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Jan 87

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Everything posted by Jan 87

  1. Jan 87
    rubbish 06z op. Lets see what the control and GEFS do
  2. Jan 87
    ECM could end up as a scandi high further down the line
  3. Jan 87
    And we forget the legendary winters of 78/9 and even 1963 only got going after Christmas
  4. Jan 87
    Hopefully its just a case of putting up with a week of crud and then we can build another block in a favourable position, but probably no chance of a White Xmas now
  5. Jan 87
    Just noticed the GEM control run was also good, so we can cling to this model for hope. but we are probably just jaffa cakesing in the wind with this one.
  6. Jan 87
    The only straw we have as Nick mentioned is the modelling of the Arctic High. There may be time for another flip back, but we should prepare for the worst. At least we had one cold spell this winter
  7. Jan 87
    Oh dear. Pants ECM to go with most of the other output, apart from GEM Pete Tong has arrived to bugger it all up again
  8. Jan 87
    Pert 16 could deliver a white Christmas, but little point looking at page 2 of metiociel at this stage until the earlier pattern is resolved
  9. Jan 87
    Pert 7 is perhaps something we can hope for if the current trend is now accepted, virtually keeps it cold for everyone, but regardless of a brief mild spell we are hopefully moving towards model consensus. We need a good ICON 12z followed by UKM and Mogreps shifting towards this solution, but of course, the whole suite could shift again like we saw the other day, so pete tong is never far away! Yes, as I was just saying, we might even get back to a 24 hour warm up only, but lets not be greedy!
  10. Jan 87
    Shame we cant see the extended, but looks more like ECM than UKMO We need a good GFS op this time after the disappointment of the 00z, though the control and GEM were still good We are walking the tightrope thats for sure!
  11. Jan 87
    Slight improvement this morning compared to the disaster of last nights ECM. As Nick sussex said, dont give up just yet, though it is looking green for xmas but perhaps some blocking afterwards is possible
  12. Jan 87
    Control looks like big rain to snow event next Wednesday
  13. Jan 87
    Yes, normally it always flips to mild, but perhaps the Xmas gods are listening to us!
  14. Jan 87
    interesting control so far, getting there, cold stays for the north
  15. Jan 87
    Would be perfect for Xmas day.
  16. Jan 87
    Pert 6 and 19 is what we want to see, lets see if more like this in the evening spread
  17. Jan 87
    If you are positive, then I wont give up just yet. FIne margins as you mentioned. Tonights runs will be crucial, that old cliche really does apply to this situation!
  18. Jan 87
    Everyone's on strike at the moment. I doubt we would get much movement towards UKMO, seems an impossible hope when pressure remains high over europe and nothing to force it
  19. Jan 87
    looks like a pants ECM tonight so far
  20. Jan 87
    GFS Control looking better than the op so far with the phasing
  21. Jan 87
    control is good so far
  22. Jan 87
    another attempt at blocking just in time for xmas
  23. Jan 87
    An improvement on the 00z op, north keeps the cold, would take much for the phasing to be further south
  24. Jan 87
    Seems like a classic Euro models vs North American again But lets see if the UKM and ECM flip into line this evening. Either way, a week long cold snap is the best we should expect in this country, Anything else is a bonus
  25. Jan 87
    You just know ECM is going to poop on the parade. Never seem to get a full set of good runs!
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