bluearmy

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...y/814day.03.gif a tad more promising than for a while JH. although we still have no positive anomoly over us a modicom of synergy with late July output (or am i being rather optimistic?)

NOAA cpc are discussing upstream changes over N america in their chat tonight JH. doesn't seem to work its way to any changes in our neck of the woods before mid month though which is where your thread looks out to. lets hope for those over the next few days.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/hgtcomp.html granted its from the op run, but the location of the negative atlantic anomoly is the same as the cpc chart which is derived more from ens data rather than operational (only just today though) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...y/610day.03.gif though its more south west/north east axis rather than south/north

sorry to distract you JH but that is more support for my thoughts that ECM is indicating a euro/sceuro high of sorts, dragging up a southerly. the fact that the 8/14 day output magically removes the high 3 days on the bounce must mean that GFS and GEM, in contrast, have no appetite for it. (ECM is absent from the 8/14 day musings on cpc)

i asume you are working hard on tonights update JH. do you think it significant that on todays cpc 6/10 day output, where ecm is heavily weighted, the atlantic trough is set that bit further west whereas, once we get to the 8/14 day chart with GFS/GEM only, the trough is back over the UK???? there certainly looks to be more of an appetite today for a warm southerly drift as we possibly get squeezed between an atlantic trough and a block to our north east.

all seems reasonable JH but the NOAA cpc confidence in the pattern upstream remained poor for the whole of the week. i detect a small trend for pressure to eventually rise from the south west and become the primary inluence rather than the retrogressing high to greenland as per the weeks cpc output. tonights ecm op and control show this http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/Data/PLUIM_06260_NWT.png a blip or a trend ???? or maybe i should have waited for the exended ens to cast a rather better light on the control run evolution http://www.knmi.nl/exp/pluim/vijftiendaagse/index.html would be a shock to go from 25c on the monday to 12c on the tuesday with no storm apparent??????

spending too much time looking at the NWP and related output which seemed to point in this direction and looks as though it might well be right

makes sense JH although i have a strange feeling that things will stay mild after the BH w/end with the trough stuck to our west and blocking to our north east stretching down into europe

todays cpc charts are rather more encouraging JH with the atlantic trough looking well set and that bit further west

reading the prose from NOAA re the 14 day 500mb output, i'd say things are the most uncertain i've seen for a long time John - A SHORTWAVE DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY COOL AND WET CONDITIONS. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT, AT BEST, TO CONFIDENTLY PREDICT ANY OTHER ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CONUS AND MUCH OF ALASKA. CONTINUITY WITH THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY FORECAST, AND KNOWLEDGE GLEANED FROM RECENT ERRORS WERE USED IN ADDITION TO THE USUAL TOOLS, TO MAKE THIS WEEK 2 FORECAST. IT IS HOPED THAT TOMORROWS MODEL GUIDANCE AND SURFACE TOOLS WILL BE BETTER ABLE TO RESOLVE THE MEAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION PATTERNS FOR THE WEEK 2 PERIOD.

John, the prognostic discussion is clear as to what model input has gone into the chart - here is today's 6-10 day: TODAYS OFFICIAL 500-HPA BLEND CONSISTS OF 15 PERCENT OF TODAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 7...15 PERCENT OF YESTERDAY'S OPERATIONAL ECMWF CENTERED ON DAY 6...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...20 PERCENT OF TODAY'S CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8...AND 30 PERCENT OF TODAY'S EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 7. MODEL(S) OF THE DAY: 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD IS BELOW AVERAGE... 2 ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 5 DUE TO UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT-OFF LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST CONUS AND POOR AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS. the ecm is not used in the 8-14 day chart.

low confidence in the 500mb output from NOAA on friday John - worth noticing the difference again between the automated output from yesterday and the forecaster modified on friday - quite a difference which i think might negate yesterdays output

JH, you will no doubt have noted that the two 500mb charts that had the block a bit too far west were the weekend automated ones which refelcted the GEFS output. the forecaster (modified with other model input) issued charts have been more accurate with the block averaging just to our east over the 4 day period.

and, according to the prognostic prose, a return of ecm input for these anomoly charts John - just in time for the pattern change although next human input chart is Monday.

quick question John: looking at the cpc prognostic discussion today: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...day/fxus06.html a complete absence of reference to ECM. having read the NOAA discussion, it seems absolutely impossible that ECM 00z run could be ignored in coming to an anomoly forecast chart for North America. this happened for a week or so in early december and its bloody annoying. i assume there to be some kind of political thing going on here with ecm not allowing NOAA to use their data on a publicly available chart. if i were the chaps at NOAA cpc, i'd still use the data and just not reference it in the discussion - after all, i wouldn't want to be wrong. any thoughts ???? (unless we can verify that the anomoly charts appear to have taken account of ecm data, it seems that they are much diluted as a forecasting tool as they merely represent GEFS/GFS runs which we know from the NOAA discussion can be out of synch with the general NWP)

welcome back GP = we need some help mate

read the post from earlier - it wont happen - the river is tidal below teddington lock and flooding will only occur from high tides or flash flooding in exceptional rain events. lets not perpetuate the scare stories and lets stick to the facts.

more like 'scary'. i think this period was a strong possiblily. many on here and TWO felt that the trough wuld be a lot closer to us than last summer with the plume affecting E europe. given the high SST's and latent heat left over from the warmest winter for ages over europe, the atmosphere would be predisposed to holding more moisture = more precip. the southerly depth of the jet is remarkable and responsible for the lack of any blocking in our parts...............lets not lose track of reality though

keep looking for that dove with a healthy twig in its beak

no one bothering to help? look at GFS on wetterzentrale and click on 'AFRIKA'. the gulf is visible at the top of the map. no need really for NWP there though - it'll be stifling and dry.