J07
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A fair way east for a La Nina cyclone.
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More humid weather again, thanks to lows from the tropics. Even Wellington is getting it this time, but up north dewpoints of 23C and 24C are widespread today. It's 7PM in Wellington and 26/20:
NZWN 180600Z 35017KT 320V020 9999 FEW018 BKN028 26/20 Q0991
NOSIG =
NZWN 180500Z 35016KT 9999 FEW018 BKN028 26/21 Q0992 BECMG
01025G35KT =
NZWN 180400Z 35018KT 320V020 9999 FEW018 BKN028 26/22 Q0993 =
NZWN 180300Z 36021KT 9999 FEW018 BKN028 27/21 Q0994 NOSIG =
NZWN 180200Z 01023KT 9999 FEW014 BKN027 29/21 Q0995 TEMPO 6000
RA =
NZWN 180100Z 01020KT 9999 FEW011 BKN025 26/21 Q0996 TEMPO 6000
RA =
NZWN 180000Z 01021G31KT 9999 FEW011 BKN025 26/21 Q0998 =
A number of locations got highs of 31-33C today, with higher humidity than they would normally receive with such temperatures.
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It was re-classified this morning (18Z) as extra-tropical a few hours after you wrote that Cridders. Goodbye Zelia, you were quite interesting.
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First Wellington forecasts and warnings. It's bad practice to re-classify overnight, so more likely is that 17/18Z (i.e. 6AM tomorrow morning) will be when it officially becomes ex-tropical.
High Seas Forecast: Subtropic
Issued by MetService at 8:32pm 17 January 2011
Forecast: Poor visibility in rain within 120 nautical miles of First Low 1007hPa near 29S 173W moving westsouthwest 5kt. Poor visibility in rain within 180 nautical miles of Second Low 975hPa, Tropical Cyclone Zelia,near 27S 167E moving southeast 30kt. Poor visibility in rain within 120 nautical miles of First Trough 31S 167E 35S 168E 37S 164E moving eastsoutheast 25kt, to Third Low 993hPa near 33S 164E moving southeast 10kt and filling after 180000Z. Throughout much of area east of second and third lows, to 170W: Northerly quarter 25kt at times,tending clockwise about first,second and third lows, with storms and gales as in warnings 318, 320 and 321, and areas of heavy swell in gale areas.Second Trough 34S 151E 36S 154E 40S 158E moving east 35kt.Southwest of second trough:Southwest 25kt.
TCSTORM WARNING 321This affects ocean area(s): SUBTROPIC
AT 7:00pm Monday 17 January 2011
STORM WARNING 321
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone ZELIA [975hPa] centre was located near 27.5 South 167.5 East at 170600 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 27.5S 167.5E at 170600 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southeast 30 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to the centre easing to 45 knots by 171800 UTC.
Expect winds over 48 knots within 40 nautical miles of centre.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre in the sector from south through west to northwest and within 180 nautical miles of centre in the sector from northwest through northeast to south.
Forecast position near 32.7S 170.8E at 171800 UTC
and near 38.5S 173.6E at 180600 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 316.
Issued at 8:31pm Monday 17 January 2011
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HURRICANE WARNING 042 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 17/0103 UTC 2011 UTC.TROPICAL CYCLONE ZELIA CENTRE 970HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9 SOUTH165.0 EAST AT 170000 UTC.POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 24.9S 165.0E AT 170000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 KNOTS. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE,
OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE AND
OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 180 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE,
WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANTAND
WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF THE CENTRE IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 29.2S 168.3E AT 171200 UTC AND NEAR 33.8S 171.3E AT 180000 UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTSEVERY THREE HOURS TO TCWC WELLINGTON. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 041. PRIMARY RESPONSIBILITIES FOR FUTURE WARNINGS ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ZELIA WILL RESTWITH TCWC WELLINGTON.
And here is the forecast for Australia's Norfolk Island:
Norfolk Island Forecast
IDN10008Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology New South Wales Norfolk Island Forecast Issued at 3:00 pm EDT Monday on 17 January 2011 Warning Summary at issue timeTropical Cyclone Warning for Severe Tropical Cyclone ZELIA issued by New ZealandMet Service at 12:55 NFT.Hurricane Warning for Ocean Waters Weather SituationA CYCLONE WARNING IS IN FORCE FOR NORFOLK ISLAND
At 11:30 NFT, Severe Tropical Cyclone Zelia, was located near 24.9S 165.0E about550 km (300 nm) to the northwest of the island and moving southeastwards atabout 45 km/hr (25 knots). Its forecast track has it passing close to NorfolkIsland this evening as a Category 2 or 3 system, which would produce destructiveto very destructive winds, torrential rain and high to phenomenal seas at theIsland. There is a chance Tropical Cyclone Zelia will pass northeast of theisland rather than southwest as previously forecast.Please refer to the current Tropical Cyclone Advice for Norfolk Island for moredetails, issued by the New Zealand Met Service at 1255 NFT and due to be revisedaround 1900 NFT on 17 January 2011.
Forecast for the rest of Monday: Windy. Cloudy periods. Showers developing this afternoon, increasing to rain andbecoming heavy, with torrential downpours expected this evening and overnight.NE winds 30/40 km/h (15/20 knots), increasing to damaging gale force thisevening, with average speeds of 75km/h (40 knots) gusting 110km/h (60 knots).The winds should then rapidly rise to destructive storm force during the eveningand overnight, average speed 95km/h (50 knots) gusting 150km/h (80 knots), andpossibly as high as very destructive hurricane force, average speed 120km/h (65knots) gusting to 185km/h (100 knots) close to midnight.Combined seas rising to high to phenomenal during the evening and overnight.
Forecast for Tuesday: Windy. Rain, heavy at times at first with possible torrential downpours. Easingby the afternoon. N/NW'ly winds 95km/h (50 knots) gusting 150km/h (80 knots)early, but possibly reaching 120km/h (65 knots) gusting to 185km/h (100 knots).W/NW winds gradually decreasing below gale force during the morning andcontinuing to ease through the day. W/SW'ly 20/40 km/h (10/20 knots) by theevening.
High to phenomenal seas moderating during the morning. Heavy NE/NW swellmoderating.
Precis: Cyclonic conditions easing. Min: 22 Max: 26
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Brisbane's final track map for Zelia.
The next issue will be done by RSMC Nadi. It looks like they will get it for about 12 hours and then it will pass to RSMC Wellington.
Brisbane have it becoming a tropical low shortly after crossing 30S.
So on the whole it's been a pretty consistent forecast for this system.
Details:
Time (EST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)Longitude
(decimal deg.)Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)0hr4 pm January 16319.0S158.7E35+6hr10 pm January 16320.9S160.4E95+12hr4 am January 17322.8S162.1E130+18hr10 am January 17325.0S163.8E155+24hr4 pm January 17327.3S165.5E185+36hr4 am January 18tropical low32.3S168.6E230+48hr4 pm January 18tropical low38.3S171.4E285
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Here is the JTWC track of Zelia.
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Vania is now an ex-TC and has reverted to its original designation of TD03F
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A20 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADIJan 15/0102 UTC 2011 UTC.TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03F EX-TROPICAL CYCLONE VANIA CENTRE 988HPA WASANALYSED NEAR 24.4S 167.0E AT 150000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ONMTSAT IR/VIS IMAGERY WITH ANIMATION AND PERIPHERAL SURFACEOBSERVATIONS. OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE PAST 24HOURS. LLCC EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH OF THESYSTEM. SST AROUND 26C. SYSTEM CURRENTLY STEERED BY DEEP LAYER MEANNORTHERLY FLOW. DVORAK ASSESSMENT BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH LLCCGREATER THAN 0.75 DEGREE FROM DG YIELDING DT=2.0 MET=2.0 PT=2.0. FTBASED ON DT, THUS T2.0/2.5/W1.0/24HRS. MOST GLOBAL MODELS EVENTUALLYMOVE THE CYCLONE SOUTH WITH FURTHER WEAKENING. THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON EX-TC VANIA.
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Latest BoM track puts Norfolk Island in the firing line, again, and maintains the cyclone as a Category 3 despite it getting pretty close to 30S by that point (when it crosses 25S it becomes RSMC Wellington's responsibility, and prior to that when it crosses 160E it becomes RSMC Nadi's responsibility, so it looks like this TC will be held by 3 offices during its life.)
The interaction with ex-TC Vania will be interesting, and the combined system, whatever structure it resembles, will reach NZ on Tuesday.
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It may merge with a weakening trough pushing up the South Island (a fairly classic scenario here), but most models want to keep them distinct. The GFS has been sticking to its guns for days now, and likewise the ECMWF. The latter is a far worse scenario for NZ, but given how quickly it moves we may escape fairly lightly.
The charts over the last few days have been so strongly La Nina. Amazing easterly anomalies right through the tropics and subtropics in this part of the world. Inland parts of NSW, QLD and VIC are under an extremely warm moist northerly flow from the tropics.
Note that BoM have a tropical low just off the QLD coast, expected to become a TC at some point, and in the medium range it may have an effect on Vania.
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Yes, it's pretty normal for Manali to get snow in winter. Perhaps the quantity is unusual, not sure. It's relatively low elevation for that area though, given there are passes over 5000m in the area.
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TD03F looks like it will have a significant impact on both Vanuatu and New Caledonia even if it fails to make TC strength. But Nadi have a high potential of it becoming a TC, and it wouldn't be surprising if it were being named in the next 24 hours.
Often a sign things may kick off when we get very strong highs in the mid latitudes or further south, combined with a surge of equatorial westerlies. Both of these things happened a few days ago.
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Wow i cant even imagine how airless and muggy a 23c dewpoint would feel, i can imagine there some of the thunderstorms must of been intense with that amount of moisture in the atmosphere.
Not sure what the highest dewpoint ever recorded in the UK is, the highest ive recorded here is just over 20c.
The TS weren't too impressive as the upper air was quite warm, and the convergence that they formed on shifted fairly quickly.
AFAIK, the highest dewpoint NZ has recorded is either 24C or 25C. Not sure about the UK. In the world, the record is 35C at Dharan in Saudi Arabia.
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In true La Nina fashion it's been pretty warm and humid everywhere. Dewpoints of over 20C have been fairly common up north.
Today the conditions over places north of the Central Plateau were essentially tropical, and little different to many observations through the tropical Pacific. Dewpoints reached 23C in isolated spots, and were around 21C for most locations, with maxima varying from 25C to 30C.
Sea breeze convergence formed heavy showers over Northland and a few thunderstorms.
There's an easterly change pushing in tomorrow which should reduce dewpoints to a more comfortable 15C in the north.
METAR from Auckland Airport at 3PM today:
NZAA 070200Z 21008KT 9999 FEW025 BKN030 26/22 Q1013 TEMPO 6000
SHRA =
Most unpleasant! But in Fiji it was 25/25 which is even worse!
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Ahh right, I didnt realise there was a Tropical Cyclone, i try to keep an eye on them but I must have missed Tasha.
Almost everyone missed it! It was named around 3AM and lasted maybe 12 hours at TC strength, it wasn't well predicted in advance IIRC.
The problems up there will surely be compounded with an above average TC season predicted, and an above average and early start to the Monsoon. They won't be out of the woods till late April.
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It turned out quite serious for much of the country south of the Central Plateau. Wellington hilltops managed a gust of 107mph. NIWA summarise it in their monthly report here:
http://www.niwa.co.n...r2010_FINAL.pdf
It was an exceptionally warm December, although the national high of 33C is not particularly extreme (it was lower by 0.1C than Novembers extreme maximum).
For rainfall, Mt Cook Village got over 300mm in 24 hours during that event (even though it's east of the Divide). So it seems reasonable that some mountain locations did get 500mm.
Not sure what the annual totals are, but on 25th December: http://www.nzherald....jectid=10695809
It always amuses me, this contrast, given that Clyde and Milford Sound are about 60 miles apart yet manage a huge x20 factor in their rainfall pretty much every year.
"The most rainfall so far for year, not surprisingly, is Milford Sound," Ms Griffiths said.
Latest figures from NIWA measured 6152mm (just over 6 metres) of rain in the area.
The driest area was in central Otago, which Ms Griffiths said was not unusual. Clyde, the driest spot in the country, received no more than 319 mm for the year.
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Wellington Airport TAF:
TAF AMD NZWN 270019Z 2700/2724 35025G35KT 9999 -DZ BKN020
BECMG 2706/2708 35040G55KT
TEMPO 2712/2724 4000 RA BKN008
BECMG 2714/2716 35055G70KT
BECMG 2720/2722 34040G55KT
BECMG 2722/2724 34025G35KT =
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Some alarming numbers in here! 500mm in 27 hours in the Alps. Winds may gust to 100mph in the capital city, and much worse in the mountains.
Forecast for Cook Strait, then Wellington Harbour:
Northwest 40 knots rising to northerly 50 knots tonight and to 65 knots early morning. Easing to northwest 35 knots late morning then changing southerly 45 knots Tuesday evening.
Tuesday: Northerly rising to 50 knots gusting 75 knots early morning. Easing to northwest 25 knots gusting 35 knots in the afternoon, changing southerly 30 knots gusting 45 knots in the evening.
http://m.metservice.com/warnings/swx
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING.
ISSUED BY MetService AT 9:32 am 27-Dec-2010
VERY HEAVY RAIN ABOUT THE SOUTH ISLAND WEST COAST, SOUTHERN ALPS AND OTAGO TODAY AND EARLY TOMORROW SPREADS TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NORTH ISLAND ON TUESDAY SEVERE GALE NORTHERLIES ABOUT CENTRAL NEW ZEALAND ON TUESDAY
A cold front will lie slow-moving over the southern South Island today before sweeping quickly across the remainder of the country tomorrow.
A strong moist northwesterly flow ahead of this front will bring very heavy rain to the South Island west coast and the Southern Alps today and early tomorrow, and to central and southern parts of the North Island on Tuesday. Heaviest falls are expected about the Westland ranges where up to 500mm is forecast, with some exceptionally intense falls at times. Elsewhere between 200 and 300mm of rain is forecast for parts of Buller, Nelson, the Tararua ranges, Mt Taranaki, and also the headwaters of the Canterbury and Otago rivers. Other areas which can expect heavy rain during the next couple of days include Otago, Marlborough, Wellington, the central North Island, and the ranges of eastern Bay of Plenty. This heavy rain will cause river and stream levels to rise rapidly, and there may be slips, surface flooding and poor visibility making driving conditions hazardous.
North to northwesterly winds are also expected to reach severe gale about many parts of central New Zealand for a time on Tuesday, with the strongest winds near Cook Strait where gusts may reach 160km/hr. Gusts of 120km/hr or higher can also be expected elsewhere from Taupo to North Canterbury. Gusts of this strength could cause damage to trees, powerlines and insecure buildings, as well as make driving conditions hazardous especially for motorcyclists and high sided vehicles.
This is a very significant event with heavy rain and severe gales affecting many areas. People across all of New Zealand could be affected, and everyone is advised to keep up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings.
HEAVY RAIN WARNING
AREA/S AFFECTED
Fiordland
FORECAST
Periods of heavy rain are expected today. In the 12 hours from 9am to 9pm today (Monday), 60-80mm are likely, mainly north of George Sound.
FREEZING LEVEL: About 2800 metres.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Westland south of Franz Josef.
FORECAST
Rain is expected to become heavier today. In the 24 hours from 9am Monday to 9am Tuesday, 200-250mm of rain is expected about the ranges. Heaviest falls should today, with rainfall rates of 20-30mm/hr.
FREEZING LEVEL: About 3000 metres.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Westland north of Franz Josef
FORECAST
Periods of very heavy rain are expected today and tomorrow morning. In the 27 hours from 9am today (Monday) to midday Tuesday, 300-500mm of rain is expected about the ranges, and up to 200mm near the coast. Some exceptional intensities are likely, with rainfall rates reaching 30-50mm/hr at times.
FREEZING LEVEL: Above 3000 metres.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Otago
FORECAST
1. Heavy rain is expected about the main divide of the Southern Alps today and tomorrow morning. In the 24 hours from 9am today (Monday) to 9am Tuesday, 150-200mm of rain is expected near the main divide, with about 100mm spilling over to within 10km east of the divide. Intensities reaching 20-30mm/hr at times. The greatest accumulations will be north of Lake Wakatipu.
2. Over remaining parts of Otago, widespread rain is expected to develop this afternoon and evening in a cooler southerly flow, and continue through to Tuesday afternoon. In the 24 hours from midday Monday to midday Tuesday, 75-100mm of rain may accumulate in some places. Heaviest falls are likely north of Dunedin and Alexandra.
FREEZING LEVEL: About 3000 metres.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Headwaters of the main Canterbury lakes and rivers.
FORECAST
Heavy rain is expected today and tomorrow morning. In the 27 hours from 9am today (Monday) to midday Tuesday, 250-350mm of rain is expected near the main divide, and up to 150mm spilling over to 15km east of the divide. Maximum intensities of 30-40mm/hr from Monday evening.
FREEZING LEVEL: Above 3000 metres.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Buller
FORECAST
Rain is expected to become heavier today. In the 30 hours from 9am today (Monday) to 3pm Tuesday, 200-300mm of rain is expected, particularly about the ranges. Heaviest falls overnight when rainfall rates may reach 30-40mm/hr.
FREEZING LEVEL: About 3000 metres.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Nelson
FORECAST
Heavy rain is expected to develop this evening. In the 16 hours from 6pm today (Monday) to 10am Tuesday, expect 200-300mm of rain about the ranges of Northwest Nelson, and up to 100mm elsewhere especially near the Bryant ranges. Intensities may reach 20-30mm/hr overnight.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Marlborough
FORECAST
Periods of heavy rain are expected on Tuesday morning. In the 12 hours from midnight tonight (Monday) to midday Tuesday, expect 100-150mm about the Richmond ranges and Marlborough Sounds, and 60-80mm elsewhere in Marlborough.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Wellington and the Kapiti Coast
FORECAST
A period of heavy rain is expected on Tuesday morning. In the 9 hours from 3am to midday Tuesday, 60-80mm of rain is likely, with rainfall rates reaching 10-15mm/hr at times.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Tararua Range
FORECAST
Heavy rain is expected on Tuesday. In the 15 hours from midnight to 3pm Tuesday, 200-300mm is expected, mainly about the southern Tararuas.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Taranaki
FORECAST
Heavy rain is expected on Tuesday. In the 15 hours from midnight to 3pm Tuesday, 200-300mm of rain is expected on Mt Taranaki, and 60-80mm elsewhere (mainly north and east of the mountain). Rainfall rates may reach 30-40mm/hr on the mountain.
AREA/S AFFECTED
The central North Island high country from Te Kuiti to Tongariro National Park.
FORECAST
Heavy rain is expected on Tuesday. In the 12 hours between 4am and 4pm Tuesday, expect up to 200mm about the mountains of Tongariro National Park, and 60-80mm elsewhere.
AREA/S AFFECTED
The ranges of eastern Bay of Plenty (east of Kawerau)
FORECAST
Periods of heavy rain are expected on Tuesday. In the 15 hours between 6am and 9pm Tuesday, up to 100mm of rain is likely.
STRONG WIND WARNING
AREA/S AFFECTED
Marlborough, excluding the Sounds
FORECAST
North to northwest winds are expected to reach gale in exposed places from late this evening through to about mid-morning Tuesday, with possible gusts of 130km/hr.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Wellington and the Marlborough Sounds
FORECAST
Northerly gales are expected to become severe in places from later this evening, with damaging gusts of around 160km/hr likely through to around midday Tuesday.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Wairarapa
FORECAST
North to northwest winds are expected to rise to gale overnight, with gusts of 150km/hr possible through to early Tuesday afternoon.
AREA/S AFFECTED
The central and lower North Island from Taranaki to Taupo down to Kapiti.
FORECAST
Northerly winds are expected to rise to gale in exposed places overnight Monday peaking in the morning before easeing from the west early afternoon. Gusts of 120km/hr are likely in exposed places and gusts of 150km/h are possible about higher terrain, especially around the Central Plateau.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Gisborne and Hawkes Bay
FORECAST
North to northwest gales are expected to develop about exposed places early Tuesday morning and should ease late afternoon. Gusts of 130km/hr are possible in exposed places during this time, especially near the ranges.
AREA/S AFFECTED
Inland North Canterbury
FORECAST
North to northwest winds are expected to reach gale in exposed places from this evening through to early Tuesday morning, with possible gusts of 120km/hr, especially near the foothills.
NEXT SEVERE WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED AT OR BEFORE 9:00 pm Monday 27-Dec-2010
Forecast prepared by: John Crouch and Andy Downs
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Yes the Australian weather sites are excellent, and accurate, considering they have such a vast country to cover. All the sites I've seen suggest that Adelaide- with a Mediterranean climate- doesn't normally get more than about 25mm of rain in December, with several years having next to none- this run of rainy days must be quite unusual?
Just seen the sat pic and pressure charts and they show depressions skimming the south Australian coast- shouldn't they be down south of New Zealand at this time of year?
Pretty much. Normally in the summer months the South Australian Bight is where you find Highs, with a secondary maximum (80% of the frequency) just west of the North Island (New Zealand). But you can certainly gets lows in there at any time of the year.
This season there has been a lot of blocking over New Zealand, and systems have been held up in Australian waters bringing some shoddy weather to the main centres there.
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<br /><br /><br /><br />No, its arctic volcanos specifically that Eye In The Sky is talking about. These are the ones that can help to create Straospheric Warmings and increased blocking years after the eruptions, or so the theory goes.<br />The volcanic eruptions that impact on global climate are always located in the tropics. It's the only way to get wide dispersal. But the idea of arctic volcanoes leading to stratospheric warming is interesting.
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The La Nina is having an interesting effect in the Southern Hemisphere. It's pretty much what we expect. Earlier, wetter wet season (been notably "cold" and wet in Darwin of late) in the tropics. Subtropical high pressure belt further south than normal. Cooler and wetter down Australia's west coast.
We've seen a number of weeks of warm temperatures, excessive sunshine and little rainfall across New Zealand. Temperatures at official stations have reached 32-33C on a few occasions. Not unprecedented for November, but often these happen in hot, transient NW flows ahead of a wet, cool change. Most of this heat is down to surface heating and strong upper ridging.
It doesn't look like things will change soon, which makes GPs predictions of further La Nina strengthening somewhat ominous for farmers over here, but will delight people about to hit holiday season.
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The weather has been quite boring for the last few weeks. Both islands saw their first official 30C maxima of the year this week, with the South Island winning by a few days. The highest temperature so far this month is 31C in Blenheim. In rather typical La Nina fashion, warm and humid weather has been afflicting the northern part of the North Island. Dewpoints of 20C have been experienced over the last few days in Bay of Plenty, Auckland and Northland. A fresher change has worked its way through now.
High pressure remains in control throughout the coming week. Warm weather should spill onto the east of the South Island by the end of the week, with 30C likely again.
So it's basically like an early start to summer, and the pattern seems unlikely to budge much until April although I expect we are not far from getting decent subtropical lows and ex cyclones hitting the North Island, bringing lots of rain.
8PM yesterday in Auckland:
NZAA 200700Z 03006KT 210V180 9999 SCT020 20/18 Q1012 TEMPO 6000
RADZ BKN014 =
2PM today in Auckland:
NZAA 210100Z 22020KT 9999 BKN040 17/08 Q1012 NOSIG =
Two quite different days there.
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6PM yesterday in Christchurch:
NZCH 040500Z 33016KT CAVOK 23/07 Q1002
4PM today in Christchurch:
NZCH 050300Z 21020KT 5000 RA BKN008 BKN015 09/09 Q1008
Now guess which day Hillary Clinton decided to visit
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You can get GFS charts on www.weatheronline.co.nz for the NZ region, it's pretty good.
October is over and it was very sunny. Nelson almost beat the all-time October sunshine record for any location but not quite! They were also very dry.
Average maximum of 19C, 296 hours of sunshine (9.5 hours a day), 7mm of rain....not bad for the middle of Spring.
There was some seriously cold weather mid month, with some Northland towns only seeing maxima of 12C!
Spectacularly sunny and very dry in most areas
- Rainfall: Extremely dry in Nelson and northern and western parts of the North Island. Very wet in Gisborne and Hawkes Bay. Rather dry elsewhere.
- Sunshine: Spectacularly sunny, with many records broken.
- Temperatures: Near average temperatures for many regions. Cooler than usual for the east coast of the North Island, as well as parts of Buller, The Sounds, and near Kaitaia. Warmer than average in the southwest South Island.
October rainfall was more than double normal (at least 200 percent) in Gisborne and Hawkes Bay. But for the remainder of the country, it was very dry, reflecting the prevalence of anticyclones. Rainfalls were well below average (less than 40 percent of normal) across much of the North Island (excluding the east coast). It was the driest October in Nelson since records began in 1941, with less than 10 percent of normal rainfall. Elsewhere in the South Island it was rather dry, with rainfall between 50 and 80 percent of normal, except for Southland, which experienced closer to normal rainfall. By the end of October, larger than normal soil moisture deficits had developed in much of Northland, coastal Nelson, mid Canterbury, and North Otago.
Sunshine totals were well above average (more than 125 percent of normal) across most of the South Island, and the north and west of the North Island. Many October sunshine records were broken. It was the sunniest October since records began at Kaitaia, Te Kuiti, Taumarunui, Takaka and Nelson, Timaru, Dunedin, and Balclutha. Sunshine totals were also slightly up for the eastern North Island (with sunshine totals between 100 and 115 percent of normal), despite the much higher than normal October rainfall there.
Extremely cold temperatures affected the country on the 11th and 12th, followed by unusually warm spells on the 16th and 30th. Even with the extreme swings in temperature, monthly mean temperatures were near average (within 0.5°C of average) for much of the country. The exceptions were above average temperatures recorded in the southwest of the South Island (between 0.5°C and 1.2°C above average), and below average temperatures (between 0.5°C and 1.2°C below average) in Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, the Wairarapa, parts of Buller, the Sounds, and around Kaitaia. The New Zealand national average temperature was 11.7°C (0.5°C below the 1971–2000 October average).
Further Highlights:- The highest temperature recorded was 28.4°C, recorded at Waiau on the 16th.
- The lowest temperature recorded was -4.4°C, recorded at Hanmer on the 12th.
- The highest 1-day rainfall was 151 mm recorded at Patutahi (Gisborne) on the 13th (a new record there).
- The highest wind gust was 159 km/hr, recorded at Puysegur Point on the 16th (a near-record there).
- Of the six main centres, Tauranga was the warmest, Wellington the wettest, and Christchurch the coolest and driest. All of the main centres except Wellington were extremely sunny, but Tauranga and Christchurch topped the group, recording 246 and 245 hours of bright sunshine, respectively.
New Zealand Summer Weather
in Weather Around The World
Posted
Loads of rain up north with this low at the moment. As the warm front passed through Auckland the airmass changed significantly:
NZAA 222000Z 14017KT 2000 RA SCT015 BKN025 16/15 Q0996
NZAA 222300Z 03026G38KT 9999 RA SCT007 BKN010 23/22 Q0995
9AM followed by midday Metars.