jemtom

Deary me WiB, where has the level head gone all of a sudden? I've seen sleep deprivation do some strange things to people, but this....... I think the only thing likely to be bitter is your coffee, perhaps you should drink it rather than smell it....

My pre month call was 11.0c, thinking now I might just be a tad low with this one.

Ribster - don't shoot the messenger...

The CF has now cleared, having delivered a massive 1.1mm. The radar however does show a large area of ppt between here and Ireland, so some more rain does look likely this morning and perhaps into the early afternoon.

Well I suppose it helps to sell papers!!

http://www.people.co.uk/news/tm_headline=i...-name_page.html

A nice fat round 11.0c is my punt.

Thanks Roger and Shuggee, much appreciated.

I'm anticipating a month of two halves, with much warmer, settled weather likely during the last fortnight, but certainly nothing spectacular. Therefore 15.3c is my call. Al

Does anyone know the highest temperature recorded so far this month across the UK?? Thanks in anticipation. Al

Actually WIB was right with his 33c, 13c in the morning and 20c in the afternoon.

Thanks for that John I must confess to having not read the full text in finite detail, but the very fact they have dropped the 8/1 odds thingy in their latest release suggests they appear to accept it was a (quote) daft thing to propose in the first place. I appreciate as an ex employee you hold the MO in high regard, I on the other have a completely opposing view, with their vague and ambiguous releases high on my list of things they do that rankle. I hope in offering this opinion I'm not infringing any of the forum rules, nor offending you in any way, but if so I apologise in advance .

I'm not really sure I follow your logic there SB , but thats hardly surprising as I'm not very bright. To my way of thinking the record is statistically about a 1 in 100 event, so if you chuck some global warming into the mix, then add a bit of exagerated local warming for NW Europe you're down to around 30 or 40/1 in reality. No doubt some bright spark will shot my theory full of holes, but that's how I see it.

I see no justification whatsoever for the MO to quote an 8/1 chance of the highest summer temp record being broken this year. There is no statistical evidence to support this claim, therefore it amounts to little more more than guesswork and conjecture, probably with a liberal dose of marketing thrown in for good measure. The fact that our climate is currently in a warming trend and we've had a very warm Spring to date does not mean a recording breaking hot Summer will automatically follow. IMO the true meteorological odds of the record going this summer is around 30/1. However if the good fellows of a well known betting exchange are to be believed the odds of 100f being hit is as low as 2.3/1 - this sounds like a very poor bet to me and I shall be laying it accordingly with my hard earned.

The temp peaked at 21.1c here near Bude, Cornwall at 14.40hrs, making it the warmest day of the year so far. As a footnote at 15:00UTC the temp was a stunning 21c in N Iceland, whilst at the same time it was only 20c in N Egypt, 17c in N Algeria and only 13c in N Portugal.... The worlds going mad I tell ye, mad, mad, mad!!!!!!!

That looks about the mark to me too SB, with max temps likely to be lower than previously forecast across the last 3 days, as indeed they have been today by some considerable margin. Still a staggering month though all things considered.

Back on topic - looks to me as if rather persistent low cloud both today and across the weekend may keep the CET a little lower than predicted.