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Everything posted by ❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️
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Model output discussion - mid-winter
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Barely there on the control- 2,572 replies
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Model output discussion - mid-winter
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Chuffing heck! Did Steve Murr hack into the GFS supercomputer!!!1- 2,572 replies
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Model output discussion - mid-winter
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes, we might just be buried...- 2,572 replies
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Model output discussion - mid-winter
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Correct! Isn't the weather wonderful!- 2,572 replies
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Model output discussion - mid-winter
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think this speaks for itself- 2,572 replies
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Model output discussion - mid-winter
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model output discussion - into 2018
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
12z ECM coming out soon, I'm sure we will see a complete turn around to a strong easterly. -
Model output discussion - into 2018
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Desperate times -
Model output discussion - into 2018
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Moscow getting on bored!? -
Model output discussion - into 2018
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The upcoming decline in polar evaporation is a clear development for me. In the half of the arctic, only a few days later we have only troposphere reaction, and we need to look around 9/10 days to stop half of it. This is part of the GFS ensembles. The second stage of the cold can be NEs. The ensemble also provides a deeper support for Europe's rising hpa, as well as a low pressure on the Atlantic. The ECM is not for me. -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well hello there! -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The Monday snow event is creeping south -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
"Sliders" can be challenging, especially for strong, stable and high pressureve. Conversely, as a slider, the lower flow in the north moves to high pressure. Many examples, including the least weight, low type, and so on. That does not mean that high blood pressure can increase, but the design of "W-E" lines! (not like "e-w control"). -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Impressive snowfall rates for Northern Scotland. -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I need a cold shower after seeing that... -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You called? -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Does Iceland met still do those ECM charts that show uk? -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
If the next Friday afternoon is 12 z, BLIZZARD BLIZZARD BLIZZARD will change! -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Could be worse! -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Examples and steps are lower than winter first ... So I think there is a chance to have another goal during the month. Gefs and Eps are updating the stratosphere related to the second part of November 3 and good ideas from Wave 1 are rising briefly in the next few days. This underscores weakened weaknesses and causes stratosphere near Alaska. These include sunflower model and red polar. At the same time, we have a large hole in the North Pacific Ocean and north of the North Atlantic to prepare. Miracles of miraculous use are the finest appearance found in late September and October (ie restoration) and slow movement (second sign, big sign). It is important to look at the amount of cold fever that can be shattered in the northwest. -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There is absolutely no certainty with weather modeling, apart from massive investment in super-theres computers simply there are no current means to accurately predict long-term. I think that last winter went strangely smoothly in terms of the longest signal range was winter 2009/2010. I think it is clear that our current core signals are not strong. With this in mind theres more liquid for what we will get and just as we have stronger rules at the time suspected 46 other names to remove some bricks. From a half-glass perspective full if the long-term models prove to be wrong then let's remember that when the weather shows so mild! In a way no idea what might happen in 10 days time is a good thing, then at least you can always hope for something good to turn up. I think it's well documented that background signals are more appropriate than last year. So with this in mind let's see what winter brings. -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️ replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
In undoubtedly the opposition as now, it's usually best not to look at the model a little bit, because it takes time for models to be strengthened when the model changes. Today, as one of these days, where the models have never been shown to be different from that time yesterday, but perhaps the move of more energy could be shifted to the south jet's arm, and the opportunity of a greater the GFS continent says that he is usually interested in feeding the north arm.Sound is like a striped record, but the key force is the tallest, and where he decides his position, because it's a characteristic there is an impact on the magnitude we can see, and therefore the high SE (perhaps very temporarily) or model action is (stay on the gentle side of the polar jet) or the west (we put on the side of the frost in the jet), the ECM suggests the final situation, GFS and the extreme situation, the older models, the first scenario, the possible SE sink, the page that is shorter and less ... more tugnaw in the following, it might be a return here and now.