damianslaw

Summer Sun A hold as expected, we might scrape up to 9.7 degrees given tomorrow looking mild, we shall see, but my guess is 9.6 degrees as I predicted, not claiming this was scientific evidence based!

The mini drought is over, after 9 predominantly dry days the rain is back. A miserable Monday, chilly, max 10.5 degrees.

This thread fast becoming a summer chat thread, there is a separate thread for discussing summer prospects. Alas with only May left I expect this thread to become more one of reflecting on the Spring just gone. So far it has by and large from a sunshine and dry perspective been a poor one, will May make up for this. Typically we see sunshine levels near their annual peak in May and lengthy dry periods can be a strong feature of the month along with the first notable warmth of the year, low to mid 20s can easily be achieved under large high pressure systems directly aloft, under modest upper air temps, don't need southerly plumes. I'm not gaining a sense of any prolonged very dry very warm weather anytime soon, but things can quickly change.

Probably hit the low point now, although might drop to 9.4 degrees tomorrow as maxes today have been preety low. A good bet finish is 9.6 degrees, which happens to be my prediction!, not an especially above average month, but very comfortably so yet again, 1.7 degree above 61-90 mean, more than 1.5 degree above which seem par for the course nowadays and nothing special.

Yet again, just the slighest spit and spot of rain, but essentially dry. Another chilly one, maxed just about 11 degrees under a cold stiff wind. Sun trying to burst through. Next week increasingly likely to bring first taste of proper warmth of the season, mid to high teens in any sunshine will feel very pleasant indeed. We also lose the risk of frosts. The last 10 days have been very frosty and stunted growth somewhat. May is around the corner and its full steam ahead growth wise hereon in. Great moment in the year with May and June (the best months of the year in all ways in my view!) beckoning and hopes of a good warm fine summer.

Just an observation about the near-term, a low pressure system that developed to our south is currently pushing north through east half of UK it then splits into two into a broad cyclonic low tomorrow, advects west then sinks back south to where it developed. Not often we see such synoptics, but if ever a time of year for low pressure to track on abnormal pathways its now.

Quite unusual to see a system track south to north to our east, leaving much of west half of region dry at least. Looking to my west there are blue skies and its very clear. After the endless rain of recent months, we have had by and large 8 dry days on the trot, and today could be the 9th.

Summer Sun As expected another 0.2 degree drop, probably fall by another 0.1 or 0.2 degrees todays readings, then a hold tomorrow thanks to milder minima.

Faintest of spits and spots in the air, radar showing light blue only, not expecting anything much. Its still early in the year, in a months time under similiar synoptics I'd be expecting far more convective activity aided by warmer temps. Alas a fine albeit cloudy day. Great visibility and ideal walking weather, getting out and doing exercise without breaking a sweat instantly, temps a cool 10.5 degrees. Tomorrow remains uncertain, where will the frontal rain track..

WYorksWeather Yes there comes a turning point about third week of May, by then the sun is as strong as in late July and even if temps are mid teens at best under light winds and full sun it feels every bit summer to me by then thanks to the long light. Same with third week of Nov feels we are plunged firmly into winter thanks to weak sun and low light even if temps still into the teens.

Well im not quite sure how we are missing the showers, Ive run the radar past 2-3 hrs and by slim margins we've stayed dry. Im always perplexed how convection builds out of nowhere, how showers can fizzle in situ as they approach but then 2 miles down the road a mass of convection builds. Its that kind of set up. The chaos of weather. Believe it or not we are on our 7th consecutive day of trace rain, must have been one of driest places last 7 days.

A run of fine clear evenings here is resulting in extended daylight until 9pm and later. We are hurtling headstrong into the lightest part of the year, evenings in May have same light levels almost akin to July and give a summer feel to proceedings. Its remarkable how the feel of everything changes from now through to late May, which by then is near peak light, it also adds to a sense must make plans and the most of the light, it will be the solstice before we know it.

Probably be on 9.6 degrees for 26th, 9.5 or 9.4 degrees 27th, then a hold 28th, and possible 0.1-0.2 rise 29th and 30th. Finish likely 9.5 to 9.6 degrees I feel, outside chance 9.4 or 9.7.

Windermere rain shield, can see lots of green and yellow on radar all around me, and showers in the air, yet we are still dry, only a matter of time before heavens open possibly. Its a chilly 10 degrees, another widespread air frost tonight . Turning into a notably frosty cold spell.

Cumbria cold pole synoptics, light northerly drift and cold uppers overhead recipe for freezing nights. Shap as low as -6.2 degrees. These are the synoptics that in winter would deliver ice days and widespread double digit minus mins. Alas its late April. Despite lots of sun out there, the air is notably cold.

Azazel April and May have the prospect of summer to come and for this reason I always feel are the most positive of months.

Suspect a notably cool CET value for today. Max temp anywhere 13 degrees at Shoreham Airport, widespread low single digits mins. A widespread frost tonight as well. Colder than many a mean temp in Feb this year! Hope people have not been lulled into potting tender plants out early..

Kentspur A high anomaly to our west in May would usually bring a chill but bright/sunny northerly airflow, western parts would see the sunniest conditions including the Lake District. In such set ups the air is often sparkling clear and indeed brings superb conditions here. Obviously troughs can become embedded in true arctic shots but rarely potent in May, perhaps a few showers. Even better is a more NE flow that can bring warmth to the west whilst the east is plagued by cloud, a common set up in May. I always say mid April to mid June best time to visit the Lake District. Back to the models, its all a bit unclear how next week will pan out, signs of the atlantic trough reappearing to the west to pull in a cloud dankfest to west parts once the milder easterly is out of the way, then we await to see if an atlantic ridge develops again or we maintain more notable heights direct to the north. Either way no heatwave on the cards, nor deluge, all quite benign typical stuff for this juncture in the year.

Will be interesting comparing the 1-14 CET and the 15-30 CET. The last couple of days will bring a warm up, but certainly the 15-28 mean will be comparably below the 1-14 mean.

Turning into a notably cool spell, and we could end below 9.5 degrees.

Its been fine and dry here so far today, we seem to have a shower shield around us. No evidence of any rain in early hours either. Just checked the radar and surprised at the amount of shower activity given how fine it is here. Sometimes you strike lucky, indeed we've enjoyed a run of dry days since Saturday. It is chilly air, lots of sun but failed to reach 11 degrees.

SunSean Shap bottom, but the last 2-3 days have been quite sunny. A very poor month for sunshine on the cards.

Metwatch My 9.6 looks not far off, first time in ages I might be at least 0.5 degrees within final figure. Certainly a contrasting month CET wise.

Iceaxecrampon I know Keldas well, the bluebells are a treat. I remember visiting them in mid May 2020, north slopes and they were in bloom, whereas they were barely out same time 2021. Another fine day here, turning into a decent dry spell in the Lake District and we look best placed to see least rain in England in days ahead..As said this is the lakeland dry season, all quite normal to see eastern and south parts plagued by cloud this time of year whilst we bask in sunshine. Chilly frosty nights at present.

One of those occasions which is most likely to occur in the second half of Spring than any other time of year, when much of Cumbria sees the best English conditions, Wales, N Ireland and West Scotland often the same. Thanks to the influence of high pressure to the west, we received virtually nil traces of rain from the warm front, it was all to our east, and today we have sat in a dry spot, albeit cloudy, but also quite bright, high level cloud, no wind and pleasant temps close to 14 degrees. Always say mid April to late June best time to visit Lake District!