lorenzo

FFO - thanks for the reply - first time I had really thought to have a look through the Ensembles for MJO - I guess they are on the fringes of experimentation. Interestingly the verification plots are way off point - so not sure really what to make of them. MJO FI ?! The CPC should release their weekly update on ENSO today at some point, last update was +ve but weakening conditions remaining into summer. Possibly a revision up and coming? Still perfectly poised in a land of confusion.

You should email that remember this chart to the Met Office LS.

GP, Any thoughts on the teleconnections for impact over the next 8-10 days. MJO seems to have remained indecisive static and AM falling, NAO and AO heading neutral.

We are in for some fun today on the model thread due to this - Easterly in FI Am sure there will be plenty of carnage, Easterlies always kick things off.. Tuesday looks busy and the fax chart is loaded with effects of that low, ppn all over the place - a minefield for predicting snow. Onto the radar for tomorrow I think and nowcasting. Upper temps (UKMO) look good - PPN charts have absolute downpours off the east coast - a little breeze and the East Coast gets a decent delivery. Plenty of the wet stuff around but difficult to determine what it will be. Highlands getting a good renewal of the white stuff, with wintry effects elsewhere. I expect people today at work will be noticing the cold again and moaning about ' am fed up with snow' . They forget how cold March can be..

Ha Ha there is some banter on there today, thought I a would chip in with a model related post. Looking interesting for Monday afternoon now, think there may be a few surprises in store. NAE shows the Dam line in a favourable position providing decent upper level temps in place. PPN from the outer edge of that ever present low flirting with the east coast. Could be some decent blizzards here and there. Saying that GFS will probably update later today and have us swamped by mild atlantic air - it likes to do this, whilst projecting an Ice Age for 7 days time. Will This Be Snow? It's a Dam Close Call

Monday afternoon looks interesting - energy from that nuisance low finally coming to some fruition. Could see heavy snow events for the east coast. I guess it's still marginal due to the track of the outer edge of the low as to where the band will decide to move, but signs are of a decent event.. NE Scotland, most of East Coast Scotland at 15:00 hours moving into the North of England by Monday evening - every chance this may still be firmed up within the next 12 hours and the evening runs. NAE Dam Line Moving South Heavy Showers for East Coast

Clouds you say... Here is a cracking Noctilucent Wallpaper..

I think that with so many false starts in FI for another cold shock the mood is turning mild in model thread world. Plenty of hints here and there. I guess it's a different set up a few hundred miles south, I am sure I saw snow and hail in May / June in Aberdeen once.. Interesting teleconnections just now- a lot to be resolved there before a clinical forecast can be made on the next fortnight. NAO well negative, AAM at a monster high near off the scale, also SSW occurring and playing havoc with the Polar Vortex. I think just now too much for the charts to resolve. Jetstream positions are interesting just now though as per JH - Will it snow next week at lower level post. I guess higher latitude blocking, Siberian blocking by mid week and I simply have no idea what that low is going to do yet?! Here's hoping the Returning polar maritime air slams it East and then North. Edit - Beer Typos./. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html#picture

Quality post - well laid out. MJO interests me as back to phase 1. Have a look at,and factor in, the Stratospheric analysis from Chiono and then you've got a good feel for where March is going.

Fom the Winter Gallery here on Net Weather A lamp post getting put to good use

Great reading LS - I agree having only been on here regularly since mid December that it is a great time for all the banter on the forum Keep Up the great work.

After GP post I found this GFS Ensembles Loop which shows the progression into next weekend quite well. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_12z/ensloopmref.html

ECM is excellent this evening, an upgrade or confirmation of locked in cold. The heights rises on Greenland are kicking in perfectly for later in the week also. Let the fun begin

Great update Chiono, TY. Regarding bold above... Winter into March?

Top Class, Thank You. I think this is a good chart for indicating the potential for blocking to our NW - am sure Chiono or GP will factor in the other elements in bringing the w/c 15/02 into perspective.

http://www.cpc.noaa....y/610day.03.gif Can anyone interpret the main features of this chart for me?

Good summary LS - it's onto the short range now and dewpoints and ppn.. Going to feel colder tomorrow morning that's for sure..

Think the confusion is between height charts and thickness charts relating to the 528 DAM line. http://www.weatheron...M=0&PANEL=0&WMO= Am pretty much a novice so someone correct me if I am wrong here..

Thanks for the reply, got some reading to do now - excellent stuff.

Looking forward to the 18z charts, coming into a non FI timeframe now. GP reply to my post is a good one, got some reading to do now..! Technical is not the word ! I am getting more interested now in what will happen after the initial snow events, are we in for a replay of December cold spell...

Was on the thread earlier I think.. http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=pslv&HH=0&BASE=-&WMO=&ZOOM=0

Looking forward to the model output from tomorrow evening into Sunday morning, then I reckon we will see some accord.

T+12 days since the last major input from MJO and a shift in pattern from the January lull(mild). I reckon that's a usable timeframe for transport of Indian Ocean convection to Upper to Lower + 3 days for models to factor. From what you have written GP, would really like to know more about GWO and how the angular momentum contributes to the mid-range forecasts, are there relativities based on stage which are then adjusted via torque factors? If you were to review this winter synoptic - which would you qualify as the most consistent signal for cold?

Wow, I've missed all the carnage this week . Busy at work and with the family. Logged in this morning to find new acronyms??? The model thread gone to pieces. And the same issues on the charts - upgrades and downgrades - monster cold in FI, moving forward to +48 hrs then moving away again Unreal ! Looks like the latest runs from this morning place us in another stalemate position. A waiting game now to see hopefully another upgrade. I can see a 3 day spell of ensembles providing consistent decent upper level temps, other than that the models are in some degree of conflict over the level of blocking and this mornings output seems to be on the cusp of resolving that pattern. Here's to some clarity and unity on the models by 18z if not Saturday evening.

Good steady snowfall here just now - not sure if it will be on for long though. Enough to give everything a good covering