london-snow

Overnight rain cleared by dawn. Currently sunny spells with a temperature of 7.4c.

Its a bit like a horse race commentary with the meto - Number 1 stands a good chance conditions favor this horse however number 2 won his last race here and lightning does strike twice. Number 3 has been runner up in his last two races can he go one further this time out. The point being that it is increasingly difficult going forward to forecast. We do know that it will start to turn colder but how much colder and how much snow is up for debate. Good fence sitting by the meto and well within their rights to do so until we get good solid agreement within a reliable period.

Yes and has also been very consistent in showing this type of pattern for the past few days now with no wobbles.

The truth is bullseye you cannot predict snow from that far out. The only way that the likes of corbyn can say he successfully predicted snow to fall is through way of percentages i.e cold weather = Highish probability of snow. Realistically anything above 24 - 48 hours you're having a punt. Getting back to the models - Arctic high setting up to our north east and lp to our se certainly a good way as we enter december if your after cold weather.

Afternoon all, Current temp of 12.2c with blue sky. Felling chilly with a strengthening wind.

Hi, I'm not questioning you am however just saying that is how its worked in my company for the last 10 years and possibly further before that.

I work and have done so for the last 10 years on the railway and have never heard of the expensive and accurate service. The only updates we do get comes from the meto itself and faxes containing the information are sent to each station where there is a risk of below freezing temperatures and or snow. From there we are directed to grit each station and especially over bridges ect. Just further to add that we do not receive warnings for 7 days ahead we only receive faxes the day before or on the day itself.

Evening or Morning folks Overcast evening and winds have dramatically died down from this afternoon thankfully. A current temp of 8.3c.

Good luck with your prediction Fred. Just wondering what signals are you using to suggest that the upcoming cold spell will be shot lived? Chino updated his thoughts over on the strat thread this evening and it looks quite promising for cold lovers

Just take 2010 as a example breakdown put further and further back once the pattern became established - A little tiresome with some recent posts talking of breakdowns ect in far reaches of fi where the pattern before is not nailed on. Looking into the reliable time frame the pattern change to more colder conditions is pretty much nailed on now and looks to be a more of a progress as we go along type of pattern change. In terms of posters stating about possible breakdowns in fi then we could also equally say that blocking in fi say day 7-10 range could be underestimated as previous situations have proved. Just enjoy

Ha Ha just knew you were awaiting your intro...

Where is Mr Murr has he just gone into cardiac arrest Absolutely fantastic charts this evening from both gfs and ecm.

Upgrades reminds me 2010 ! A lot better flow from the 12z.

Very much liking the 12z cold uppers much closer to us mid range compared with 06z. A very good start to the evening thus far.

All seriousness though if this cold spell ends up a bad one do the good deed and help the elderly and those vulnerable to get through...

Hopeful that those winds may die down before i do the dog run dont fancy driving rain and high winds in a park that is very elevated.

I guess one thing that i have not seen mentioned is the word ' Streamers ' and yes although premature. However with the likes of the meto stating wintry showers and wind from a e-ne flow these cannot be ruled out once we get into the pattern change.

Gone very dark and gusty here in sw London, Rain fairly light during morning however picking up now on the strengthening wind.

The meto will always urge caution and use terms such as ' Uncertainty ' until such pattern is nailed. See 2010 cold spell and there wording as a prime example.

The 18z is up to 126 now and looking a lot better than previous. In fact the contrasts between the 132 earlier run and the 126 now is amazing to say the least. Apologies as i was not looking properly - Actually very similar chance of some back edge snow from that system that is clearing the south east monday morning maybe?

It just got to me how you come with that answer ' Worrying Run ' but never mind. The thing we have to remember here is that we was never going to go straight in the freezer was we. It is a pattern change and trending on from the pattern change we could well go in the freezer however this depends on a number of factors. The main point is is that after the pattern change things will become very interesting indeed with the amount of blocking likely to occur as demonstrated by the 240 ecm this evening.

Hi xioni. How can you view the 12z and call this a worrying run? The pattern change to cold is nigh on nailed ( Below Average ) and we have a real chance of something brilliant further down the line as highlighted by the 240 ecm which shows bags of potential. You sound like a very knowledgeable person but i fail to see how you have come up with that conclusion. The main thing is to get the pattern change in place which looks very much form horse.

Agreed however 240 is looking very tasty to me.. ONE WORD = POTENTIAL..

Just like to clear things up for those confused... Although the 32 day model has picked the signal for colder conditions up a few weeks ago and has done very well this time around. There has been also times in the past where this model has been wrong so although rated caution is the order of the day especially when it shows a months worth of output ( Potential Breakdown ). A prime example of this was 2010 the cold arrived and despite signals and various outputs suggesting a breakdown the these charts stayed in fi for a long time and thus the cold continued further. In these types of situations i am more inclined to follow the ecm op for the short and longer term and the ukmo short term and compare both in the short term range. Hope that helps to some.

Great post nick my thoughts very much the same. As i remember 2010 - 2011 the famous event itself. A few op runs were showing breakdowns even before we got the cold air in place however once we had the cold air established the breakdown was put further and further back. I feel that if we get over the first hurdle we then have the winning post of the grand national in sight.