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Mark Burton

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    East Anglia & Three Counties Regional Discussion - Part 2

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Mark Burton

    All im going to say tonight is this from the latest NAE.

    post-1766-0-41107500-1328308472_thumb.gi

    Im looking forward to spending my time in this thread tomorrow.

    Hi TEITS, if you don't mind could you explain how we are going to get inches of snow tomorrow night from sleet and ice rain, because that is the NW forecast for our region, and as time progresses the ppn is gradually turning to rain in the projections.

    If this verifies there will be a lot of disappointed people here, and a very red faced BBC!!

    I want snow as much as everyone here, I will hope and believe it happens

    East Anglia & Three Counties Regional Discussion - Part 2

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Mark Burton

    With very little people at work,dawn on sunday morning should provide some great chances for photos .Shall be charging the camera!

    Not so sure, Netweather gives SLEET for our area tomorrow night. The BBC says SNOW, so Netweather is acually isolated with this forecast for us.

    I think it will be a marginal situation - but according to this site we will be getting torrential sleet at 0C at 9pm tomorrow night. I believe that at that temp heavy ppn with be snow! Good luck, I would still charge the camera!!

    Model Discussion - 27th July

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    That's the GFS getting over excited about Ex Hurricanes. You may some mega monster lows in deep FI in the next few weeks.

    You have to love GFS, it's just loud, confident and WRONG. Look at last week, 2 weeks ago we were all getting exited with GFS's projected, upcoming countrywide heatwave due to start around the 23rd July. It never came, especially in the far East - we have had a reasonable week in some parts of the country. My point is, UKMO and ECM more or less nailed last week - GFS was the most inaccurate of the three. So I take it's future predictions with a pinch of salt!

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Quite a good GFS again, but each run is very topsy turvy in FI. At the very end its gone from a 1040 High in one run to around 1000 Low pressure the next. :lol:

    Remaining good for most for the rest of the week. With no disrespect and please treat this as an observation and not a dig at anyone but some havementioning this spell of weather isn't that good, it actually is for us here in the West. It may not be yet in the East but just because it isn't good there does not mean its bad for all! I thought id just raise this because Ive had the feeling that because its cloudy for the East this is a rubbish spell for everyone else because it isn't. The past 3 days have been excellent here. That aside most should experience good weather by the end of the week with perhaps a brief cloudier spell and a little rain Thursday/Friday. Temperatures nudging the mid 20's by the weekend seem quite possible and early next week but pressure lowering slightly allowing the risk of a little rain or perhaps thundery showers. Beyond mid next week is very uncertain however the CFS is keen on quite a fair bit of High pressure for most of August following a blip of low pressure between about the 5th - 15th but still nothing bad.

    I do actually think August will be the most settled of the three true summer months with the end of August perhaps turning briefly hot but thats just my interpretation so feel free to disagree. :lol:

    In summary, for most of us, quite a decent outlook. :D

    Nice summary Blizzards - glad you have good weather where you are! I'm about as far East as you can get (Great Yarmouth) and it's not good. Thick grey cloud with occasional light drizzle and cool Temps. Hopefully our warm up begins tomorrow............. to 19C :clap:

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Mark Burton

    Looks like the nationwide warm up will begin this weekend and into next week,

    http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1261.png - Low to mid 20's

    http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1501.png - High 20's inland low 20's at the coast and Scotland

    http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1741.png - Mid 20's just about ever where, high teens for the far north of scotland

    So once the weekend is here so it appears summer will arrive some nice BBQ weather on it's way.

    You know, we were looking at charts almost identical to these, last week, for this week. Also, we were making the same comments " the warm up begins.........." So I for one won't believe it until it happens!

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    My latest view on how things may develop using just the 500mb anomaly charts with no attempt to see if the further out teleconnections are favourable.

    The period involved is end of this month into the first week of August.

    As usual its in pdf format.

    500mb update sunday 24 july 2011-issue 3.pdf

    Thank you John for your forcast - very interesting. Well Backtrack, we ended up with clear skies and 18C in Great Yarmouth today - not a drop of rain as forcast (that came last night) and the forcast looks better with each run - so not the disaster I was dreading. I know there are quite alot of model watchers on holiday in this area this week. Maybe WE are raising the pressure - hopecasting :lol:

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Nothing to write home about? You must be blind.

    Towards the latter end of the run we have heights dropping over Greenland, allowing high pressure to flow into the British Isles, this persists throughout the whole run keeping things settled.

    The GFS ensemble run also supports this with some reasonable agreement even out in FI.

    prmslcheshire.png

    I like your positive spin on things Backtrack. Im in Great Yarmouth, and today is much better than expected, it rained last night - the rain is now retreating back into the continent and yes, the sun is coming out! IMO for us, the only way is up.:yahoo: :yahoo:

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I've also noticed that GFS temps are often lower than the actual on the day, but in summer time I don't mind that at all :good: I will be holidaying in Great Yarmouth next week (all sympathy votes accepted) so am watching the models very closely. I am expecting a very unseasonal day on Sunday, but am hoping for a slow improvement as each day progresses during the week. Any prolonged sunshine will boost Temps to a reasonable level. Looks like I have bombed on this years holiday destination - there's always next year!

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Mark Burton

    Greeny High there on every 6 hours from T0 to T384 for the entire run, = a southerly tracking jet. Most likely synoptics,

    the awful summer north of the midlands goes on. MOre of the same for the southern half of the country, although never more than 2 warm summery days here before the high ridges scoot east. 30oC highly unlikely for the remainder of July. POssibly peaking at 25oC. Just August to look forward to for a summery month. Modern summer Augusts have been notably poor over the last 4 or 5 years. My instinct tells me we will have to wait to early mid September for the next lengthy late summer spell.

    If the Greeny High does persist, then I agree with you that it will be more of the same. I think this summer is proving a mixed bag for everyone - high temps/ storms/ cooler interludes, for me, very interesting - I've got no complaints.

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Heat being shown again on the 6z GFS after being dropped on the previous run, of course it's well into FI so fairly unlikely to happen but look how widespread and hot the colours are!

    And by the way, for those going off topic with the traditional North vs South argument, firstly 30C is likely at some point almost every year , (in the south-east) but southern members need to understand that people in the North and North-west have experienced a below average summer even by their low standards so far, whist we in the south have had an average summer so far so they have a right to complain about their miserable weather.

    My Son has just moved down to Buckinghamshire from Cumbria - he thinks he's in the South of France now!!

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Mark Burton

    thanks for the in depth analysis, it helps us with less knowlege to learn more :)

    obviously im looking towards a possible proper hot spell, its been 5 years now and the models arent a million miles away from a possible hotter evolution sometime in the next 6-8 weeks. i feel that we are closer this year then we have been for some time, so the info posted by jh, gp, etc is of great use as it keeps us (me...lol) from getting up false hopes.

    With the right airmass over us, it very quickly got up into the low 30's C on Monday - so it could happen again with the right set up.

    For me, I like the scenario that we are expecting for the weekend, Monday was too hot to work in - this summer could be SO much worse as many older members will testify to. I remember some complete washout holidays in the early 1970's, in the South - totally miserable.

    Last Nights ? Yesterdays Forecasting Failure

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Can't speak for other posters but I don't think this is the case in this instance, certainly not from my perspective. Analysis of forecasts is just as important as studying model output and have you seen the big kids drooling over snow in there?

    That would be jimbo36 then who thought that there wouldn't be much snow then bumped his own post to show he was right!

    On the subject of forecast errors, it will be interesting to see if this evening's snow for the Glasgow area will come off, looks unlikely at the moment. Meto's website is playing it down much more than the warnings on the BBC forecasts.

    At the end of the day, we are all weather nuts on here in one form or another. I have been since I was about 8 years old! Some of us read the models, others rely on the established forcasters to make an informed forcast, some even read the sky itself - we all have our different ways of doing things. This thread is about a forcasting faliure for a widespread snow event that was all rain on the day, not about people being childish in their reaction to it.

    Last Nights ? Yesterdays Forecasting Failure

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Mark Burton

    So much for the big BBC snow event, talking about loud, confident and WRONG. I thought it might happen if Temps dropped away close to freezing last night - but they didn't, it was 2C at midnight here and just starting to rain. I have experienced so many of these BBC snow 'let downs', so I didn't expect snow last night! Net weather was spot on with the forcast, 2C and ice rain!!

    This was my own reaction the following day to this monumental non event on my regional thread. I don't see how anyone can justify the BBC or Met Offices forcast for that night.

    The 3 Counties And East Anglia Spring Weather Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Mark Burton

    No doubt you will all call me a killjoy and kick me off the forum, but I have to say it. I want a thaw! This weather is causing real problems for me, I havent been able to leave the house since it started last Thursday and it's really getting to me. Even if I could stand the cold outdoors (which I cant) my car battery died a sad death the night it hit -12c. The man two doors up fell and broke his hip, the neighbours across the way have no heating as their pipes froze. People cannot get to where they need to be, my OH nearly had to abandon the car on the road trying to come home from work last night.

    I am not enjoying it now. Even the birds are dying because of the cold. I would just like to see even just a short spell of milder weather so life can get back to normal for a while.

    Congrats to Big Lad and his lovely new arrival.

    Ginger

    Anyone wondering about my previous post regarding N Ireland should read this. That's why I want a thaw for them. This is from the Irish thread.

    The 3 Counties And East Anglia Spring Weather Discussion

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Mark Burton

    Oh please, less of the mild rampings, it's very misleading - you've been on the Model Discussion thread so you know it's not going to Warm up - it might be less cold for a while but I doubt that will last for long !!

    This is Icebergs post from the previous Model thread:

    "The Trends on the models this morning are for less Atlantic and more HP.

    ECM is a perfect example of this, as it slowly reduces the atlantic influence with each run, now I would classify the Atlantic as blocked looking at the 00Z ECM(i.e nothing below 1000mb makes it east of Iceland)

    This general theme also seems supported by the other models.

    GFS is the most progressive wrt how far east it pushes the post boxing day front, UKMET less so hence the prediction of moderate snow for western areas for boxing day night by the Met Office.

    All models are rising pressure further into the Atlantic in the longer time frame coupled with a clear signal for another Greenland high to form as we enter January due to a high moving from N.America I think we will still various linkages etc in the models over the next 4 days.

    By Boxing Day the models will likely be starting to firm up on how the next cold shot will arrive, for many areas though there is no sign of anything even remotely mild so snow is likely to hang around for a good many days yet. "

    I think if anyone or anything is being misleading it is the models themselves. No one can say that it is not going to warm up at this stage - look how the models keep flip flopping from mild to cold. It's no good getting agitated with forum members because their opinion differs from the snow hungry masses (myself included) everyone is entitled to their opinion - even if we don't like it

    For me I would like to see a warm up in the West, my daughter is in N Ireland and the situation there is dire - speaking last night she told me that it's like living in a deep freeze, no one can function properly. Weatherwise I just can't call it at the moment, but I know that when the Atlantic wants to make a return it will, and nothing will stop it - not even us!!

    Currently +2C here, warmest it's been for a week.

    Model Output Discussion

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Have been watching this thread for a few days now, with much interest. In my experience of winters over the past 40 odd years, when deep cold makes an early appearence as it has - in fact twice, early on in the season, we don't usually see a fast return to cold weather. If I remember rightly, February and March are usually mild with the odd sleety/ snowy incursions - but they are short lived.

    My gut feeling is that we have seen the worst of the winter, and any future cold spells will be 'normal' short lived affairs - I hope to be proved wrong though! I am not a model watcher, but I enjoy reading your opinions and learning from your expertise.

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