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J07

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Posts posted by J07

  1. I'd like to add this snippet

    Very interesting read. Pilots often complain about the forecast, regardless of the country. Swap "Met Office" for "Met Service" or "Bureau of Meteorology" and you have yourself a realistic conversation that may take place in NZ or Aus.

    I did have a snigger at this though

    "the weather forecasts on telly these days are presented by a bunch of meterosexuals who couldn't plot a tephigram if their life depended on it"
    considering the thread that we already have complaining about weather presenters!

    The Met Office is indispensable. I trust in meteorologists more than I will ever trust in amateurs, no matter how experienced or skilled. This is just because I know meteorologists know their stuff from the ground up, the basics - no matter how dry and boring, are likely ingrained in their minds. Now tell me this - how many "met geeks" would carry on doing what they do if they had to derive the vorticity equation on a few sheets of A4 paper? Probably not that many. And fair enough, because it's pretty damn boring. But it is important for a grasp of the fundamentals.

    There's something to be said for an understanding of the fundamental physical processes that occur in the atmosphere - yes I am talking about thermodynamics and fluid dynamics - and being able to take those up through levels of complexity when considering an analysis or forecast. I'd take that skill any day over a "model watcher", and really that's the way it's likely to be always.

  2. Just read our August 2009 climate summary. Wettest place for the month was Milford with 852 mm. Driest place was Waipawa with 8 mm. Yes, the wettest place was over 100 times wetter than the driest place...

    Highest temperature was 26C, lowest was -9C. Not a bad spread of 35C there!

    Highest one-day rainfall was 260mm. I note it took trebor several weeks to get a figure like that this month!

  3. Summer index for Wellington, New Zealand for last two "summers"* :

    2007-2008: 290

    2008-2009: 272

    07/08 was considered the best summer for 10 years, both summers were quite sunny, pushing close to 700 combined sunshine hours. Both had fewer than 30 raindays and average highs were 21-22C.

    * Somewhat hard to know if the index goes for or against us....I used Dec-Feb as "summer", but March is almost always warmer than December, and drier, but December is usually sunnier!

    Using this definition we also lose a few days of sunshine compared to the UK due to the shortness of February.

    Just checked, if summer were defined Jan-March then we increase to 292 in 2008.

    In 2009 we increase by only 0.1!

    Anyway, more research would be required, but it goes some way to ratifying the belief that March over here is summer and December is Spring...

  4. Hard to imagine a more typical Spring day really....

    Gusty northwesterlies here, gusting over 50 knots at times, plenty of sunshine in the city though and a high of 15C. Standard September fare!

    Likewise the rest of the country, thunderstorms down south - some severe , northwesterlies ahead of the front and a nationwide high of 21C.

  5. I've heard little good weather news from the family in Wales. A brief, warm spell sometime in June which they enjoyed. Aside from that, another poor year. It's the third consecutive August where they've had lower sunshine hours than us (this year: 175 vs 145), which was winter vs summer is kind of pitiful. It's almost put me off visiting home in August again - though I hold out hope for a good year around the corner!

  6. I've held off on this because I like the seasons based on the sun, but for a few weeks now very Spring-like weather has been dominant, and even with a cold southerly on the way later this week the general hemispheric trend looks like Spring rather than winter. That means westerlies. Lots and lots of westerlies.

    So far this month it's been pretty damn mild/warm for many areas. Wet in the west. Dry in the east. Sunny for most places. We'll be close to 170 sunshine hours when August ends, which is really good but still not a record (2007 was sunnier).

    Temperatures of interest so far this month:

    Wellington's warmest ever August day with 20C recorded at some valley stations.

    Napiers possible warmest ever August day with 24C.

    Yesterday 9 towns hit or exceeded 20C.

    A warm windy situation affects NZ today. Gusts to 140km/h from the northwest. Warm in the east, and mostly dry, with plentiful high and mid level cloud. Humid in the north, with dewpoints up to 18C recorded.

    http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/2779025/Start-of-the-golden-weather

    (from 23rd August)

    If you thought there was a hint of spring in the air, you're right. After an extremely cold winter, temperatures for the first few weeks of August have been one to two degrees warmer than normal around the country.

    Last week, magnolias and cherry blossoms were out in style in Auckland, and daffodils and other spring bulbs were bravely beginning to bloom in Wellington and Christchurch.

    And the good news is that the outlook is stable. Average temperatures and rainfall - including everything from Nelson's 200-odd hours of sunshine and 90mm of rain for a typical October, to Milford Sound's 690mm of rain, or Dunedin's paltry 145 hours of sunshine - are expected over the next three months.

    Senior climate scientist Georgina Griffiths from the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (Niwa) said that after the record-setting cold month of May, and a chilly June and July, spring was beginning. "Spring has sprung a wee bit early and the expectation is everything is back to normal."

    Spring is usually considered to start in September and go through to November.

    But it may not be such good news for summer and the Christmas holidays. Waiting in the wings is an El Nino weather pattern - a temporary increase in sea temperatures in the Pacific that arrives at irregular intervals every few years and causes weather changes around the globe. Griffiths said Niwa was watching the seas in the tropical South Pacific and the corresponding changes in the atmosphere, which were currently looking "El Nino-like".

    If the El Nino conditions continue to intensify it would mean more frequent and stronger south-westerlies, and the possibility of drought for the northern and eastern areas of both islands as higher temperatures and the wind dried out the soil.

    Not every El Nino is the same but the weather pattern generally means cooler summer air and sea temperatures for most of New Zealand - which could be a dampener for holiday makers. "Going swimming in an El Nino can be notably cooler," said Griffiths.

    But some areas are likely to escape the cool El Nino weather, especially northern and eastern regions including Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, Nelson, Marlborough and Canterbury, because the wind tends to become dry and warm up as it travels over hills.

    Other areas that may experience a warmer summer compared to the rest of the country include Northland, Coromandel, Wairarapa and the Bay of Plenty. It could be wetter than normal in Buller, Westland, Fiordland and possibly Southland and Taranaki.

    Predicting weather a long time in advance was difficult and forecasters said that in around six weeks they would have a better idea of what summer would be like.

    But around the country it seems spring fever has already hit. There has been an influx of visitors at the Auckland Botanic Gardens, which features a "spring valley" walk with magnolias, camellias, blossoms and daffodils.

    Visitors were last week also enjoying spring blooms in Wellington, while in Christchurch the daffodils were just beginning to poke their heads through the ground and the magnolias were out. Wellington visitor service officer Charmaine Scott said the fragrant walk in the Botanic Garden was living up to its name and the magnolias had come out early.

    "I think spring is here a month early."

    And the warmer weather also brings more activity on the exercise front: gyms around the country are reporting customers coming in to prepare for bikini season.

    post-7526-75970_thumb.jpg

  7. A good one here! Biggest I've felt, mildly scary due to the time that it struck, there was the most shaking of any quake I've felt and also the loudest bang.

    A large earthquake in Wellington early this morning shook locals out of bed but there were no immediate reports of damage.

    The tremor, measuring 5.2 in magnitude, hit at 2.10am, GNS Science reported.

    It was centred 20km south of Wellington and was 30km deep.

    It was followed by a 4.3 aftershock at 3.52am.

    Police were inundated by 111 calls from people wanting more information on the quake but had no reports of damage, a central police communications spokesman said.

    GNS Science duty seismologist Ken Gledhill said the first earthquake was felt from the Kapiti Coast to the top of the South Island.

    More than 100 reports of shaking were received by the GeoNet website within 25 minutes of the earthquake.

    The GeoNet website crashed briefly from heavy traffic following the quake.

  8. Not ideal for ski-ing in the foothills of the alps today!

    Last Update Wed, 26 Aug 09, 06:11 AM

    Status Closed

    Last Fall 5 cm, 25 Aug 2009

    Road Closed

    The access road will remain closed all day as strong winds are creating hazardous driving conditions.

    Snow Lower mountain snow depth: 140 cm

    Upper mountain snow depth: 160 cm

    Snow surface: Machine Groomed

    Weather Wind and Snow, 2°C

    At 6am we have severe NW gales and are recording wind strengths in excess of 130km/h in the base area and 200km/h on the ridgeline. The wind is not forecast to ease sufficiently to enable safe operation of any of our lifts today. On a more positive note, we have received approx 10cm of wind affected snow on the upper mountain with approx 2-5cm of wetter snow at the base lodge.

  9. All from WeatherZone.com.au

    While a series of fronts are bringing patchy light rain and showers to southern WA, coastal South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania, the rest of the country is experiencing unprecedented temperatures for this time of the year.

    Last night, parts of NSW experienced their warmest August night in decades and today parts of Queensland suffered their hottest August day on record, with temperatures more representative of mid summer.

    In South Australia, overnight temperatures in the Northeast and Northwest Pastoral regions were up to 12 degrees warmer than average. Ernabella dropped down to 18 degrees, their warmest August night in 12 years while Moomba reached a whopping 35 degrees during the day after a low of 19 degrees, their warmest August night and day for 14 years.

    Further north across the NT border, the Alice Springs region struggled through one of their hottest August day on record, with temperatures between 10 and 13 degrees above average. At 35 degrees, Alice Springs had their warmest August day since records began 67 years ago. Yuendumu at 35 and Jervois at 37 also had their hottest August day in 47 years.

    ---

    Some of the hottest August weather in recorded history has brought summer temperatures to Queensland.

    The heat, also affecting parts of New South Wales, the Northern Territory and South Australia, has lifted Sunday's maximums up to 16 degrees above average. The heat wave is now into its third day with many stations posting new August records on Saturday, only to break them a day later.

    Cunnamulla, in the Maranoa, recorded 37 degrees today. That is a huge 16 above average and their hottest August day in 102 years of records. Bedourie, in the Channel Country, saw another 38 degrees, their third consecutive day above 36 degrees.

    Monday looks set again for some more records to fall as winds strengthen from the west and northwest. All eyes are on Brisbane which should make it into the low 30's. The heat and forecast gusty winds has led to a fire weather warning being issued for the eastern Warrego, Maranoa, Darling downs, Granite Belt, Wide Bay and Burnett and the South East Coast.

    Tuesday will see another hot day before a weak cool change tries to push through late on Tuesday. Further cooling on Thursday and Friday should bring maximums closer to average, before warming again.

    ----

    Meanwhile....

    As much of eastern Australia bakes in summer-like temperatures, winter is set to make a wild return to the southeast.

    Victoria and Tasmania stand in the way of a violent reminder that we are indeed not in the middle of January. South Australia, the ACT and southern New South Wales will also feel the cold.

    A vigorous cold front is currently tracking across the Bight, brimming with storms, rain and gale force winds. Adelaide will be the first to feel the wrath of winter as temperatures fall to around 15 degrees on Monday. Winds will make it feel colder with possible gusts beyond 100km/h on Monday and Tuesday.

    Victoria and Tasmania will be next later on Monday and into Tuesday. Gales with potential gusts beyond 100km/h will be a genuine risk across much of Victoria. With thunderstorms and rain, it will make for quite a wild start to the week. Temperatures in Melbourne look likely to fall as low as 13 degrees on Tuesday, although with the winds it will feel colder. Canberra is expected to also drop to a chilly 11 degrees on Tuesday.

    The icy blast should give some decent snowfall to most resorts, especially on Tuesday, with blizzards and falls up to around 30 or even 40cm.

  10. Thank you OON, that's awfully kind. They aren't very big at all....but are big enough to sustain permanent snow in winter. The highest in view is Mt Hector, which is somewhere around 1500-1600m. Apparently in some countries they still think in "feet", and it is just over 5000 of those rather obscure measures.

    The rest, not too sure, but open tops implies above about 1100m - they look in the rough region of 1300-1400m to me.

  11. I don't think there's any shame in asking for clarification, you're a scientist yourself so you must know how important it is to grasp basics. *Especially* when it comes to thermodynamics, which is conceptually one of the hardest branches of physics, and meteorology is so much about thermodynamics and fluid dynamics.

    “Thermodynamics is a funny subject. The first time you go through it, you don't understand it at all. The second time you go through it, you think you understand it, except for one or two small points. The third time you go through it, you know you don't understand it, but by that time you are so used to it, it doesn't bother you anymore.”

    — Arnold Sommerfeld, when asked why he had never written a book on the subject (c.1950) [11]

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