0hr ( 92 per cent) © Philip Eden (If you wish to use or copy these figures, please acknowledge the source)
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It is strange that the run of above average months since September look set to continue. Surely the law of averages must change things now.
Its probable February will finish below average after adjustments, ok very slightly below average! Law of averages doesnt really do weather, sure we had a run or over 10 above average months only a few years back.
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my guess is 7c please
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despite forecast feels cool here, ok 10c in February is not cool but its dull and grey and didn't feel warm when out as lunch time.
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BBC report on Melting Arctic link to cold, snowy UK winters
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looks likely to be 4,4c thereabouts before corrections
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29.4c here, low of -13c and high of 16.4c, so far!
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serious drought here, local stream is almost empty and its mid winter and has been very low for over a year. So far this year we have had 56mm of rain, thats about 55% of what we should have had, and thats followed 66.5% of average rainfall for whole of last year. So very dry.
Incidentally this month there has been 32.5% of the rainfall we should expect and at the same time only 52% of the sunshine! So it has been very dry but also very dull!
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Looks perfect! Do you know where that actually is, Aaron?
Looks Like High Cup Nick, North Pennines to me.
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Another big leap in the CET: up to 0.7C now and that's still 12 hrs shy of the mid-point. Something in the 3C's likeliest from here? But possibly over 4C.
Just to illustrate the east west split on the CET for this month (I mentioned before the westerly bias of the CET stations) our local proper weather station (not digital) which is on the eastern side of the CET imaginary rectangle still has a average of -0.5c for the month up to today, compared with the official CET or +0.7c
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Hadley is on 0.2C today (Feb 1 - 13).
Looking at today's 06z GFS model overall it looks fairly mild until month end. Not sure the CET can get above average unless we have a fairly constant feed of TM air but an outcome between 3C and 4C is certainly feasible.
Latest enembles would give us an average by the end of month as about spot on 4c, remarkabley warm given the cold of last week, I live on edge of CET zone and hardly got above freezing all week and had 2 lows sub -10c, I have a question, to me the location of the stations looks skewed to the west! Which is why despite most of central England having lows of -10c or lower on Saturday and Sunday the CET stations only recorded lows of -5c or so, likewise the high for Saturday was -3c and the CET stations recorded wall above that.
Another point worth noting, this year is a leap year, so February has an extra day, would this not skew figures for the month compared to other February's? Ok its only one in 29 days but its at the end of the month so likely to be warmer than the month average as a whole, any thoughts?
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my hamlet is still 100% cover, warming up though so expecting it to thaw slowly over next couple of days
im South Northants
July CET Watch
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
15.5c to the 4th, Bang on where it should be.