[South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 11/1/2017 ---->]

A few bits of sleet and the easterly looks dead. Roll on summer. 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

ECM once again being a total block tease in FI. 

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

17 hours ago, knocker said:

Looks like a cold January

 

[Model output discussion pm 13/01/2016]

I think I know the most reliable model for tomorrow's possible snow event. 

 

[Model output discussions pm 31/12/15]

On 31/12/2015 at 3:06 PM, Steve Murr said:

So to repeat what I just added over on TWO

bin all the GFS & ECM suites 

 

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

I think ignoring shortwaves and the ops in this setup is delusional. 

 

 

I'm confused

[C.E.T. forecasts for December 2015 (start of 2015-16 competition year)]

Craig evans' guess was 0.7 under the actual outcome, that says it all. 

[Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter]

20 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Weak E'ly at 168, snowfest for NE on next frame 192

[South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>]

A few more westward corrections and we are in business!

[South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion - 1300z 12/1/15 ------>]

Heavy NO here

[Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere Autumn/Winter 2014]

Lovely jubbly

[Spanish plume anyone? Storm and convective discussion 17th July Onwards]

Wait years for a decent Storm and 2 come along on consecutive nights!

[Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards]

There will be a cross isobaric component to the flow (H->L), and also a general outflow from the high. So you might have a source from the Med, but this would be after that pattern persists for a few days. 

Isobars are not trajectories and figuring out the trajectory of the air is not as straightforward as eyeballing one isobaric map. 

 

OK Thanks for the answer. Still pretty mild for a few thousand metres up in winter, 0c isotherm at 3500m!

 

[Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards]

Does this show a Tropical Continental air source for the UK?

 

[December 2013 CET forecasts -- 2013/14 Competition]

2.8C please.

[South West/Central Southern Regional Discussion Discussion 16th July 2013 onwards]

I wish it was moving east!

[South West/Central Southern Regional Discussion Discussion 16th July 2013 onwards]

Heck of a storm over Bristol, too far east here to even hear the thunder but plenty of lightning.

[Convective / Storm Risk Discussion - 22nd July 2013 onwards]

What is the mechanism that causes t-storms to build at night?

[South West/Central Southern Regional Discussion Discussion 21st May 2013 onwards]

Phew what a scorcher!

Thinking of snow!

[Hot and settled spell discussion and temperature reports July 2013]

-3C Steady moderate powder snow

I wish!

[April 2013 CET Forecast Contest (2012-13 Competition)]

7.1C please

[Late cold spell - The effects]

For those who are "enjoying" this late cold and snow please spare a thought for the thousands of animals that have been killed by this snow

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-21933135

I sure hope you didn't "enjoy" the 2003 heat wave when 70,00 people were killed.

[Spring Model Discussion 25th March 2013 012z onwards]

Here we have sub -10 850s across almost the entire British Isles, and British Summer Time starts at the weekend!

And a blob of sub 5C SSTs east off Scotland!

[Spring Model Discussion 21st March 2013 006z onwards...]

The face over Scandinavia looks shocked at the cold!

[South West & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 22/03/13 08z ----->]

No sorry. The air temperature will be affected by the Dewpoint value however, which is a broad representation of how dry the air is.

The other thing that affects the air temperature is snowcover. We might not have any but as we know the north and east of us do so with the air coming over the snowfields of the north and east of the UK to us, then this is also making it much colder.

Ah that would explain it