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I've flagged this possibility a couple of times but just to extract a portion of a post I made on Sunday; The MJO continues eastwards and blocking is never sustained forever, it will relax and that will allow the jet to nudge a bit further northwards, however; I'd not buy into any output beyond Wednesday next week at this stage, we need to see how any wedges left to our north come into play, this could have fairly big impacts for the weather we see in the UK. As outlined earlier today by Tamara, Catacol & Matt though, any waning of blocking will likely be temporary with renewed blocking likely into early February. the mid-extended range remains very uncertain and open to substantial shifts within NWP modelling. Blocking WILL relax, but that doesn't automatically mean mild, wet & Atlantic driven, the jet should remain south shifted..
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I think some are letting the excitement get to them, "snowstorm of the century" and comparing this to 1881 are a little silly! The concern with the 18z now though is those wedges have completely vanished and we end up with a bit of an Atlantic onslaught, probably a case of GFS blowing up the lows, some of the frames look rather unrealistic to me but slight adjustments south in the mid term is good enough for me, for now.
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EXETER KEEP THE FAITH! Extended update via app, they see the block & hold holding on into February! Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5005025
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Case in point @ICE COLD These plume charts show that there's a tighter cluster of ensembles that remain cold & don't follow the Det, albeit there is smaller cluster that does. Huge amount of spread as modelling continues to struggle with undercutting energy SE. To compare with the 00z, certainly a a reduced cluster keeping things cold but with so much spread it's rather difficult to know if that actually means somerthing. EDIT: Actually the scales are different between the runs, I don't think it's that much of a downgrade looking more closely, entire suite remains a mess though.
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The majority were south of the UK with some into southern England. Red lines show the position of the warm front across the 00z EPS suite. It'll be interesting to see this chart from the 12z run. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5005760
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The GFS that was very much in the mild camp and well above the ensemble mean? That GFS? People here put far too much stock into deterministic runs instead of looking at the larger picture, i.e the ensembles. Det runs are no more likely to be right in the 7 day range than any random ensemble member you could pick out. As stated a few days ago, the polar boundary will shift north and south with each run until models resolve the undercutting & strength of the high. Nothing has changed.
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Northern members: It's an amazing run Southern members: Rubbish run These types of posts aren't overly helpful and just add confusion. Broadscale patterns for now, wait until high resolution comes into range before worrying about snowfall placements/boundaries. I'm still of the opinion that the low wont even reach the UK, let alone bring snowfall or rain.