Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

Thundery wintry showers

Site forecast team
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    15,710

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    30

 Content Type 

Blog Entries posted by Thundery wintry showers

  1. Thundery wintry showers
    On cold-related deaths, I argue that they should not be cited as a reason why people should prefer mild.

    Cold-related deaths reduce when, in isolation, we have a winter that is mild relative to the average for recent years. But when we have a succession of mild winters, people get used to a milder average, and less prepared for a given degree of cold than before. Thus, in the short term milder winters mean less deaths, but in the long term they do not.

    Interestingly it's similar with snow- snow causes a lot more disruption in London and Paris than it does in Moscow, simply because it is much rarer in those cities and so the residents are less prepared for it.

    This doesn't just have relevance to weather type preferences. It is also a strong counter to the argument that we should welcome global warming because it will reduce cold-related deaths in winter. In practice the evidence just doesn't bear this out.
  2. Thundery wintry showers
    Well, quite a quiet period in some ways. I've been busy applying for PhDs, and had a couple of interviews at Manchester and UEA- I'll be giving more details of what's been going on when I get confirmation of whether I have funding or not for any of the projects. Hoping to get funding this year, or else it's another year of hunting for what limited employment there is in this region in the fields I'm after.
    According to the law of society, I'm supposed to be obsessed by money and thus getting any old job just to get paid, but at the moment it's not a major issue; the main one for me is getting advanced in an environment/meteorology/research type career.
    Other than that, been messing around, doing some oil paintings (many of which were weather-related, including a "Spanish plume" hazy scene, a picture of a cumulonimbus from that snowy ENE'ly that never was around 22 February 2007, and a stormy sunset. Some non-weather-related pictures too. Also, I've been playing quite a bit of chess.
    Saw the programme on the Global Warming Swindle- I think I made my views on it fairly clear in the environment thread- a good summary of the flaws in the views of the extremists who support anthropogenic global warming (AGW), but not a major challenge to the science behind the theory of AGW. I'd quite like to see a programme on TV that takes a more intermediate stance, along similar lines to Philip Eden's books relating to the subject, rather than focusing on one side or the other. It's hard to argue with the notion that humans are probably affecting the climate to some degree- even if you take out the CO2 issue, there's aircraft contrails, methane, old aftereffects of CFCs, deforestation, albedo changes etc.
  3. Thundery wintry showers
    I am preparing for my holiday in France with my parents, should be going away tomorrow and coming back on Monday 23 July. The region in question is near the Massif Central, more or less in central France, though will be spending the two weeks of the holiday in slightly different places. Most likely I will be spending much of the holiday lazing around, playing table tennis etc, consuming crusty French-stick bread and ice-creams. My holidays in France in the last three years were all very enjoyable so hopefully this one won't be an exception!
    Meanwhile the weather here in Cleadon has been uncharacteristically exciting- until last month I hadn't recorded more than three thunder-days in a month, yet today makes it four on the trot! Just as remarkably, I have heard thunder on 8 days out of the last 22. I don't like dull unsettled weather, but I'll take these convective "sunshine and showers" days anytime.
    That said, while sunshine amounts have been okay here over 1-4 July, it appears that this emphatically hasn't been the case over much of the rest of Britain- although to be fair we did fare particularly badly sunshine wise during June, so it's merely redressing the balance a bit!
    The weather outlook for Cleadon for the next two weeks is dreadful- the exciting weather set to end tomorrow, with lots of dull wet Atlantic dross to come. Although it looks pretty unsettled for central France too, I'll be hoping that we miss most of the dull wet dross and get sun, showers and thunderstorms instead.
  4. Thundery wintry showers
    It is often considered that as we pass adolescence, we become old enough to decide for ourselves, therefore we cease to be influenced by social pressure and we never follow the crowd; supposedly only "weak" people follow the crowd. This argument is often used to dismiss the idea that any form of social pressure can be a factor in people's decisions, so if a person makes a negative choice the person gets 100% of the blame, end of story.
    To my mind, that idea is flawed. Yes, we make decisions for ourselves, but social factors attach 'strings' to our decisions. For example, if I have a choice between X and Y, but the real choice is "choose X and be rejected, or choose Y and be accepted", if I then choose Y, it does not follow that the external social 'strings' (rejection vs acceptance) didn't influence my decision. Also, saying that we are all influenced by society is not necessarily a criticism; if we were never influenced, we would never learn from anyone.
    I'd agree that only "weak" people are easily influenced into making negative decisions, but even strong-minded people can be swayed, if strong enough social 'strings' are applied to their decision making processes. It's probably fair to say that, as a general rule, the more social pressure is required to 'sway' someone, the stronger the person, but there's no such thing as a person with an infinite 'stubborn-ness' threshold.
    So what sorts of social pressure influence us? It ranges across a variety of spectrums, from individual peer pressure, manipulation and outright bullying, to social norms representing codes of behaviour or belief that are generally accepted without question, and where it is often socially unacceptable to deviate from them. In larger-scale forms, people are often also influenced by the weight of consensus (if everyone believes/does it, it must surely be 'right'!)
    Even the "we are who we are" concept cannot accurately be used to dismiss the influences of social pressure. People learn to conform from an early age, particularly in the school years, and this helps to mould our personalities as we get older. In all of these cases, I include myself under this bracket; I like to think of myself as an independent thinker but I, too, can be 'swayed' given enough pressure in that direction.
    I think it's important that this preconception is challenged, because in reality, many problems do have social pressure as a root factor. At a small-scale level, people can manipulate and bully others into making negative decisions; it makes no sense to me that the bully should be absolved of all responsibility on the grounds that "a strong-minded person could withstand an infinitely high amount of social pressure". This is relevant to many issues, such as school bullying, employer abuse of working hours (manipulating employees into 'wanting' to work 70 hours per week) and friendship issues (if a jealous third party tries to break apart a friendship, a 'true' friend is expected to withstand an infinite amount of manipulation, such that the third party never gets any of the blame and the friend can never get any support)
    Negative social norms also contribute; people often make negative decisions based on the blind acceptance of codes of belief or behaviour that are passed down the generations. For instance, take discrimination against women in the early 1900s; I'm pretty certain that the campaigners had to tackle and break down various social norms before they could make any significant headway against the issue. Accepting that people made their own decisions, and absolving social norms of any responsibility, would almost have been tatamount to resignation, and a 'that's life' attitude to the sexism.
    So, we need to recognise that social pressure can be a factor- in order to enable it to be addressed!
  5. Thundery wintry showers
    I was pleased to see Obama get into power even though I have doubts about some of his policies. The alternatives were a continuation of the current status quo in the USA- economic liberalism and social conservatism- and in particular trying to shore up holes in the economy in the short term only to suffer greater in the long term. And I can't stand social conservative policies, so Sarah Palin was never an attractive proposition as far as I was concerned. For once, the USA are prepared to try something different, and while it may not work out very well, chances it will work out better than keeping the status quo would have.

    I have generally downplayed the significance of his skin colour, but it will certainly set a precedent that will reduce the chances of skin colour being an issue in future political battles in the USA.

    Related to my rant about authoritarianism a couple of blogs ago: it is not the fault of the "Liberal Lefties" that it is happening. Firstly, it is not the result of socialist ideologies. The idea that things that aren't work/health/safety-related are non-essential and disposable (meaning a large percentage of personal liberty) is an economics-driven view of the world, it is not left of centre by any stretch of the imagination.

    In addition, straight from the definition of authoritarianism, any policy that punishes the many because of the few is authoritarian. Not only that, some of these nanny state policies help to reinforce traditional values- which is usually branded conservative policymaking. Take the way men are unable to interact with kids these days without being accused of being sexual abusers, except if the kids are deemed to be in their families. That sort of double standard invariably has its roots in traditional family values.

    In short, this is not a "liberal lefties" problem, this is a problem stemming from conservatives- particularly social conservatives (now you see why I didn't want Sarah Palin in)
  6. Thundery wintry showers
    At the University of East Anglia we have Wellbeing Week.

    Today, the main restaurant Zest appeared to cancel the roast dinner it normally provides on a Wednesday, providing "healthier" alternatives like rice, chicken, new potatoes etc.
    Now, since when was a roast dinner unhealthy, and burger and chips (which it had on offer yesterday, as is normal for Tuesdays) healthy?


  7. Thundery wintry showers
    I've been singing Facebook's praises over the last few months, as it's enabled me to get back in touch with a large assortment of people, some of whom I thought I'd never get in touch with again. But it's not all roses.
    Some idiots have been spamming the site recently, so they've brought in anti-spam filters. Which is all very well, but some of the spam filtering is punishing a lot of responsible behaviour. I got warned last night, presumably for one of the following:
    1. Posting twice on someone's Wall in 6 hours, in both cases in reply to their post,
    2. Posting two messages with vaguely similar content (the spam filter might have counted that under "repeated posts")
    3. Mentioning an application that I have (the other person was discussing it with me, but the spam filter may have assumed I was spamming the person's account by "advertising" it)
    I've backed up my contacts to cut my losses for if I do get banned, but it was a big scare to be threatened with a permanent ban for doing nothing wrong. However, it's perhaps more symptomatic of a general issue- you can't take any luxury for granted, because if a few idiots abuse it, blanket restrictions on it are likely to be deemed necessary because "that's life". However, I'd have to be unlucky to fall foul of this again, as it seems only a tiny percentage of legitimate users do so.
    If Facebook dies a death in the near future, chances are it will be because of an over-reaction against idiots. If it isn't through too much anti-spam control, it may happen due to idiots abusing it for identity theft (bringing about such stringent privacy control that it becomes useless for social netowrking), or it may be banned/severely restricted because a minority become addicted to it. Addiction is a genuine problem, but most people I know just use it to keep in touch with people and regain lost friendships, essentially as a more interactive/sociable alternative to just emailing them.
  8. Thundery wintry showers
    An updated version of my "Winter Snow Events" analysis will be uploaded to N-W over the coming few weeks, based on a wider range of sources and overall casting the net much wider. There has been considerable "inflation" in the values for each season as a result, the average "snow score" has increased from the low 20s into the low 30s.

    Some brief (provisional) details to get the ball rolling:
    [list]* The winters prior to 1988 have been upgraded relative to the 1990s and 2000s (as I missed some snow events from the earlier years in my previous analysis) such that the period 1971-76 comes out with comparable amounts of snow to some of the winters since 1987. In particular 1972/73 came out with a similar total to 2003/04 and 2004/05. However, that 6-year period still had slightly less snow overall than the period 1988-2009.
    * Winter 2008/09 was only slightly above the 20th century average for snow, yet it was the snowiest winter overall since 1995/96, and the second snowiest since 1985/86.
    * All measures of "snowiness" have their issues, and the main issue with my method is that it measures occurrences of lying snow events rather than duration of snow cover. For example, by this measure 1978/79 was a snowier winter than 1962/63. The snowiest winter of the 20th century appears to have been the other famous one, in 1946/47.
    * The most snowless winter appears to have been 1991/92.
    [/list]
  9. Thundery wintry showers
    Here's an exploration of various possibilities on issues relating to religions and spirituality. I have some clear-cut beliefs on this, but as you will see, plenty of areas where I believe that the truth could be anything across a wide range of possibilities.

    First of all, I don't think there is a god of the kind that the Bible described, that created the world in six days, Adam and Eve etc. There are far too many contradictions, far too many scientific discoveries re. evolution that cannot be realistically challenged while maintaining a literal interpretation of the Bible, etc. For those who are interested in this disproof, check out this link which inspired this blog entry: [url="http://alphacoursereview.wordpress.com/"]http://alphacoursereview.wordpress.com/[/url]
    This blog entry is remarkably similar to the experiences I've had with fundamentalist Christian types in the past, which in turn caused me to reject the religion.

    But does the above prove that there is no greater power of any kind, a generic "god" of some kind? I don't think so. Yes, many people like to believe in life after death, that there is a "guardian angel" or god or something watching over them and helping them, and that supernatural things exist. It is a comforting way of thinking, and from experience, I also think this is why many children are fond of the concept of Santa Claus. But that doesn't mean that nothing of the sort exists. There might be some kind of extra spirituality that we can't see or hear. People could be using these comforting thoughts to try and assemble these percieved paranormal experiences into something comforting, and perhaps that's where a lot of the religions originally came from. But maybe, just maybe, there might be something real behind at least some of it.

    An alternative possibility, which understandably gets up many people's backsides as it attacks comfort zones (I know this, as it attacks quite a few of mine!) but shouldn't be discounted, is that there really is no life after death, no existence beyond what we know. That said, one major reason why I often get defensive when people preach this view isn't that it attacks comfort zones, but rather that many atheists tend to preach with a lot of the same narrow-mindedness and arroagance that many fundamentalist Christians do.

    And another alternative that few consider- it may be that there is indeed an afterlife, and/or extra "beings" of greater existence that we don't know about- but that the reality is a lot more mundane than the religions suggest. "God" could be to humans as humans are to ants, in terms of intellectual understanding of things that our brains are too limited to grasp. Getting confused? Well, it serves to illustrate that when you start thinking about this sort of thing with an open mind... well, the possibilities are near-endless!
  10. Thundery wintry showers
    In the current climate of negativity, I think it's worth noting that while a lot of negative things are happening and we should do something about them, there are also some very positive things happening.

    1. More recognition of environmental issues. I have to admit, I don't like the current orthodoxy of "pleasurable things are non-essential, work is essential", resulting in a risk of a general "cutting-down" causing decline of recreation and an even more work-oriented society, but at least we're understanding that the current maximum consumption isn't sustainable, and hopefully, in the future, better ways of cutting down will become accepted and implemented.

    2. More tolerance of individuality. 50 years ago, it was a lot harder to be an individual. Yes, there is still large scope for improvement, but there's a lot more scope for people- especially women- to be their own individuals, and lead their own lives, and make their own choices. The decline of things like racism, homophobia etc. are other good examples.

    3. More tolerance of friendships. These days, particularly in the younger generations, keeping in touch is becoming the norm, and forming networks of friends is also the norm. There is a greater tendency for people to support their friends and stand by them in the face of adversity, and it's less acceptable for families to control people's friendships. The rise of platonic male-female friendships also helps towards reducing the extent of sexism.

    4. A slow, but sure, move away from judging employees on the amount of time they sacrifice for work. The traditional "nine to five" culture is still going strong, but increasing numbers of employers are experimenting with things like allowing flexible working, work from home, and performance-related pay. I strongly believe that this kind of thing will reduce inefficiency and require less employee self-sacrifice to generate a given rate of productivity.

    5. England have a greater chance of qualifying for the World Cup next time around.
  11. Thundery wintry showers
    I would like to have an opportunity to take a photograph of proper snow using a digital camera. The last time I saw more than a few granules on the ground was on 26 February 2004- just before I got my first "digicam".
    For there to be an opportunity for snow photography tomorrow, those showers drifting down the North Sea need to come inland early tomorrow morning. The GFS has it progged to happen at around 9am which is pretty ideal, but things can easily change. Another issue is that my camera's lens only half-retracted when the battery ran out, so hopefully it hasn't knacked the mechanism, which would in turn trigger those dreaded E18 errors.
    Waiting with baited breath. If those showers in the North Sea were Weebl and Bob, I would be putting plenty of pie in my garden to entice them over.
  12. Thundery wintry showers
    [url="http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7755641.stm"]http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7755641.stm[/url]

    I would not take that survey as gospel simply because three of its four indices only reflect the breakdown of so-called [i]family[/i] communities (marriages, people living in rented accommodation, being in it for less than a year). The one about living alone is a more complete, but still far from foolproof, measure of loneliness.

    This is strongly reflected in its point about increased student populations contributinig to loneliness. Er hello, most students are far from "lonely", in fact many students have the best social lives of anyone in the country! Most don't have families close at hand, but their networks of friendships are often much wider-ranging than is the case in traditional family units, who often socialise with a very limited circle of people.

    Social networking sites, society groups, employee lists etc. all provide communities that were relatively lacking 30 years ago. In addition it is much easier to travel to meet people than it was 30 years ago, even when the credit crunch is factored into account.

    In short, it's far from being as bleak as the article suggests because while traditional sources of communities have declined, new ones have sprung up to offset this.
  13. Thundery wintry showers
    I had two projects to hand in on the 18th November- one of which was a Project Proposal for studying convective cloud initiation (a bit technical I'm afraid, but very much down one of my main interest areas)
    Went to a couple of parties the last couple of days. I nearly didn't go to either of them because it was difficult to find where they were, but Friday's was particularly good once I got there. I saw some of the people connected to those on my course- close friends, sisters, boyfriends etc and got on generally with them. It also helped that some of the pubs were open until late so I didn't have to leave until 0:30am (well it was either that or go to a nightclub) Hangovers? No way, I don't drink anywhere near enough alcohol- I consumed one Bacardi Breezer and one Vodka & Orange, and that was my lot for the last two nights!
    One thing about Leeds is that they seem to put out burger stalls at early hours in the morning. I have been tempted twice so far, including the night of the 18th/19th.
    I may have sung Lancaster's praises in previous years, but I have to say that for me, so far Leeds appears to be considerably better in almost every area of consideration.
    And now onto the sunshine. My main associations with November are anticyclonic gloom and mild damp windy weather, so to have six days on the trot of non-stop sunshine is almost surreal. I may not be a SAD sufferer, but there's no doubt that I tend to feel much happier and more contented with life when the sun is frequently shining.
    I remember November 1996 and early November 2001 being quite sunny where I was at the time, but nothing like what we have now. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that parts of NE England might have more than twice the amount of sunshine they had in October.
  14. Thundery wintry showers
    Well, my life has pretty much stagnated recently- being at home with lots of time on one's hands is great initially, but after a while I feel that I'm not getting as much out of life as I could do.
    The weather meanwhile has been ridiculously cloudy here; hardly a glimmer of sunshine. There have been a few showers and storms this month, but it has been difficult to see what's going on as there's always been North Sea "haar" in the way.
    It makes my blood boil on days when the rest of the country is having sunshine and showers/storms, Cleadon is dry but dull with coastal low cloud and temperatures several degrees lower, and I hear that my area is being very lucky with the weather, because at least it isn't raining. Looks like my birthday on the 22nd could turn out to be one of those days, if the low pressure ends up as far south as the GFS is currently showing.
    Have two weeks in France coming up in July, which should be good as I enjoyed my last three summer holidays there. As for the PhD, currently sorting out accommodation; so far things are going okay. Whatever the pros and cons of the Norwich climate, it's bound to be much more interesting than the weather we get up here. And of course, if I'm doing a PhD my life should be a lot busier.
  15. Thundery wintry showers
    Going to France for two weeks tomorrow- one week in the Dordogne and another in the eastern side of the Loire region.
    I had a great birthday this year, but things seem to have gone downhill a bit since then, with many people leaving and social events becoming very few and far between. As I go through life, I'm becoming more and more convinced that the main factors influencing my state of well-being are the amount of social interaction and the scope to do things that I enjoy. Workload doesn't seem to be as large a factor, provided that there is scope to play hard as well as work hard.
    So in many ways this is great timing for a 2-week break; maybe my time in Leeds will pick up again for those last six weeks before I hand my project in. I'll have to take my thesis document with me to make sure that I don't end up overworked when I come back!
    For some reason one of my favourite French phrases is "Il y a des averses". It is French for "there are showers" (i.e. showers of precipitation. In the Dordogne region these have a reputation for producing severe electrical storms, but only time will tell.
  16. Thundery wintry showers
    So today was my last day for a while at the Climatic Research Unit at UEA. It feels strange, as normally in this kind of situation I'm leaving a place potentially forever, but on this occasion it's only for six months, and then I'm back again for at least another year and a third (depending on when I get the PhD finished!)

    The intervening period, after the Christmas break in Geordieland, will be spent at the Met Office in Exeter. It will be quite a significant change in environment, so thoughts of both anticipation and apprehension reign. I have no regrets about choosing this tied studentship though- six months at the MetO will leave me with many important contacts and some good experience of working outside of the purely academic environment, plus as a meteorologist you can't really ask for a better company to provide this opportunity than the Met Office.

    However, be warned that I will have to be, er, quite tight lipped about certain things as the security is very high, so I'm told, because of the MetO still being part of the Ministry of Defence. Certainly the security clearance took a while.
  17. Thundery wintry showers
    I didn't get my weather records until today, so no post in the October stats thread.

    In any case, Cleadon's stats for October 2008, with deviation from estimated 1971-2000 averages:

    Mean Max: 13.3 (+0.2)
    Mean Min: 6.0 (-1.0)
    Mean Temp: 9.6 (-0.5)

    Highest max: 18.8 (10th)
    Lowest max: 6.1 (28th)

    Highest min: 11.6 (20th)
    Lowest min: -1.6 (30th)

    Air frosts: 2

    Days of thunder: 0
    Days of sleet or snow: 0
    Days of fog: 0
    Days of hail: 3

    Precipitation 32mm (57%)


    This was a dry sunny month- and the first dry month since May! There was a notable cold snap near the beginning of the month, with a max of just 10.3C on the 3rd, and a minimum of 1.6C on the 4th, while the weather was mostly dry with sunshine. The second week was warm with variable cloud cover, then a fairly mixed third week followed with near-average temperatures.

    The cold snap at the end of the month produced the lowest October maximum temperature in records going back to 1993- no previous October day has failed to reach 7C. Although the area missed out on the snowfalls that many other areas had on the 28th and 29th, some dramatic showers overnight 30th/31st produced large hail and a temporary covering of hail- much of this lasted through to dawn on the 31st from about the Tyne Tunnel westwards, but it melted at the coastal strip due to higher temperatures.

    Like in the 8/9 November 2001 cold snap I often refer to as a benchmark for dramatic weather in Cleadon, temperatures were all over the place. They would stabilise at 6-7C in clear intervals, but fell abruptly during hail showers, falling as low as 3.3C at one point.

    Shame I was down in Norwich and missed it all! But then again Norwich was by far the thunderiest place in the country in August, so you can't win 'em all I suppose!

    Edit on 16 November: it is also highly likely to have been the sunniest October since 2003, in common with much of the rest of the country.
  18. Thundery wintry showers
    My Winter Snow Events file has been updated to cover Winter 2006/07 (I think it's unlikely that we will get any snow in the first half of May). With a score of just 11, Winter 2006/07 was the most snowless, along with 1997/98, since 1991/92.
    For those not 'in the know', the Winter Snow Events was largely inspired by L.Bonacina's 1875-1975 (recently extended to 2004) categorisation of past winters. I attempted more of a numerical/statistical analysis of the snowiness of past winters, aiming to include every snow event that occurred across lowland Britain for each winter, and awarding each snow event a score from 1-5 depending on how widespread and intense it was. The snow events for each winter are added together to give the winter's "score".
    Winter_Snow_Events.doc
  19. Thundery wintry showers
    One week further on, and somewhat surprisingly, I finished the Doom 3 level episode- today! The penultimate level took three months to create (although I spent a lot of that time doing things other than level editing), then the last level took just one week.
    Thus I should even get some tinkering done with the earlier levels before I go to Norwich.
    Otherwise have enjoyed two nice sunny days, after the persistent cloud cover of the past week. Yesterday had a nice meal at an Italian restaurant and got pretty stuffed. The Bank Holiday weekend looks like a 'sunny intervals' fest, on the eastern periphery of our high.
  20. Thundery wintry showers
    Just watched a few more of those Tom & Jerry episodes I got for my birthday. The cartoons themselves are fine, but there's been some annoying 'censoring' of them going on, especially the redubbing of Mammy Two-Shoes (I grew up on the uncensored versions that the BBC showed until 2000 and the uncensored VHS editions from the 80s and 90s). As it happens, the versions I have are the best available, and remarkably, there are no uncensored versions available any more.
    Yes, if some find the originals racially offensive, by all means release censored versions alongside the originals, but phasing out the distribution of the originals really is a case of 'political correctness gone mad'; a large majority of people didn't find them offensive.
    Okay, so maybe the 'blackface gags' were originally intended as racist jokes (which is totally unacceptable, but more a symptom of the way society was in the 1940s than anything else). However, there's a perfectly non-racist reason for people appearing in blackface following an explosion- I always assumed until recently that they went black because they were coated in charcoal. If we're to censor that sort of thing, should we do that with all cartoons that feature explosions, and should we censor the burning of toast because the fact that burnt toast is black could be used by bigots to perpetuate racism?
    I say all of the above as someone who is a big advocate of equality of opportunity and who despises discrimination of any form. But the real problem stems from people judging each other by stereotypes rather than as individuals, and embedding such stereotypes into social norms (such that they are accepted without question), and it's this that we need to be tackling. Most jokes about stereotypes, TV showings of stereotypes etc. are actually harmless as long as they aren't taken seriously (and Tom & Jerry is one of the most non-serious cartoons in existence).
    This obsession with "avoiding causing offence" is only scraping the surface of the problem, and is posing a real threat to freedom of speech and expression. I mean, in future will it be politically incorrect to like snow because it might offend those who have suffered bereavment of elderly people who died?
    Rant over.
  21. Thundery wintry showers
    I've had some discussions over on the environmnental thread where I argued for reducing the extent to which our society revolves around money and economics, but didn't qualify it particularly well (it may have sounded to some like I was arguing for abolishing capitalism, which is a common agenda among some environmental circles).
    I do think that in moderation, capitalism is a very good thing. But the problem at the moment is that most policymakers tend to consider only the economic perspective on issues, and ignore all other perspectives. For example:

    Developers building mass housing in the South East using supply and demand economics
    Greenfield sites and flood plains preferred over brownfield sites because it maximises short term profit
    Public transport companies providing minimum service for maximum profit
    Deliberately building appliances with a limited shelf-life to make people keep shelling out, maximising profit, consuming a lot of excess resources
    Councils reluctant to install energy saving streetlights until it will provide short term economic gain
    Pleasurable things are considered unnecessary, work is considered necessary

    What I'm thinking is that we need to see factors other than economics, including social and environmental factors, being assigned value to a much greater extent than they are nowadays. Even if money is "most important" it doesn't mean other factors should be ignored. The problem with relying upon free markets to bring this about is that, ultimately, they won't. They will continue to do whatever is most profitable. Thus, we probably need some kind of government incentivising for them to start changing emphasis away from being focused only on the one consideration.
  22. Thundery wintry showers
    Well, although there's been a pleasing absence of it on this forum this year, I see that the "ban fireworks except public displays" brigade are out in earnest among the population.

    [Disclaimer: I do not subscribe to the views below, by the way!]
    Viewing the world from the eyes of the Authoritarian, while we're on with it, we can also:
    [list]
    [*]Ban pleasure driving because of a few boy racers,
    [*]Incrementally force a slow but sure reduction of traffic speeds as close to zero as we can get away with because a few idiots drive too fast,
    [*]Ban computer games because a few idiots let them take over their lives,
    [*]Ban men from befriending children because a few idiots molest them,
    [*]Ban male-female friendships because of potential for affairs and stalking,
    [*]Ban social networking sites because men might use them to befriend women or children (see above two bans) or steal ID,
    [*]Ban personal cameras because a few idiots photograph public transport for terrorist purposes,
    [*]and so on.
    [/list]
    ...by extension of the same lines of argument as for banning fireworks. The benefits are outweighed by the downsides, given that human pleasure doesn't come into it because it's non-essential, and that only matters relating to work, health and safety are essential.

    Clearly, persecuting and demonising innocent people for daring to enjoy themselves is a sign of being hard on offenders, the issue of idiots going underground can be tackled by banning the alternative avenues of abuse (rinse and repeat until we have no recreational activities left to ban), and Ian's ridiculous suggestion of differentiating abuse from responsibility won't work because it isn't flawless (you can't always tell). Because it's not as if mass prohibition isn't flawless or anything.

    In addition we can tackle global warming by demonising the people that pollute. By making life as difficult for those evil motorists as we can (this fits in nicely with the authoritarian measures to legislate for the idiots who drive recklessly as well!) we can create a splendid balanced transport system at the lowest common denominator, alienate motorists, and achieve a 1% reduction in carbon dioxide emissions.

    Isn't authoritarianism wonderful! ... er... not?
  23. Thundery wintry showers
    Thanks to everyone who gave me birthday wishes. I had a pretty good day- celebrated in style at the Met Office, and had some good messages on here and on Facebook- I got a subscription to Chess magazine as well for my birthday (I've subscribed to it before but had stopped- but given my record at the MetO, 8 wins 4 draws 0 losses, it was appropriate to restart).

    I'm getting quite excited about the upcoming week's weather. It may end up a bit humid for my liking, but otherwise as far as I'm concerned it looks like being my idea of summer bliss- highs in the mid 20s by day, plenty of sunshine, and chances of thundery downpours in late afternoon and evening. It will be a good way, weather-wise, to round off my stay in Exeter if this comes off.

    I would be pretty "narked" about the upcoming spell if I was on the Tyneside coast- no chances of thundery downpours there, and probably not much chance of sunshine either from Thursday onwards- but it doesn't matter because I'm not there!
  24. Thundery wintry showers
    After complaining that Norwich missed out on the remarkable October event (when even Cleadon got some excitement- lying hail overnight 30/31 October) could we be in for a spell where I make up for it big-time?

    Ever since I first came to Norwich, one of the things I most wanted to see was a full-on northerly outbreak from the Arctic in November, knowing very well that Norfolk lies right in the firing line of the showers drifting down the North Sea, and that the strong contrast between cold airmasses and the warm sea can generate very intense shower activity at this time of year.

    Unless I'm dreaming, I can see not one, but two such northerly incursions that are projected to happen within the next week by all three of the main models (ECMWF, UKMO, GFS). The first one looks like it may even give some snow with Norwich being a little bit inland, while the second looks good for a wintry mix (probably rain, hail and sleet) but with some exciting convection. There are precedents- similar setups on 17 November 1995, 17-18 November 1999 and 8 November 2001 not only brought wintry showers to Norwich, but also brought thunderstorms.

    Not surprisingly I'm getting those camera batteries charged up for the weekend. If this potential for dramatic weather is fulfilled I won't mind missing out on that remarkable October snowfall- as these November northerlies are what I've been waiting for.
  25. Thundery wintry showers
    May as well start writing some blog weather forecasts; partly because many other members of the forecast team are doing a similar thing, and also partly as a means of keeping myself up-to-date with events.
    21 April: A very hazy day across much of the country, with some patchy rain affecting Scotland, Ireland and to a lesser extent northern England under a rather moist south-westerly flow. South-eastern areas should experience the most sunshine. A warm day over England & Wales with highs touching 20C in the south, and around 15C across northern England, but cooler across Scotland with highs of 11-14C widespread.
    22 April: A weakening band of frontal rain will move south-eastwards, with continued warm south-westerly winds. South and east of a line extending from Hull to Shrewsbury should be warm and dry with some sunshine, temps again reaching 20C in the south, and rather hazy. Much of northern England will be dull and wet all day. Drier brighter weather and highs of 14-16C will work its way southwards across Scotland.
    23 April: It looks like eastern areas will have a mostly dry sunny day, but with cloud amounts increasing from the west during the day, and rain spreading into western Britain by the end of the day, with freshening SSW winds. 20C will again be the high across south-east England, with 15-18C across most other parts, maintaining the above-average temperatures.
    24 April: The rain will linger in eastern areas, with another pulse moving north-east across central & southern England during the afternoon; highs of 15-18C in the warm muggy southeast, 13-15C to the north and west of the rainband. Western Scotland and Ireland will have sun and showers, intervening areas dry but rather cloudy.
    25-27 April: Sunshine and a few showers, and slightly above-average temperatures (12-16C) will give way to dry sunny settled weather as high pressure asserts itself; there is a good chance of this settled weather lasting into May and producing a heatwave at the beginning of the month.
×
×
  • Create New...