laserguy

For at least the last four months the sun has been exceptionally 'quiet' with practically no sunspots to speak of. Can anyone concisely explain what,if any effect this might have on global temps? This quiet spell obviously cannot be compared with the approximate period 1645-1720 (the Maunder Minimum,which is associated with the 'little ice age' during that period). But what if it endured for very much longer?

Re trends and dire predictions of the future: Late 1970's... "there's an ice age coming,there's an ice age coming" etc,blah blah. History repeating itself? SF,Osmposm,me et al, let's bury the hatchet,agree to disagree and get back on track...please! These debates are great fun AND educational,let's keep 'em like that without getting too worked up?

Hey,I wasn't the only one to agree with Jethro y'know SF,so why single me out?! At times it seems as if this entire discussion is being approached with the fervour of religious zealots,desperately trying to convince the 'other side' that their viewpoint is the right one and that they won't be happy until the 'other side' has conceded defeat upon that one piece of evidence which settles the matter once and for all. We know that's not going to happen though,because as far as I can tell we're all aware of the facts and figures but it's such a close call that our eventual conclusion as an individual is decided upon by our bias and hunches. It's like being presented with four possible answers on WWTBAM,though you might not have a clue what the correct one is you may be inexplicably drawn to one of them. The fact of the matter is this,and there's absolutely no point denying it whatsoever: no one is right,no one is wrong because we just don't know. Get all the world's supercomputers and multiply their power a hundred fold etc etc and the likelyhood is their predictions of any natural process will me wrong. Of course I understand your case regarding trends,but they are and can only be just that:trends. There's nothing to say that trend cannot be suddenly reversed. Or are you going to tell me that's never happened before? This discussion should be fun,let's keep it that way instead of treating the matter of who is right and who is wrong as a matter of grave importance. SF,someone agreed heartily with your post. Does that mean that he too can be compared with the ridiculous analogy of the immigrant bashing skinheads,or does it only apply when someone has a different point of view? Roll on the coming cool down. (I'm getting the crash helmet out right now)!

Brilliant,Jethro. Been trying to say all along that there's far more to climate change than just CO2 and that it has probably a lesser role than natural influences. Got shot down for even suggesting such a thing and probably will again just for agreeing with you, but you really nailed it there. Nice one!

Wow,P3. Just had look at your blog and I really don't know where to start. I'm on holiday now,the kids off school and I'm under pressure from the missus to get off the computer and entertain him,but as time allows I'll try to read as much of it as poss and hopefully respond via your blog. Don't despair,someone's listening and no you don't look like E.Wise (ha ha)!

Scared of thunderstorms? I should be so lucky! I can honestly say that I haven't heard one crack of thunder this summer. Incredible but true. I love them now and get pretty worked up whenever conditions appear to be vaguely right for them,but it wasn't always like that. One of my earliest memories as a kid was the sheer,abject terror displayed by my mother during thundery weather and how she used to sit huddled halfway up the stairs whilst covering herself in blankets and singing/shouting at the top of her voice to drown out the thunder. Being little more than a toddler I followed her example of course! This went on for a few years until one day a school pal and myself were walking home across a football field after lessons. It wasn't raining at the time and there'd been no thunder,but I do recall it being very hot,humid and dark. Then no more than 50 yards in front of us this incredible flash and explosion levelled the pair of us as a bolt of lightning which announced the breaking maelstrom hit the field's metal goalposts. We got up and set off running to my parents house,not thirty seconds away. But my legs were paralysed with fear and I kept tripping up in an attempt to muster more speed than I could possibly attain. By the time we got there my mother was doing her usual trick and my dad thought it was all good fun. Peering out the window I didn't know if what I was seing were raindrops or my own tears! Watching the storm from the safety of the house made it seem harmless after our ordeal and my fears faded away. From that point on I've loved severe weather of all types,no doubt some psychology types will say it's something to do with confronting and mastering your phobias head on. Like someone with arachnophobia have a tarantula climb up their arm! As an aside,can someone clarify whether it's voltage which kills you or amperes? Obviously a lightning bolt has both in spades so it's a moot point,but a couple of years ago I was 'wired up to the mains' whilst messing around with a faulty glue gun. Jeeeeeeeesus!! If the missus hadn't been there to flick the switch I wouldn't be here now.

Bloody Hell,wish I'd never asked but thanks anyway!

Yes,ME!

Damien,or anyone! Where's Bill Giles to be found now?? Please no sarcasm along the lines of "probably sat at home with his feet up watching 'Heartbeat'"!!

Captain bobski,Snowsure,HighPressure and Stormraider. At last,sense spoken here. In My Opinion,of course!

My gut feeling is that this thing will cause a little inconvenience but otherwise come and go without incident. Y'know,like we have 2 centimetres of snow preceded by the most dire warnings.

Bill Giles! I remember him as a kid (me,not him!),and he's the only tv forecaster I ever took seriously! Where is he now?

Actually P3,it was ribster who mentioned the anticipated plateau of temp over the next two years. I did comment on it and as expected someone rubbished my reply,but I've come to expect that. Glad you liked at least parts of my posting!

Oh,please,please,please may it come to pass!!

How I agree,Rustynailer.The thought of a shockingly, shockingly cold and desolate winter with huge drifts and abandoned roads gives me a nice warm rosy glow inside. Bring it on!!!

Calm down,dears! This argument could and indeed will,go on forever because people have already decided from the outset which camp they're in and practically nothing is going to change that. Whenever someone comes up with an irrefutable bit of data the 'other side' responds immediately with another bit of irrefutable data to counter it. And on it goes. What IS for certain though and is equally applicable to both points of view is that the tax payer is going to get hammered. Now I've covered this before (and received a lot of near hysterical and abusive backlash for it),but I am firmly of the opinion that any sentence which contains the words 'government','scientist',and 'climate change' (formerly known as 'global warming') isn't worth the paper it's printed on. Governments and scientists DO have a vested interest. Governments because of the looming energy crisis over fossil fuel depletion,(and the convenience of having a new tax revenue source) and scientists (how many tens of thousands of them does it take to keep coming to the same conclusion) because they've got a nice secure job on the back of all this. Ice ages come and go along with their attendant interglacials. What's new or odd about that? Yes I appreciate that the RATE of change is something else but there are many,many voices trying to be heard who seem to me to have perfectly valid explanations as to why this could be down to influences beyond our control. Please don't ask me to provide links,they're not exactly thin on the ground! The Government hype(that's what this thread is about) and brainwashing of recent years though has led 'the man in the street' to believe that what they are being told is the be all and end all and that there is no other possible explanation of what's going on,if indeed any thing is going on that's not normal. Extreme weather events,whatever the nature of them are nothing new. Oh for a winter of '47 or '63, or maybe a summer like '76 etc. As I've already said somewhere before,Governments and scientists should,if they sincerely believe all they are saying,be making plans right now to DEAL WITH the anticipated effects,not keep telling us ad infinitum that we're killing the planet. WE'VE HEARD YOU,ALRIGHT?! Yes I've heard the voices saying that we shouldn't be gambling with an unknown and that it wouldn't hurt to play safe etc,but for the record I do generally walk to my destination where possible,I'm frugal with energy consumption,don't take foreign holidays, (the ones I do take are restricted to camping ones!) etc,etc. What else would they like me to do,go live in a cave perhaps,only emerging to walk ten miles to work in order to to make some extravagant types even richer and earn money to pay an increased tax which will be diverted to bombing a few camel herders in the Middle East in a dispute over yep you guessed it...fossil fuels! Over and above all this,and I mean this perfectly seriously,so what if the world temperature does increase by Xdegrees over X many decades? Listen up folks,it's no good running around like headless chickens shouting "we're doomed" repeatedly. Personally it would be a disaster for me because I hate warm weather( it's about 20C now and I'm uncomfortable),so MY solution would be to clear off,if possible. I believe (and boy didn't some of you get upset!),that ultimately we are heading for a cooldown in the very near future,but whatever happens,be it extreme cold,intolerable heat and drought,mega violent storms or whatever,we have to ADAPT. Considering Western civilisation's insatiable,voracious appetite for and complete dependance on fossil fuels,that's going to be a pretty tall order unless you as an individual are prepared to kiss goodbye to your way of life as you know it. Let's hope the world does warm up instead of cool down otherwise we would then be REALLY up the creek without a paddle when the oil has gone and we're left with no means of protecting ourselves from the frigid blasts!

Well I've not seen the item you refer to ribster but the first thing that immediately sprung to my admittedly 'cold biased mind' was that,hey is our collective carbon emissions going to also plateau or even go into decline for the next two years? If not,what else other than natural influence could bring about this situation? Pehaps it's the MET's subtle way of realising that the climate is heading for a cool down and has nothing to do with carbon emissions etc,and then in two years time when the 'anticipated' return to rising temps fails to materialise they'll have conveniently forgotten about ever making such a prediction. Whatever,the situation has now become so ridiculous that the causative agent of ANY weather event/perceived change will be assigned entirely to our CO2 emissions. Just my opinion,mind!

15.9C is what I'm going for. But take a look from space and locate the British Isles. On that tiny speck of land what does it really mean,if anything,that the average temp has fluctuated by nth of a degree over a month? I ask perfectly sincerely and would love to be enlightened!

Hi Osmposm! Thanks for for taking the time to read my post and commenting on it. I'll be very happy to direct you to my 'sources' and why I reach the conclusions that I do but, (and I swear this is not a cop-out!), it's gonna have to wait for a week due to crippling work commitments (hey,I've just walked through the door and it's 11.30pm). Suffice to say though,I really don't buy any of this man-made global warming stuff with the possible exception of countless millions of H-bombs going off simultaneously(which of course we haven't seen-yet). Thanks to everyone else who's commented,much appreciated,and I'll be back when time is on my side.Here's to the coming cool down!!

Cheers,kippure. I've plenty more where that came from!

Summer 2007 has been undoubtedly disappointing for most people and businesses,and downright disastrous for more than a few. Personally though,I think it's been just fantastic and a very welcome relief from the intolerable heat of recent summers. I mean,who in their right mind finds pleasure in going to work and going about their daily business when temperatures are 28C+? I sincerely hope that this summer does indeed mark a 'turning point ' and we can look forward to a winter which follows suit. With regard to global warming,I believe that a good analogy is to imagine a roller coaster on its painfully slow ascent up its ramp and its pregnant pause at the apex before the rapid plunge down the other side. Also,I believe the activities of man have about as much chance of influencing the climate as they have of changing the orbit of Pluto through telekinesis,ie none. Any changes to climate much surely be instigated by natural causes such as solar output,geophysical changes etc. It is a well established fact that rises in CO2 FOLLOW an increase in temperature,they never PRECEED it! This comes about as the oceans warm up and in doing so they liberate some of their vast quantities of dissolved CO2. But what causes the oceans to warm up? Think about this for a moment. If you wanted to heat up a bathful of water you wouldn't do it by blowing warm air across it's surface,you'd be at it forever! The heating must be coming from below. As well as releasing CO2 it causes increased evaporation of water which can only go into the atmosphere as water vapour. Water vapour has to condense (which in itself causes cooling) into clouds(which reflect sunlight and further excacerbates the cooling),and while all this is going on the oceans continue to warm up and force more water vapour into the air. Rather than 'the runaway greenhouse effect' which frankly I am sick of hearing about (the root of it all being our need to preserve the dwindling supplies of fossil fuels),the most likely imminent scenario is a rapid plunge into something more akin to an ice age. And that is a million times more scary than the worst imaginings the Government sponsored global warming doom mongers can ever dream up.