William of Walworth
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Posts posted by William of Walworth
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just for the record, frosty normally posts a series of charts from a whole plethora of time scales, and accordingly posts summaries of his thoughts on said charts.....some might verify, some don't.....but to state that cooler, wet weather is set to return on the 25th with one chart (way way out in FI) posted is hardly a valid comparison to frosty's posts......All model discussion is valid in this thread, even LRF modelling such as the CFS, but please, for everyone who views this thread, T192 onwards is for trend spotting, not forecasting per se
Thanks for adding that context. I was pretty confused by the single (rain-dominated!) chart which coldcomfort selected (or cherrypicked?) for Thursday 25th, which seemed somewhat? out of line (to say the least!) with some of the other trends being suggested for later this month. Admittedly anything at all that's suggested for week 2 from now is deep FI anyway, and summerlover though I am, I do keep telling myself that FI is FI and that I should not be building up too much hope for HP to dominate right through to the end of June.
But still. It does seem to me that it's not only settled-weather preferrers on here who show strong preferences/biases.
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EC32 update
By Wednesday weak troughing Iceland but the main point increasing influence from the Azores HP plus increasing heights Scandinavia. Dry and temps average.
Moving on a week to the 24th no significant change but temps now above average and hey ho, more so in the north of the UK.
Moving on another week to the 2nd July. Possibility of just a reminder of toughing to the NW but the HP to the SW still in control so dry with average temps.
Finally by the 10th July no significant change. Dry temps around the average.
Summary
The main feature for the whole of the run is the Azores HP to the south west. The centre of this does jockey around a bit and there is the odd occasion when a weak trough may effect Scotland and the north of England but in general it stays influential over the UK giving dry weather with temps around average or a tad above. Of course as always there will be regional variations
So no heatwaves but, more to the point, no sign of wet and windy so I'll take this any day of the week. Everything looks hunky dory.
Bank!
Current synoptics looking pretty positive overall for summer lovers. Lets hope the updates over coming days sustain the High Pressure influence we seem likely to be in for.
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I'm daring to start looking towards the Glastonbury period (deep FI, week starting Monday 22nd June).
Some tentative (and obviously very early) synoptic signals against a washout ... but I'll be remaining very cautious for the time being. J10 in his Glasto blogs is also being suitably cautious.
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I agree knocker. Too much uncertainty beyond next week. Certainly too much to 'write off' the second half of June at this early stage, and anyone betting on unsettled/cool trough-dominated conditions to persist right through to the end of the month would be overconfident I think.
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I would like to see Tamara's latest thoughts on all this as well, she's great at analysing the bigger picture.. I'm away for the weekend very shortly. Should I bet on prospects/outlook looking quite different by Monday? Maybe I will ...
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My advice to everyone generally is to avoid writing off June based on not much more than general pessimism.
We know next to nothing that's reliable about what'll happen beyond the next 7-10 days, and there's lots of scope for alterations in detail and positioning even for that period.
Beyond that we know almost nothing.
Well with AMO going negative I can only foresee cooler summers with persistent low pressure systems. I feel like the warm, sunny summers of my childhood are going to be a very distant memory.
So on the above basis, this comment is meaningless.
I can only see it shifting westwards sorry,
And even this is by no means a given.
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Those ECM 12z images that Summer Sun posted show the LP's influence more confined to North and West this coming weekend (Fri 5th/Sat 6th) than in some earlier runs.
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Interesting links from stodge, but as he himself suggests, definitely not written in stone yet. Anything beyond this coming weekend is FI and there's plenty of time for positional shifting as we head further into June..
stodge said
None of this is certain and nor does it rule out hot weather in July and August.Nor more settled/warmer conditions later in June either, I'd say. Too early to be in any way sure etc. There's always the chance of the traditional NW/SE split as well
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I was trying my best to avoid getting too excited about that suggested extreme-plume shown in some earlier models.
I mean I love hot days as much as any summer-lover, but plumes are inherently unstable when they do actually occur. I'm not as much a fan of mega-thunderstoms as some on here. And plumes of the type suggsted in some earlier models very often fail to materialise anyway. The latest models seem to be wiping a very hot plume off next Friday's/Saturday's agenda, at least for now.
In her most recent analysis, Tamara was suggesting there may be some signs of some more stable warmth/HP building from the SW, over the slightly longer term. If that happened, it would be preferable for settled-weather preferrers. Give me 21C lasting 10 days or more, rather than 29C lasting for 2 and followed by a stormy breakdown.
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So what do I see? A typical UK spell, one day of sunshine, temperatures rather good, feeling fantastic in the sunshine. Then overcast and damp the next day, no breakdown in the form of an electrial storm, followed by a usual regime of sunshine and showers for the rest of June.
People looking for a settled spell lasting more than 5 days, myself included need to remember where we live, and that here, in the worlds worst climate, if it can go wrong. It will.
Bolded bit : Do you mean for the whole of June? What's your synoptic evidence for that?
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Hello Zippy. Wasn't too bad at all last year IMO.
Yes there were downpours and even mud, the Friday of last year. But in general, the festival endured very far from mudbath or washout conditions -- after the downpours on Friday, things really dried up on Saturday, and especially Sunday, as I recall.
This year, I hope J10 will start to predict even more High Pressure influenced conitions as we get into June. Next weekend I'll be going to Strawberry Fair in Cambridge (Saturday 6th June) and current modelling for the SE especially, is indicating a heatwave.
Beyond that, if you look at the Model Output Discussion thread, optimists there suggest trends towards a fairly settled June. Of course there are always those who actively, and IMO overenthusistically, look for a downgrade if they can possibly find one. But I'm cautiously optimistic myself, about the current synoptic setup for early next month.
Look at Tamara's very technical recent post in the M.O.D. thread. Her data is looking at a more settled spell for early to mid June,,and we can only hopecast that this might be extended. . Fingers crossed!
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stodge : lets see shall we?
Not all models support the suggested downgrade (beyond next weekend) that shows in those links you posted.
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Much as I love the idea/possibility/even probability of mega-hotness in the SE next w/e, that of Sat 6th June ...
Unstable, thundery, 27C to 30C level heat with risks of storms excites me FAR less than does hopes of sensible, settled, dry, warm and sunny weather. At 22C type level. With zero thunderstorm risk ...
Bring THAT on for the rest of June, please! Say I!
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Going to have to slap down that poost from ilikethesnow there :
No, they are not 'trending' towards low pressure/unsettled next weekend! Not all of them, and not UK-wide.
Most are still showing at least a reasonable degree of High Pressure influence, especially towards the South.
Chances of that most recent UKMO (showing a more nearby trough than many would like) being a rogue? Check future runs for possibly more positive changes, I'd say.
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I'm inclined to think there's at least a possibility that future runs could revert again to building more strongly the High Pressure build (still) progged for late next week/next weekend.
Given that most of the anomolies seem to remain broadly positive (?), I think it would be foolish to write off
this possibility. As for North Lincs next Saturday (6th June), I'd advise LincsTim to keep checking over future days, because there will always be changes in positioning and detail. I'll be in Cambridge for my festival on Sat 6th, and I think a washout remains pretty unlikely -- far better odds on the reverse I'd say. Although I do appreciate that further North than Cambridge things could well be more uncertain.
My biggest hope(cast!) is that UKMO decides to make the trough shown to be nearer by in their most recent models retreat further N/NW, and that ECM is at least broadly correct. Plenty of time to go yet.
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Let's have a few more runs shall we? I haven't seen anything futher up-to-date than 00Z yet. And there's been plenty of shifts in the synoptical detail over the last few days, over various runs.
I appreciate that most of the very recent anomolies are not so encouraging, but as a more general point of criticism, it does seem to me that one operational run in a less positive, more trough influenced direction is enough to get it very rapidly seized on on this thread as gospel, whereas if any moderate improvement towards a tad more HP influence is hinted at in the next two or three runs, then scepticism is more likely to rule the roost for longer, for many contributors.
We are always correctly advised every year to be FI-cautious, but that applies to the trough side of predictions as well as to the HP side, surely.
So do stop writing off June before it's started! It's only 20th May today, remember.
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Latest model output thread output looking very different from modelling domonating the outpur two or three days ago, and in both cases that's just relating to next weekend, ie the Bank Holiday one.
By Monday, expect several more fluctuations. Then by next Thursday, several more again.
Even just one week ahead, we can rely on nothing.
So I'm definitely not indulging in any mid-Somerset focussed, late-June hopecasting for now ...
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A week to ten days (call me greedy!) of 21C and settled, would suit me far better than two days of 27C followed by a major washout ... just a general comment there.
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Hello all.
Just emerging from hibernation -- I rarely contribute on these forums between October and April, because only May to September (aka the fetival season!) really interests me. I appreciate others are different.
But ...
Just the annual general request from me, which I make every year. In Model Output thread particularly, but also anywhere, can people please try and avoid getting too prematurely/enthusiasticly into 'writeoff' mode when synoptic prospects for the forthcoming ten days look average/indifferent/even rubbish**??
(**for fans of warmth and mostly dry and sunshine and High Pressure influenced [note emphasis] conditions, that is!)
Reasons : obvious!
I'm mildly concerned about conditions for the late May Bank Holiday weekend right now, but as we all know, changes in synoptic detail are constant and will continue to be ...
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Hello J10, good to see you've started the thread for the Big G so early. I have zero expectations of anything remotely reliable/accurate so far ahead, but discussion of rough trends/longer term hints UK wide, may not do much harm ...
Relevant dates for this year's festival are (officially) Wednesday 24th June to Sunday 28th June 2015.
But some of us crew will be on site as early as the previous Sunday (21st). or thereabouts. Some of us old schoolers may become a little concerned about the runup period as well as prospects for the festival itself -- in times of site conditions.
All thoughts will be welcomed as they are every year, and your work is much appreciated.
I expect I won't be focussing too closely until we're into June. Right now I'm principally looking at weather prospects for the late May Bank Holiday weekend, which right now, on today's output (Weds 13th May), looks cool/chilly on several models, albeit not too much of a washout (yet).
But as we all know, changes in synoptic detail can happen at any point. whether in May. June or any month ... let's hope a less than stellar May so far may turn into a warmer June ...
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As for the UK's very rationed and limited 'High Pressure Quota' -- it was overused to lovely effect in September, so don't overuse it before next May please!
(Then give us PLENTY! Right through to the end of September again .... )
Right. Hibernation, then ....
Enjoy yourselves ....
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I'm about to enter hibernation (from here at least -- wish it could happen in real life!!) for the non-summer.
Between round about early October and round about late April, my sheer indifference as to which discussion wins or not on here between cold-ramping or wet-mild-and-stormy-ramping,or even extreme-frosty-and-dry-ramping, is massive.
In fact my 'whatevs!' about anything weather/synoptic-wise beyond about late September is probably more extreme than almost anyone else's on Netweather (?).
So enjoy your autumn, winter and early spring chats, folks. I'm just going to enjoy the fact that I don't work on Fridays -- poorer is worth it for three day weekends!
See you round about Easter 2015 -- there may be a bit of chat about summer then ....
<huddles under duvet for several months! Except for campervan buying duties in November for Festival Season 2015!!!
>The cold ramping and hunting has started in the MOD thread. And so it begins...
And that's partly the reason for my post above .... see ya!
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Nick has started a regular blog analysing the models and synoptic patterns - first one here:
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=news;storyid=6167;sess=
Have just read Nick's blog -- it's excellent.
But when you compare this from Nick :
Upper ridging and surface high pressure are indicated to become more prominent across southern Britain over the weekend, so expectations are for predominantly dry weather with above normal temperatures across England and Wales, particularly by Sunday – with temperatures of 23-24C possible across S England with any sunshine. Lower pressure towards NW Britain and glancing Atlantic weather fronts across the far north suggests cloudier conditions with outbreaks of rain at times for W Scotland and N Ireland over the weekend.... it makes me wonder where the BBC are getting their local forecasts from for the coming weekend. They surely need to revise them (and maybe they will) ... their suggestions for some Southern places in their 19:00 updates of largely cloudy/17C maxes are surely highly overcautious by now.
All the ouput I'm seeing suggests sunnier and warmer for many Southern areas on Saturday and Sunday ....
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What I'm finding hard to predict from current output is cloud/sunshine proportions for later in the coming week and next weekend. Cloud levels would affect temperatures, so thoughts on this anyone? I'm thinking more Southern areas.
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Been catching up with various model output last night and this morning after a long and busy gap.
I'm sure I'm not alone on here in being delighted by much of the recent synoptic projections. I've been loving this often sunny, mostly warm, always dry Septtember, but I never dared to hope that all that might last until our last weekend outing of the summer.
I was convinced until very recently that by the time we take our tent out (to the Forest of Dean) next weekend (that of Saturday 27th Sept) that a big breakdown would have happenend by then -- I was sure just on th law of averages as much as anything else, that all the long overdue rain would be causing us a washout. Currently that's looking pretty unlikely though.
Still time for that to change I know, but odds still looking reasonable for now for a last summer blast for our last holiday/festival this year.... our tent is being put into retirement after this, because we'll be buying a campervan in the coming months! Oh yes ...
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this possibility. 
Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Spring/Summer 2015.
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by William of Walworth
By (Glastonbury-going) choice I'd take something warmer (and a tad less windy) without any storms at all, so my preference would be for models over future days to show a somewhat more progressive evolution of projected High Pressure from the SW, ie centring nearer us/even over us and stopping with us, eg a nice fat 1030 HP centred over Glastonbury Tor, Mon 22nd June onwards for 10 days, with a nice orientation for pleasant light winds for most.
Boring? I'll take High Pressure-dominated boring myself ... hey I don't ask for much!
And not changing (much) until Tuesday 1st July please! (something not ridiculously far away from the above dream is certainly not completely impossible, given trends of several recent-most op and ens models)
<slaps self and keeps reminding self about FI being FI >